ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Going further down in latitude.

https://i.imgur.com/KOASPWC.png

Notice the wind shift pretty close to where we all believe the center is consolidating.

[ColdMiser123]

They are likely seeing something. Where they are has the largest potential energy could be some better low level convergence dow there.. we shall see.

Looks like there are at least two wind shifts in the low levels so far, which isn't too uncommon for a disorganized system like this. They are probably determining which one, if any is more dominant.

[cycloneye]

Going now north.

[msbee]

From Crown Weather this afternoon:

Crown Weather Plus Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday Afternoon, July 10, 2019

Some Thoughts About The Potential For Major Catastrophic Flooding In New Orleans This Weekend

I am EXTREMELY CONCERNED about the potential for flooding in New Orleans this weekend due to the combination of record river heights, heavy rainfall of up to 6 to 12 inches of accumulation, strong onshore winds and a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.
The Mississippi River at New Orleans is already at 16 feet and is expected to reach 20 feet by Saturday morning. The levees can handle a surge of up to 20 feet before they fail. This forecast is not an exact science and does not include all of the rainfall that is expected in the coming days. In addition, it does not include the waves that will likely top 20 feet.

This all spells a potential major catastrophic flood disaster for New Orleans. In addition, other levees along the Mississippi River are likely to fail in the coming days and especially this weekend.

Bottom Line Is That New Orleans and cities and towns along the Mississippi River need to be preparing NOW for what could be the worst flooding since 1927. This looks about as bad as it can be in terms of flood threat.

Finally, the flooding that occurred today in New Orleans is just a prelude to what is likely coming in terms of flooding. The true flood conditions will not arrive until Friday night and Saturday. So, it is time now to think about evacuations.

[SoupBone]

From Crown Weather this afternoon:

Crown Weather Plus Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday Afternoon, July 10, 2019

Some Thoughts About The Potential For Major Catastrophic Flooding In New Orleans This Weekend

I am EXTREMELY CONCERNED about the potential for flooding in New Orleans this weekend due to the combination of record river heights, heavy rainfall of up to 6 to 12 inches of accumulation, strong onshore winds and a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.
The Mississippi River at New Orleans is already at 16 feet and is expected to reach 20 feet by Saturday morning. The levees can handle a surge of up to 20 feet before they fail. This forecast is not an exact science and does not include all of the rainfall that is expected in the coming days. In addition, it does not include the waves that will likely top 20 feet.

This all spells a potential major catastrophic flood disaster for New Orleans. In addition, other levees along the Mississippi River are likely to fail in the coming days and especially this weekend.

Bottom Line Is That New Orleans and cities and towns along the Mississippi River need to be preparing NOW for what could be the worst flooding since 1927. This looks about as bad as it can be in terms of flood threat.

Finally, the flooding that occurred today in New Orleans is just a prelude to what is likely coming in terms of flooding. The true flood conditions will not arrive until Friday night and Saturday. So, it is time now to think about evacuations.

That's a pretty ominous warning from Rob.

[GCANE]

Flying thru a tower now
Impressive rain rate at 26 mm/hr

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1149032156162940929

[Aric Dunn]

A whole lot of north winds right there. Something larger is to the ese.. which appears to be the center of gyre of meso vorts. It wont take much more convection.

[GCANE]

Flying thru a tower now
Impressive rain rate at 26 mm/hr

Looking at VIS sat, the tower maybe refiring.
They maybe onto to something here.

[GCANE]

LOL
That's why we have recon

[GCANE]

In the clear SFMR 30 knots

[Aric Dunn]

LOL
That's why we have recon

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1114/E9xLSX.png

Yeah insaw that. Lol

[Aric Dunn]

So we have 3 distinct meso vorts. 1 to the north and 2 to the south.

[sphelps8681]

LOL
That's why we have recon

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1114/E9xLSX.png

Yeah insaw that. Lol

I does this potential center compare to what the models are using?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

LOL
That's why we have recon

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1114/E9xLSX.png

Yeah insaw that. Lol

I does this potential center compare to what the models are using?

About 50 miles south of the models

[Steve]

City got swamped this morning from feeder moisture. LMAO if we get more than the few inches we did. None of our 3 vehicles actually flooded out, though water was up to the car door on the Nissan, my truck had water up near the top of the tires and frame, and my middle kid's Honda got stranded on a neutral ground for 2.5 hours. I drove back to Mid-City around lunch, and several streets were still impassable with numerous stranded and swamped cars everywhere. At least some people got water in their homes, and lots of businesses did as well. And it might be only preseason with Barry. Even my daughter who was uptown had to move her car to a high parking lot. She said she walked back to her bf's apartment in thigh-high water. Best to everyone in and around the city, and hopefully we at least get mostly a break through the night if not overall.

[CrazyC83]

It's now a question of which center becomes dominant. If the northern center takes hold, it will probably spend much of its time near or over land (but...still a TON of rain!!!). The southern center might keep New Orleans out of the heavy rain the rest of the way, but it would allow for much more time over warm water and that is likely the thinking of the more aggressive (but realistic - the NAM is on crack) models.

[StormLogic]

i got money on the southern vort taking over

[NDG]

I still don't see any signs of a defined LLC by looking at the recon, satellite and surface reports, everything rotating around the low level vorticity.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Not at the surface yet. (imo)

Will see what recon says