ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Pretty much right on the bullseye.
They are getting there right on time.
That should nail it.

[gatorcane]

We may look back and think how things would have been so much worse if it had just 24 hours more over water. It’s a good thing since the environment is near ideal, probably the difference between a high-end TS / low-end hurricane and a major making landfall.

[stormhunter7]

Recon going down in alt. Must of gotten mission update or change?

[SunnyThoughts]

Plane made it safely from Houston to home here in Pensacola. Rainfall estimates look ominous for parts of the gulfcoast. Stay safe New Orleans and surrounding areas.
r

[GCANE]

Picking up 30 knot surface winds.

[cycloneye]

Breaking News: Pressure beginning to fall: Data from NOAA plane Kermit:

Aircraft Position: 27.45°N 87.68°W
Bearing: 63° at 245 kt
Altitude: 4838 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 9 kt at 291°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1006.6 mb

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon going down in alt. Must of gotten mission update or change?

Going in for a surface fix.

[MississippiWx]

Breaking News: Pressure beginning to fall: Data from NOAA plane Kermit:

Aircraft Position: 27.45°N 87.68°W
Bearing: 63° at 245 kt
Altitude: 4838 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 9 kt at 291°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1006.6 mb

Yeah, they are making a center pass now. Glad they took the time to do that as it looks like we have a tropical cyclone.

[SoupBone]

The only person I saw addressing it was NDG, and it didn't sound good. You'd think this was accounted for in official forecasts, but maybe it was missed.

The weather channel is also being vague. I understand we don't know until a coc is formed so not understanding why the models are so correct now to some when there is still no COC. Texas is still in the cone so we are trying to determine if what was posted was accurate or not. NOLA does not need this and I and others are not trying to down play what could actually be something they will have to deal with it. And of course no one may truly no the answer which is fine. Just helps when there is a little feed back.

I say wait and see what the NHC track does tonight as well as the 0z model runs as they should have more dropsonde data and a fixed center to initialize properly. I’m in Port Arthur myself so I’m just in wait and see mode until the morning. Model guidance today has been mostly all east of the border so we’ll see if that holds.

I think we're all in this same situation, but I just find it odd that if what was tweeted is true, the UKMET could verify and then we have extremely limited time for our area. Yeah, people should already be preparing, but you know that isn't the case across the Greater Houston Area. It's even odder that a board like this with many people that are pretty regular posters, wobble watchers, etc. are silent.

[gatorcane]

Sometimes the UKMET has an extreme west-biased. Not sure why but it is an outlier now. Consensus is well east.

[psyclone]

The potential duck is most certainly quacking now. Rather impressive organization heading into dmax.

[jasons2k]

I’m in Texas and it’s wait and see. I have my supplies and the vehicles are full of gas. That’s about all I can do for now. No need to panic at the moment but I’m keeping a close watch. Anything can happen.

[storm4u]

Developing quick now.. could be a strong tropical storm by morning in my opinion..

[cycloneye]

Plane passed the developing center.

[sphelps8681]

The weather channel is also being vague. I understand we don't know until a coc is formed so not understanding why the models are so correct now to some when there is still no COC. Texas is still in the cone so we are trying to determine if what was posted was accurate or not. NOLA does not need this and I and others are not trying to down play what could actually be something they will have to deal with it. And of course no one may truly no the answer which is fine. Just helps when there is a little feed back.

I say wait and see what the NHC track does tonight as well as the 0z model runs as they should have more dropsonde data and a fixed center to initialize properly. I’m in Port Arthur myself so I’m just in wait and see mode until the morning. Model guidance today has been mostly all east of the border so we’ll see if that holds.

I think we're all in this same situation, but I just find it odd that if what was tweeted is true, the UKMET could verify and then we have extremely limited time for our area. Yeah, people should already be preparing, but you know that isn't the case across the Greater Houston Area. It's even odder that a board like this with many people that are pretty regular posters, wobble watchers, etc. are silent.

I know it is kinda of strange. Hopefully we will no more when the data if any was taken when the planes went in. Do you know if anymore planes are going tomorrow? I don't think the UKMET has budged much if any. Have not checked lately. Besides I saw the CMC is more west. But you know the CMC. But you never know.

[stormhunter7]

dwpt and temp at fl150 around 0c plus of minus a few degrees it look like near center.

[GCANE]

This is looking ominous to say the least.
A poleward outflow channel is developing.
This is in conjunction with the entrenched equatorward outflow channel.
I am thinkg a Cat 1 or 2 is probable now.

[Aric Dunn]

I see the center is farther south. looks like it might get pulled even more with all the convection on the south side... expect some west shifts.

[northjaxpro]

Developing quick now.. could be a strong tropical storm by morning in my opinion..

Yes, I agree. It is well underway now in organizing.

[GCANE]

Going to get a big dose of moisture tonight from the infeed of all the convective debris that fired along the coast this afternoon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid