ATL: BARRY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#641 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:01 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
sphelps8681
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 785
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#642 Postby sphelps8681 » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:02 pm

NDG wrote:At 24 hrs the 12z Euro is a little to the N & E of last night's forecasted position for the same time.


And lower pressure.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#643 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:04 pm

At 48 hrs on Friday morning is around 40 miles east of the same forecasted position on last night's Euro run.
Very similar to the 06z Rapid Euro run so far.
0 likes   
Top
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1731
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:
Contact OuterBanker

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#644 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:05 pm

Did everyone notice the double whammy on the Gulf coast on the 29th on the long range GFS?
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#645 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:07 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#646 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:09 pm

Looks well east of the 0Z.
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#647 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:09 pm

Also, at 48 hrs, the Euro is a good 75 miles east where the CMC has it and a good 100 miles ENE of where the UKMET has it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#648 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:09 pm

tolakram wrote:Looks well east of the 0Z.


Almost a spit image of its earlier 06z Rapid run.
1 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#649 Postby Frank P » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:10 pm

both the 12z Euro and ICON at 72 H look almost identical in position and strength... the ICON has been hitting this same general area for numerous consecutive runs
Last edited by Frank P on Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#650 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:12 pm

I call this pretty good consistency by the Euro for a general area of where it will make landfall.

Image
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#651 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:15 pm

Euro has it moving fast north between 72 and 96 hours.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#652 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:22 pm

12z Euro goes directly over Lafayette :double:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#653 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:22 pm

Trend has been bad today for SE Louisiana and Mississippi. Euro, HMON, HWRF, GFS are all pretty tight on SE Louisiana landfall. Still changes to come, I'm sure.
0 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145309
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#654 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:28 pm

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1149020611508867073


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#655 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:41 pm

Look at how close these two are in both track and intensity. Euro on top, GFS on bottom.

2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
davidiowx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 390
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:07 am
Location: Richmond, TX

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#656 Postby davidiowx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:43 pm

SoupBone wrote:Look at how close these two are in both track and intensity.

https://imgur.com/oBoGDAs


It is definitely showing consistency but the problem is, we don't even know if the center of the storm is where the model initialized. Once the center is established, and the HH data is incorporated into the models, let's see what the models start showing.
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#657 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:07 pm

12z Canadian Ensembles are in 2 main groups of tracks, with about half of the members in each one. One track is northwest towards southeast TX. The other is north towards south central Lousiana.

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#658 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:13 pm

The GEFS is in pretty good agreement with a central La landfall right now. It has the heaviest core of rain over NOLA right now.
1 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#659 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:14 pm

TheProfessor wrote:The GEFS is in pretty good agreement with a central La landfall right now. It has the heaviest core of rain over NOLA right now.



It feels like deja vu from yesterday at this time. Then last night's Euro happened. :lol:
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
TheProfessor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3506
Age: 28
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
Location: Wichita, Kansas

Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#660 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:15 pm

SoupBone wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:The GEFS is in pretty good agreement with a central La landfall right now. It has the heaviest core of rain over NOLA right now.



It feels like deja vu from yesterday at this time. Then last night's Euro happened. :lol:


Yep, we really need to get a storm formed first before we really know where it's going.
2 likes   
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.

Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests