ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Good news to get observations and that will be Recon that is flying now.Follow the recon thread to see how the mission is going with the data.

[GCANE]

Recon in the air.
Going to be a short trip.

[SoupBone]

Sidebar conversation, but relevant to this system. Does it not seem like systems in the last several years have been much larger rainmakers, or am I just dealing with Harvey anxiety? The forecast rainfall totals for this system are very high, and someone could see some serious flooding in its wake.

[artist]

https://www.kplctv.com/2019/07/10/calca ... er-threat/
All Calcasieu Parish schools and facilities will be closed Friday, July 12, due to the threat of severe weather.

[StormPyrate]

It is just amazing to me how far all this has come. I moved to New Orleans in 2000, and started watching hurricanes closely for obvious reasons.
Sitting here watching the RAMMB Slider it occurs to me
This thing resembles the "surprise storms" of the past. Where not that far long ago we would not have even known this thing was brewing at this time.
Now the Hurricane center is all over it, and you can actually watch it form in high res satellite imagery in almost real time.
Bonus is watching the conversation of people about what might happen as it evolves.
Wonder where we will be in another 19 years

[xironman]

Sidebar conversation, but relevant to this system. Does it not seem like systems in the last several years have been much larger rainmakers, or am I just dealing with Harvey anxiety? The forecast rainfall totals for this system are very high, and someone could see some serious flooding in its wake.

Probably not appropriate for this thread, but yeah, the known increase in water vapor with the temperature rise in the atmosphere increases the likelihood of extreme precipitation events. Basic science.

[RachelAnna]

Agreed! Personally, for me, the ability to watch in real time, and learn here from pros and non pros alike, helps to reduce anxiety I would have had otherwise, as well. Having all of this access and information at our fingertips is awesome and is great in situations like this where we don't really know what this storm is doing.

[wxman57]

Recon in the air.
Going to be a short trip.

I can't imagine that recon into a region rich with surface obs is going to tell us much. Any G-IV scheduled?

[xironman]

Recon in the air.
Going to be a short trip.

I can't imagine that recon into a region rich with surface obs is going to tell us much. Any G-IV scheduled?

I thought the way they can measure the full column of the atmosphere would provide better data for the models to work with as opposed to just surface obs.

[wxman57]

Recon in the air.
Going to be a short trip.

I can't imagine that recon into a region rich with surface obs is going to tell us much. Any G-IV scheduled?

I thought the way they can measure the full column of the atmosphere would provide better data for the models to work with as opposed to just surface obs.

A low-level invest flies at about 500m (1500 ft).

[Aric Dunn]

Recon in the air.
Going to be a short trip.

I can't imagine that recon into a region rich with surface obs is going to tell us much. Any G-IV scheduled?

I thought the way they can measure the full column of the atmosphere would provide better data for the models to work with as opposed to just surface obs.

They are not going into an area with a lot of obs. Farther north yes. South where the center is no. Recon will check everything as needed.

[tropicwatch]

I can't imagine that recon into a region rich with surface obs is going to tell us much. Any G-IV scheduled?

I thought the way they can measure the full column of the atmosphere would provide better data for the models to work with as opposed to just surface obs.

They are not going into an area with a lot of obs. Farther north yes. South where the center is no. Recon will check everything as needed.

Good timing too, starting to see some pressure drops.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon in the air.
Going to be a short trip.

I can't imagine that recon into a region rich with surface obs is going to tell us much. Any G-IV scheduled?

The P3 is flying this afternoon/evening and will be collecting TDR obs.

[xironman]

I can't imagine that recon into a region rich with surface obs is going to tell us much. Any G-IV scheduled?

I thought the way they can measure the full column of the atmosphere would provide better data for the models to work with as opposed to just surface obs.

They are not going into an area with a lot of obs. Farther north yes. South where the center is no. Recon will check everything as needed.

Agreed, my point is that they put dropsondes in a variety of places around the storm giving information as to the environment it is in.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Agreed! Personally, for me, the ability to watch in real time, and learn here from pros and non pros alike, helps to reduce anxiety I would have had otherwise, as well. Having all of this access and information at our fingertips is awesome and is great in situations like this where we don't really know what this storm is doing.

Way off topic..

But I remember a time being a small kid in Sarasota Florida and we really did not have much of a heads up on when these were coming, where they were going. The weather channel and cable TV wasn't around then and generally you had to wait for the newspaper the next day to get an update..IF they deemed it was important enough. All you generally knew is a storm was forming, and you literally had to keep an eye on the Barometric pressure gauge

Now newspapers have disappeared and we get info every second from the NOAA

[jlauderdal]

Agreed! Personally, for me, the ability to watch in real time, and learn here from pros and non pros alike, helps to reduce anxiety I would have had otherwise, as well. Having all of this access and information at our fingertips is awesome and is great in situations like this where we don't really know what this storm is doing.

Way off topic..

But I remember a time being a small kid in Sarasota Florida and we really did not have much of a heads up on when these were coming, where they were going. The weather channel and cable TV wasn't around then and generally you had to wait for the newspaper the next day to get an update..IF they deemed it was important enough. All you generally knew is a storm was forming, and you literally had to keep an eye on the Barometric pressure gauge

Now newspapers have disappeared and we get info every second from the NOAA

and we still dont know where its going or how strong it will be

[StormPyrate]

Agreed! Personally, for me, the ability to watch in real time, and learn here from pros and non pros alike, helps to reduce anxiety I would have had otherwise, as well. Having all of this access and information at our fingertips is awesome and is great in situations like this where we don't really know what this storm is doing.

Way off topic..

But I remember a time being a small kid in Sarasota Florida and we really did not have much of a heads up on when these were coming, where they were going. The weather channel and cable TV wasn't around then and generally you had to wait for the newspaper the next day to get an update..IF they deemed it was important enough. All you generally knew is a storm was forming, and you literally had to keep an eye on the Barometric pressure gauge

Now newspapers have disappeared and we get info every second from the NOAA

and we still dont know where its going or how strong it will be

But you know more about all that than you would have 19 years ago

[NDG]

Still fairly broad & elongated at the surface with several vorticities rotating around. The mid level circulation is better defined.

[Aric Dunn]

And recon find the developing actual center exactly where it shows up on sat and radar..

Definitely some smaller vorts in there rotating around

[LAwxrgal]

Way off topic..

But I remember a time being a small kid in Sarasota Florida and we really did not have much of a heads up on when these were coming, where they were going. The weather channel and cable TV wasn't around then and generally you had to wait for the newspaper the next day to get an update..IF they deemed it was important enough. All you generally knew is a storm was forming, and you literally had to keep an eye on the Barometric pressure gauge

Now newspapers have disappeared and we get info every second from the NOAA

and we still dont know where its going or how strong it will be

But you know more about all that than you would have 19 years ago

And considering how hot and dry it's been in Southeast Louisiana for most of July (several days of about 100 degrees for highs), very few people would have seen this coming. And indeed, few people outside of these boards still see it coming. The local media is starting to catch up though, this morning's floods in New Orleans were a big wake-up call.