ATL: BARRY - Models

[NDG]

I guess the reason why the 18z early models have not come out yet is because they are waiting to see if Recon finds a defined surface circulation center.
Still looks pretty broad.

[NDG]

The GEFS is in pretty good agreement with a central La landfall right now. It has the heaviest core of rain over NOLA right now.

It feels like deja vu from yesterday at this time. Then last night's Euro happened.

It actually started with the 18z Rapid Euro run.

[mcheer23]

GEPS went west

[MississippiWx]

The models have a pretty strong area of 850mb vorticity to latch onto now. While this is not technically the surface, this is what they will use to base their forecasts.

[NDG]

GEPS went west

It is no surprise with its operational run going west. I would not follow that model unless you paid me

[NDG]

18z early models, the official NHC is well west of their reliable TVCN which is over the Houma area.
The UKMET is all alone with the climatology model.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

18z early models, the official NHC is well west of their reliable TVCN which is over the Houma area.
The UKMET is all alone with the climatology model.

https://i.imgur.com/OCkOmnU.gif

I’m not buying an east of Lafayette solution. I don’t think the storm materializes all that fast and will still be a TX/LA border storm.

[stormlover2013]

We should know pretty good in morning, all depends where center forms

[NDG]

18z early models, the official NHC is well west of their reliable TVCN which is over the Houma area.
The UKMET is all alone with the climatology model.

https://i.imgur.com/OCkOmnU.gif

I’m not buying an east of Lafayette solution. I don’t think the storm materializes all that fast and will still be a TX/LA border storm.

Chances are fairly now of that happening with now at least 90% of Euro ensembles showing a landfall east of the TX/LA border.

[davidiowx]

18z early models, the official NHC is well west of their reliable TVCN which is over the Houma area.
The UKMET is all alone with the climatology model.

https://i.imgur.com/OCkOmnU.gif

I’m not buying an east of Lafayette solution. I don’t think the storm materializes all that fast and will still be a TX/LA border storm.

Chances are fairly now of that happening with now at least 90% of Euro ensembles showing a landfall east of the TX/LA border.

https://i.imgur.com/97ezEza.png

I still think we need a defined center before we start really believing all of the model runs up until this point. There is certainly a lot more consistency today, but depending on where the actual center forms, that could swing West, stay the same or swing East.

[tarheelprogrammer]

New 12km and 32km NAM model runs are going straight into LA from where it currently it. If that happens it will cut down on the chances for significant development. Rain is still a big issue though.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro ensembles are tightly clustered around Vermilion bay and the "Acadiana" region of south central Louisiana, much like the operational run.

[MissKandi]

Yuck, I live not far from Lafayette.

[NDG]

New 12km and 32km NAM model runs are going straight into LA from where it currently it. If that happens it will cut down on the chances for significant development. Rain is still a big issue though.

It makes a point for many of us that do not follow the NAM model for tropical systems with its inconsistency.

[Nederlander]

18z early models, the official NHC is well west of their reliable TVCN which is over the Houma area.
The UKMET is all alone with the climatology model.

https://i.imgur.com/OCkOmnU.gif

I’m not buying an east of Lafayette solution. I don’t think the storm materializes all that fast and will still be a TX/LA border storm.

Chances are fairly now of that happening with now at least 90% of Euro ensembles showing a landfall east of the TX/LA border.

https://i.imgur.com/97ezEza.png

They’ve been windshield wiping the last couple of days. The 0z run this morning were all mostly west of the TX/LA border. As others have said, we need a center to form first before fully trusting either solution.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1149051781495832576

[NDG]

I’m not buying an east of Lafayette solution. I don’t think the storm materializes all that fast and will still be a TX/LA border storm.

Chances are fairly now of that happening with now at least 90% of Euro ensembles showing a landfall east of the TX/LA border.

https://i.imgur.com/97ezEza.png

They’ve been windshield wiping the last couple of days. The 0z run this morning were all mostly west of the TX/LA border. As others have said, we need a center to form first before fully trusting either solution.

I have seen this all the time. This is a large scale system and global models usually do a very good job with this well before an LLC forms when there is already a well defined H85 & H50 circulation in place already.
With less than 72 hours before landfall it will be another Katrina for models to switch back to SE TX, since then models have come a long way.

[Wx_Warrior]

4p NHC update

[MidnightRain]

Might start trending a little more east and weaker if Barry is a larger system, which is my impression of it viewing the satellite. Yesterday the consensus was a small storm and therefore missing the weakness in the ridge.

[Steve]

NAM 12km @ 18z moves the circulation up toward the LA Coast and then runs the coast on down to about Bay City/Lake Jackson

3km is still off the LA Coast and hasn't finished it's run to 60 hours yet to see if it will also hook off west or come inland. Jumped to 60h and is still offshore of the SC LA Coast at 883mb. Lol