GFS predicts a reverse-oriented monsoon trough forming next week
2019 WPAC Season
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JoshwaDone
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
ECMWF is picking up something
GFS predicts a reverse-oriented monsoon trough forming next week
GFS predicts a reverse-oriented monsoon trough forming next week
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Been following it since last week but I'm being pessimistic, WPAC might get activity but that activity could be another 94-96W type OR finally a decent storm. Until a decent storm finally forms, the back to back debacles of the intensity forecast by the top weather models and HWRF makes it hard to rely on potential storms.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Based on their recent performance, the GFS is my least trusted. Although I really wouldn't rely on anything until there are clear signs that something significant is shaping up...which is, of course, disappointing because that defeats the purpose of running model simulations.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
06Z GFS agrees with the EURO one and makes it stronger between a pair of cyclones.
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euro6208
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
EURO and GFS continues to pain an active period coming up. Both has multiple systems...
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ManilaTC
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
12z models now hinting of a couple of stronger systems by early next week.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
An active CCKW moving across the Pacific ocean I think will give the WPAC a great shot to get going.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:An active CCKW moving across the Pacific ocean I think will give the WPAC a great shot to get going.
Weird that a rogue cckw may spawn more activity than the previous MJO signal 2weeks ago.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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mrbagyo
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Tadaaaa.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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Kingarabian
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
dexterlabio wrote:Kingarabian wrote:An active CCKW moving across the Pacific ocean I think will give the WPAC a great shot to get going.
Weird that a rogue cckw may spawn more activity than the previous MJO signal 2weeks ago.
An equatorial rossby wave did a number on the MJO pulse while it was in the WPAC and broke it apart.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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euro6208
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
Elsewhere, the precipitation forecasts are based largely on the ECMWF guidance. Enhanced rainfall remains likely associated with the Meiyu front over parts of southern and eastern Asia. There is also the possibility of tropical cyclone development northeast of the Philippines during Week-2. The GEFS forecasts this TC to ride the baroclinic zone northeast during Week-2 over the northwest Pacific.
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euro6208
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
There is also good agreement between the GEFS and ECWMF ensemble systems on the potential for tropical cyclone formation east of the Philippines early next week, lingering into Week-2, when a second disturbance has a chance to develop. Forecast wind shear anomalies appear broadly favorable through the forecast period.
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1900hurricane
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
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Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
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euro6208
Re: 2019 WPAC Season
GFS has been very aggressive on the next TC for some runs now to develop around the vicinity of Guam in 120 hours. Looks like it may follow the track of another potent system that is 98W.
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JoshwaDone
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1147849695005310977
1998 was some weird year for the Philippines
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