ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

We have seen TDs ramping up to cane status in just 24hrs, so a 48-hr stay over water has a lot of potential IMO.

Not saying this will do it.. but didn't Katrina go from cat 1 to cat 5 in 18 hours or so?

yeah and so did Wilma and many others.

[dexterlabio]

Not saying this will do it.. but didn't Katrina go from cat 1 to cat 5 in 18 hours or so?

I think so? But honestly all I can think of when it comes to dramatic deepening in 24hrs is Wilma lol.

[Nederlander]

We have seen TDs ramping up to cane status in just 24hrs, so a 48-hr stay over water has a lot of potential IMO.

Not saying this will do it.. but didn't Katrina go from cat 1 to cat 5 in 18 hours or so?

No I think it was more like 48-60 hours

[johngaltfla]

As someone said, probably a good thing this only has 48 hours over the Gulf rather than 72. Regardless, strong TS to strong C1 is probable, with rain and surge as the main threats. I'll have a larger writeup sometime tomorrow.

major hurricane is not out of the question...

Aric is spot on. Any jogs to the WSW or SW for even a 12 hour period makes a huge difference on recurve and landfall. Intensity forecasting for GOM storms is a gamble in many cases with RI a very dangerous possibility.

[cycloneye]

New video from Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1149115662905872385

[HurricaneBrain]

Center is positioned ~25 miles more south since 8PM update. No east/west change.

SAB up to 1.5.

TXNT25 KNES 110017
TCSNTL

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 11/0001Z

C. 27.5N

D. 87.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[Aric Dunn]

Both MAria and Wilma went from 35 mph to Cat 5 in 48 hours.. so yeah..

[tolakram]

200 frame loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-ntmicro-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[johngaltfla]

Both MAria and Wilma went from 35 mph to Cat 5 in 48 hours.. so yeah..

Charlie from a 2 to a 4 in 3 hours. I was just north of landfall and yeah, one more hour over the Gulf and it would have been a major disaster from Sarasota to Tampa Bay.

[johngaltfla]

200 frame loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-ntmicro-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Impressive loop, especially the WV. Barry is getting his act together.

[Rebelstorm]

As someone said, probably a good thing this only has 48 hours over the Gulf rather than 72. Regardless, strong TS to strong C1 is probable, with rain and surge as the main threats. I'll have a larger writeup sometime tomorrow.

major hurricane is not out of the question...

Aric, Please stop giving us good news here in Baton Rouge

[PTrackerLA]

Got all my supplies today and will have a generator tomorrow. Costco at 11:30am on a Wednesday resembled a Saturday but I was happy to see everyone taking it seriously. Pumps were all jam packed at every station I passed this afternoon so I'm sure gas shortages will come soon. The local mets are doing a great job getting the message out given the short time table. We all know this spreads like wildfire on social media these days but I'm confident my area will be prepared for a potential direct impact. We haven't had hurricane force gusts since Gustav in 2008 so I expect widespread power outages, but the flooding is most concerning. Hopefully the Atchafalaya basin takes the brunt of the excessive precip but it's quite concerning faced with the possibility of south winds for a good part of the storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not sure why a few folks think this has only 48 hours over the gulf, if you look at weather.com it showed it still over water early Sat Afternoon. Now if it goes more east, then yes, maybe only 48 hours over water

[TheStormExpert]

The Gulf of Mexico is notorious for spinning up majors at a rapid pace! Take Harvey and Michael from the previous two seasons for example, weren’t ACE producers but packed a HUGE punch at landfall. Those sounding the all clear in terms of a significant hurricane threat may want to think twice.

[hurricaneCW]

This isn't going to rapidly intensify. As Levi said in his video there's too much dry air/northerly shear around and it still has a long way to go before it becomes a TS.

[BYG Jacob]

We have seen TDs ramping up to cane status in just 24hrs, so a 48-hr stay over water has a lot of potential IMO.

Not saying this will do it.. but didn't Katrina go from cat 1 to cat 5 in 18 hours or so?

Don’t even have to go that far back, in like 2 days Harvey went from invest to cat 4, Michael went nuts last year too.

[BYG Jacob]

This isn't going to rapidly intensify. As Levi said in his video there's too much dry air/northerly shear around and it still has a long way to go before it becomes a TS.

This is pure -removed-

[Nederlander]

This isn't going to rapidly intensify. As Levi said in his video there's too much dry air/northerly shear around and it still has a long way to go before it becomes a TS.

RI criteria is an increase of 35mph sustained winds in 24 hours. Very possible before landfall with 90F+ waters

[SouthDadeFish]

This isn't going to rapidly intensify. As Levi said in his video there's too much dry air/northerly shear around and it still has a long way to go before it becomes a TS.

That's not what he said. He said that is just one possibility. Another possibility is the TC is able to create a locally-favorable environment of lower vertical wind shear via heating from convection that will facilitate larger intensification rates.

[hurricaneCW]

This isn't going to rapidly intensify. As Levi said in his video there's too much dry air/northerly shear around and it still has a long way to go before it becomes a TS.

This is pure -removed-

And those mentioning it could pull a Charley or Michael aren't?

Regardless he's correct about the flood threat, that will be the story due to already high river levels.