ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

We may look back and think how things would have been so much worse if it had just 24 hours more over water. It’s a good thing since the environment is near ideal, probably the difference between a high-end TS / low-end hurricane and a major making landfall.

It still has 48 hours over the GOM, right?

[GCANE]

On IR, it looks like it may be trying to band to the SE

[Kingarabian]

While there's a huge risk of large scale flooding in regards to this system regardless of intensity, at the rate it's going, we should hope that @ landfall the models have the intensity correct because so far it looks like it's organizing more than forecast.

[BYG Jacob]

Has that classic comma look

[GCANE]

That high CAPE air from the coast is entraining into it now.

[cycloneye]

SAB up to 1.5.

TXNT25 KNES 110017
TCSNTL

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 11/0001Z

C. 27.5N

D. 87.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[tropicwatch]

SAB up to 1.5.

TXNT25 KNES 110017
TCSNTL

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 11/0001Z

C. 27.5N

D. 87.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

Cyclone could you give us the English version of that report

[tropicwatch]

SAB up to 1.5.

TXNT25 KNES 110017
TCSNTL

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 11/0001Z

C. 27.5N

D. 87.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

Cycloneye could you give us the English version of that report

[Hurricane Andrew]

As someone said, probably a good thing this only has 48 hours over the Gulf rather than 72. Regardless, strong TS to strong C1 is probable, with rain and surge as the main threats. I'll have a larger writeup sometime tomorrow.

[Ian2401]

upgrade at 11:00pm? recent recon passes certainly support it imo

[Aric Dunn]

SAB up to 1.5.

TXNT25 KNES 110017
TCSNTL

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 11/0001Z

C. 27.5N

D. 87.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

Cyclone could you give us the English version of that report

The log scale, in this case, is based on a logarithmic spiral (similar to the Fibonacci sequence) ... essentially the closer it fits to this scale the better the T-numbers ... of course other criteria play a role in the T-numbers.

[Aric Dunn]

As someone said, probably a good thing this only has 48 hours over the Gulf rather than 72. Regardless, strong TS to strong C1 is probable, with rain and surge as the main threats. I'll have a larger writeup sometime tomorrow.

major hurricane is not out of the question...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

As someone said, probably a good thing this only has 48 hours over the Gulf rather than 72. Regardless, strong TS to strong C1 is probable, with rain and surge as the main threats. I'll have a larger writeup sometime tomorrow.

Definitely has more than 48 hours over the Gulf, more like 60 at the very minimum.

[dexterlabio]

We have seen TDs ramping up to cane status in just 24hrs, so a 48-hr stay over water has a lot of potential IMO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We have seen TDs ramping up to cane status in just 24hrs, so a 48-hr stay over water has a lot of potential IMO.

We've seen them do it in a little more than 12 hours. But neither the NHC forecast or any of the reliable models that I can find show 02L coming ashore in 48 hours. HWRF has landfall by 60 hours. GFS by 72 hours.

[GCANE]

Really nice venting along the whole east side.
All due to the equatorward outflow channel.
Once the poleward outflow channel tugs on it, it'll be balls to the wall.

[tropicwatch]

The log scale, in this case, is based on a logarithmic spiral (similar to the Fibonacci sequence) ... essentially the closer it fits to this scale the better the T-numbers ... of course other criteria play a role in the T-numbers.

Never did like snails

[dexterlabio]

We've seen them do it in a little more than 12 hours. But neither the NHC forecast or any of the reliable models that I can find show 02L coming ashore in 48 hours. HWRF has landfall by 60 hours. GFS by 72 hours.

In that case, more reason to NOT be surprised to see a major hurricane by the doorstep. And by the looks of it, it's now ready to form its thick CDO...

[storm4u]

We have seen TDs ramping up to cane status in just 24hrs, so a 48-hr stay over water has a lot of potential IMO.

Not saying this will do it.. but didn't Katrina go from cat 1 to cat 5 in 18 hours or so?

[ColdMiser123]

SAB up to 1.5.

TXNT25 KNES 110017
TCSNTL

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 11/0001Z

C. 27.5N

D. 87.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

Those coordinates agree pretty well with what recon just found in the last pass.