ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

It looks very rough right now with the best RH values it’s going to see. Tomorrow mid level dry air is going to penetrate the core on the N to NW sides. It’s hard for a TC to form or strengthen with dry air mixing in like the GFS is showing. Btw the 00z icon and gfs are significantly weaker than prior runs. People have been hyping the RI potential way too much because of the Euro and UK imo. The Fv3 (current gfs) did quite well with intensity last year and that looks to hold true here also. The bigger concern for me is the fire hose of torrential rains aimed at Louisiana which could cause historic flooding. That’s the big story with this one imo.

You are basing your claims off current "looks". Not wise. This was expected.

Also, the new GFS is 3mb stronger than last run so far.

Through 42 hours the GFS was about 1mb weaker and convection more displaced to the south. It’s also East this time so less time over water. It does briefly gets stronger after hour 42 vs the prior run but overall not impressive and heavily sheared/dry air look.

I’ve been doing this for 20 years, I’ve learned a thing or two in that time and the hype on here has been a bit much tonight. People taking about Wilma, Charley, and Katrina RI and making it sound like that could happen here. Those are extreme scenarios with different synoptic setups that are HIGHLY unlikely to occur, especially with models now shifting East and a quicker landfall and still a struggling inner core with little convection. I simply do not see this being more than a moderate tropical storm at landfall. Again, the historic rain and flooding is the issue here imo. Euro has been spitting out over 2 feet of rain as has the gfs and cmc. That’s going to be a MAJOR issue for the areas on the right side of this system.

I might have missed it, but I haven't seen too many people, if any, saying this has a chance to become like Katrina (or anything remotely similar). Yes, this has the potential to rapidly intensify. Models have been--and still are--showing that possibility. Minimal hurricane is the most likely end result, but it could be 10-15kts greater or lesser. Shear will not be an issue with this storm if it is able to fire intense updrafts tomorrow to create its own upper-level shield. This is very much a possibility.

[txwatcher91]

You are basing your claims off current "looks". Not wise. This was expected.

Also, the new GFS is 3mb stronger than last run so far.

Through 42 hours the GFS was about 1mb weaker and convection more displaced to the south. It’s also East this time so less time over water. It does briefly gets stronger after hour 42 vs the prior run but overall not impressive and heavily sheared/dry air look.

I’ve been doing this for 20 years, I’ve learned a thing or two in that time and the hype on here has been a bit much tonight. People taking about Wilma, Charley, and Katrina RI and making it sound like that could happen here. Those are extreme scenarios with different synoptic setups that are HIGHLY unlikely to occur, especially with models now shifting East and a quicker landfall and still a struggling inner core with little convection. I simply do not see this being more than a moderate tropical storm at landfall. Again, the historic rain and flooding is the issue here imo. Euro has been spitting out over 2 feet of rain as has the gfs and cmc. That’s going to be a MAJOR issue for the areas on the right side of this system.

I might have missed it, but I haven't seen too many people, if any, saying this has a chance to become like Katrina (or anything remotely similar). Yes, this has the potential to rapidly intensify. Models have been--and still are--showing that possibility. Minimal hurricane is the most likely end result, but it could be 10-15kts greater or lesser. Shear will not be an issue with this storm if it is able to fire intense updrafts tomorrow to create its own upper-level shield. This is very much a possibility.

Yeah there were some mentions a few pages back about those storms and how they rapidly intensified with the suggestion that this could quickly blow up into something very significant, too much hype imo. We will see what happens but I’ve seen this rodeo before. The lack of a core and convection is a big deal when this only has 42 hours till landfall, establishing a solid inner core, especially with dry air intrusions, takes time. If this had a solid inner core going already I’d have to agree on a cane but as of now the idea of a moderate and sloppy/lopsided TS, 55mph or so, seems pretty reasonable to me.

[Stormcenter]

A word of caution to those who think 92L is on the decline. We've see many storms go from nothing looking to something serious looking in less than a day.

[Steve]

I highly doubt this makes Hurricane status. Too much dry air tomorrow, inner core is struggling to organize and shear plus proximity to land will hold this one down. Latest ICON is only a moderate TS. Main impact imo is likely to be the rain/flooding.

It looks to be ahead of what was progged anyway even though the organization manifested more Friday into Saturday in runs from the last couple of days. Expert said the same thing yesterday, and I thing it's going to be close either way and probably wouldn't actually put money on it one way or the other.

It looks very rough right now with the best RH values it’s going to see. Tomorrow mid level dry air is going to penetrate the core on the N to NW sides. It’s hard for a TC to form or strengthen with dry air mixing in like the GFS is showing. Btw the 00z icon and gfs are significantly weaker than prior runs. People have been hyping the RI potential way too much because of the Euro and UK imo. The Fv3 (current gfs) did quite well with intensity last year and that looks to hold true here also. The bigger concern for me is the fire hose of torrential rains aimed at Louisiana which could cause historic flooding. That’s the big story with this one imo.

I hear you. I don't usually pay that much attention to hype posts, so I wasn't looking at rapid intensification. It's possible of course, but in my mind it was always probably TS/1 unless it took a more western track. I'm on record for that. What I would say is that I never saw it all that crazy tomorrow or Friday day. Most you were probably going to get would be 50 or so. But by Friday night and into Saturday, let's revisit the structure and where we're at compared to what we're looking at for the next 36 hours or so.

[Blinhart]

Baffled by this dry air talk. I can't find any soundings that support these claims. RH values are around 70%.

I am also completely confused, don't know where the GFS is getting the dry air from

[BYG Jacob]

How many freakin times does a storm in the gulf have to RI for people to never doubt anything in the gulf.

[artist]

The euro and the gfs have very different analysis of what dry air there will be at the 72 hr mark. Which will be right...

[Blinhart]

Does anyone have the percentage chances of RI? I know there used to be a chart that said that.

For those that are saying people are over talking the RI, people are just letting people know the chances are there. Many people didn't think Humberto was gonna even form when it was a Tropical Wave and then 2 days later a high end Cat 1 was making land fall.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Again, I ask. What is the negatives for further strengthening? What is causing this storm to poof out right now? It looks extremely weak currently.

[artist]

Does anyone have the percentage chances of RI? I know there used to be a chart that said that.

For those that are saying people are over talking the RI, people are just letting people know the chances are there. Many people didn't think Humberto was gonna even form when it was a Tropical Wave and then 2 days later a high end Cat 1 was making land fall.

rapid intensification is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots in a 24-hour period.

[BobHarlem]

Does anyone have the percentage chances of RI? I know there used to be a chart that said that.

For those that are saying people are over talking the RI, people are just letting people know the chances are there. Many people didn't think Humberto was gonna even form when it was a Tropical Wave and then 2 days later a high end Cat 1 was making land fall.

About 20% chance, See ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/19071 ... _ships.txt

[artist]

Again, I ask. What is the negatives for further strengthening? What is causing this storm to poof out right now? It looks extremely weak currently.

It hasn’t consolidated yet and isn’t supposed to until tomorrow later, probably. It will wax and wane until then.

[Steve]

Baffled by this dry air talk. I can't find any soundings that support these claims. RH values are around 70%.

I am also completely confused, don't know where the GFS is getting the dry air from

Several models have hinted at an Isaac/skeleton like northern half of the storm through a couple of days. You can see it well depicted on the current 15hour HMON which shows a radar simulation. Most of the models that show this do however have a solid wrap in eastern side at landfall that will deliver a foot or more of rain.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=15

[BYG Jacob]

Again, I ask. What is the negatives for further strengthening? What is causing this storm to poof out right now? It looks extremely weak currently.

D-min, convection will retire overnight. This always happens with storms in the formative stages. Once the storm forms a core it will be able to sustain convection.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Again, I ask. What is the negatives for further strengthening? What is causing this storm to poof out right now? It looks extremely weak currently.

It hasn’t consolidated yet and isn’t supposed to until tomorrow later, probably. It will wax and wane until then.

I thought it was ramping up earlier, pressures were dropping and it looked as if the llc had formed. What is stopping it on its path to landfall from strengthening considerably?

[BYG Jacob]

Does anyone have the percentage chances of RI? I know there used to be a chart that said that.

For those that are saying people are over talking the RI, people are just letting people know the chances are there. Many people didn't think Humberto was gonna even form when it was a Tropical Wave and then 2 days later a high end Cat 1 was making land fall.

About 20% chance, See ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/19071 ... _ships.txt

I’d go a bit higher just because the gulf is steaming right now, but that would be nit-picking.

[Steve]

Again, I ask. What is the negatives for further strengthening? What is causing this storm to poof out right now? It looks extremely weak currently.

It hasn’t consolidated yet and isn’t supposed to until tomorrow later, probably. It will wax and wane until then.

I thought it was ramping up earlier, pressures were dropping and it looked as if the llc had formed. What is stopping it on its path to landfall from strengthening considerably?

It's was not classified as a depression yet. So think of any looks of it ramping up as priming an engine at this point.

[txwatcher91]

Does anyone have the percentage chances of RI? I know there used to be a chart that said that.

For those that are saying people are over talking the RI, people are just letting people know the chances are there. Many people didn't think Humberto was gonna even form when it was a Tropical Wave and then 2 days later a high end Cat 1 was making land fall.

I’ve been around a long time. There are certain things you look for when RI is about to occur. This is NOT one of those setups. Yes, it’ll have a brief window before landfall to intensify to a moderate TS and a small chance at a low end cane but that’s it. Look at it on satellite. A storm needs a good solid core and it’s missing the chance to form one before dry air becomes an issue tomorrow.

[txwatcher91]

It looks to be ahead of what was progged anyway even though the organization manifested more Friday into Saturday in runs from the last couple of days. Expert said the same thing yesterday, and I thing it's going to be close either way and probably wouldn't actually put money on it one way or the other.

It looks very rough right now with the best RH values it’s going to see. Tomorrow mid level dry air is going to penetrate the core on the N to NW sides. It’s hard for a TC to form or strengthen with dry air mixing in like the GFS is showing. Btw the 00z icon and gfs are significantly weaker than prior runs. People have been hyping the RI potential way too much because of the Euro and UK imo. The Fv3 (current gfs) did quite well with intensity last year and that looks to hold true here also. The bigger concern for me is the fire hose of torrential rains aimed at Louisiana which could cause historic flooding. That’s the big story with this one imo.

I hear you. I don't usually pay that much attention to hype posts, so I wasn't looking at rapid intensification. It's possible of course, but in my mind it was always probably TS/1 unless it took a more western track. I'm on record for that. What I would say is that I never saw it all that crazy tomorrow or Friday day. Most you were probably going to get would be 50 or so. But by Friday night and into Saturday, let's revisit the structure and where we're at compared to what we're looking at for the next 36 hours or so.

Biggest issue I see is lack of an inner core and inability to get deep convection going, especially this time of night when it’s favored more and not much is happening. It still has time but the window is closing very fast.

[tropicwatch]

There was suppose to be a recon flight right now but I have seen no indication that it has taken off yet. Haven't seen a cancellation notice either.