ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

That is very ominous indeed. This will undoubtedly get named tonight or early Thursday

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a depression in my opinion.
-closed surface wind field
-36 and 40 knot smrf
-convection
-+20 knot flight level westerly winds on the southern side.

[plasticup]

The fist has begun.

https://i.imgur.com/yR90Fpj.gif

Looks closed to me. Time for blast off.

[wxman57]

I'd say it's finally developing a better-defined LLC this evening. May be a TD on the next advisory and a TS in the morning. 12Z EC ensembles shifted well east of 00Z run. Centered on Vermilion Bay. NHC may be adjusting their traci slowly eastward tonight.

[stormhunter7]

checkout dropsonde 16. Must of been some outflow, or an old meso low at surface.

[SoupBone]

I'd say it's finally developing a better-defined LLC this evening. May be a TD on the next advisory and a TS in the morning. 12Z EC ensembles shifted well east of 00Z run. Centered on Vermilion Bay. NHC may be adjusting their traci slowly eastward tonight.

http://wxman57.com/images/92Li.JPG

I hate to keep bugging you, but you don't believe the UKMET tweet from above regarding the other models not getting that ridge correctly?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah, just saw the IR loop. That tower could be what gets this thing going.

[GCANE]

That hot tower is layering the cirrus higher and higher.
No doubt intensification underway.

[sphelps8681]

I'd say it's finally developing a better-defined LLC this evening. May be a TD on the next advisory and a TS in the morning. 12Z EC ensembles shifted well east of 00Z run. Centered on Vermilion Bay. NHC may be adjusting their traci slowly eastward tonight.

http://wxman57.com/images/92Li.JPG

I hate to keep bugging you, but you don't believe the UKMET tweet from above regarding the other models not getting that ridge correctly?

I want to know too. Either it had an impact or not. Then we can get on with the other things.

[SoupBone]

I'd say it's finally developing a better-defined LLC this evening. May be a TD on the next advisory and a TS in the morning. 12Z EC ensembles shifted well east of 00Z run. Centered on Vermilion Bay. NHC may be adjusting their traci slowly eastward tonight.

http://wxman57.com/images/92Li.JPG

I hate to keep bugging you, but you don't believe the UKMET tweet from above regarding the other models not getting that ridge correctly?

I want to know too. Either it had an impact or not. Then we can get on with the other things.

The only person I saw addressing it was NDG, and it didn't sound good. You'd think this was accounted for in official forecasts, but maybe it was missed.

[GCANE]

Rapid Scan on Slider
Sector: Mesoscale 2

[Puddinhead]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u_P_j8UG2-c

Joe B still doing some Euro chasing here but worried about pulling track east and implications.

Hopefully, that scenario does not play out. NOLA will struggle to handle it if it does. The MS River was not high in Aug. 2016, but, it is now, and where would all the rain go. Concerned for them.

The concern is really appreciated, but we've always drained rainfall to the lake rather than to the river. Highest ground is at river and original system was simple gravity driven canals. We still use those canals, but since Katrina with gates at the lake to block surge and pumps to lift rainwater over the closed gates during a surge event. This would be the first actual "live fire" test since the pumps and gates are both operational.

[Aric Dunn]

tooo bad there was no radar data from Kermit

[sphelps8681]

I hate to keep bugging you, but you don't believe the UKMET tweet from above regarding the other models not getting that ridge correctly?

I want to know too. Either it had an impact or not. Then we can get on with the other things.

The only person I saw addressing it was NDG, and it didn't sound good. You'd think this was accounted for in official forecasts, but maybe it was missed.

The weather channel is also being vague. I understand we don't know until a coc is formed so not understanding why the models are so correct now to some when there is still no COC. Texas is still in the cone so we are trying to determine if what was posted was accurate or not. NOLA does not need this and I and others are not trying to down play what could actually be something they will have to deal with it. And of course no one may truly no the answer which is fine. Just helps when there is a little feed back.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1149108994994311168

[GCANE]

Kermit's headed into the remnants of the hot tower.
A new one is firing just to the south of it.

[Aric Dunn]

starting to get curved bands develop on radar.. very likely we have a TD/TS. next 24 hrs are going to be interesting.. how far will it dive sw is the question??...

[Aric Dunn]

Kermit's headed into the remnants of the hot tower.
A new one is firing just to the south of it.

I was hoping they would do a center pass!

[GCANE]

Kermit's headed into the remnants of the hot tower.
A new one is firing just to the south of it.

I was hoping they would do a center pass!

They are flying high.
I hope they have their barf bags next to them.

[Nederlander]

I want to know too. Either it had an impact or not. Then we can get on with the other things.

The only person I saw addressing it was NDG, and it didn't sound good. You'd think this was accounted for in official forecasts, but maybe it was missed.

The weather channel is also being vague. I understand we don't know until a coc is formed so not understanding why the models are so correct now to some when there is still no COC. Texas is still in the cone so we are trying to determine if what was posted was accurate or not. NOLA does not need this and I and others are not trying to down play what could actually be something they will have to deal with it. And of course no one may truly no the answer which is fine. Just helps when there is a little feed back.

I say wait and see what the NHC track does tonight as well as the 0z model runs as they should have more dropsonde data and a fixed center to initialize properly. I’m in Port Arthur myself so I’m just in wait and see mode until the morning. Model guidance today has been mostly all east of the border so we’ll see if that holds.