Which name list will retire all it's original names first?

[AJC3]

This is what I have through 2017. It's basically an update of an earlier post in this thread by CrazyC83.

The numbers in parentheses for each list are the number of remaining and retired names, respectively.

Where there are multiple retirees beginning with the same letter from a single list, the first name listed is the original name.

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (17): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (4): Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Ingrid/Iris, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (12): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (9): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma

[CrazyC83]

This is what I have through 2017. It's basically an update of an earlier post in this thread by CrazyC83.

The numbers in parentheses for each list are the number of remaining and retired names, respectively.

Where there are multiple retirees beginning with the same letter from a single list, the first name listed is the original name.

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (17): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (4): Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Ingrid/Iris, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (12): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (9): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma

Definitely advantage List 3, especially since five early names are still intact that you can guarantee will be used in all but a very dead year. The middle and latter part of that list have been decimated. But we don't see it again until 2023.

This year's list has very little in the way of retired names. Maybe in 2019 another list will jump high?

[HurricaneRyan]

This is what I have through 2017. It's basically an update of an earlier post in this thread by CrazyC83.

The numbers in parentheses for each list are the number of remaining and retired names, respectively.

Where there are multiple retirees beginning with the same letter from a single list, the first name listed is the original name.

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (17): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (4): Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Ingrid/Iris, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (12): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (9): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma

Definitely advantage List 3, especially since five early names are still intact that you can guarantee will be used in all but a very dead year. The middle and latter part of that list have been decimated. But we don't see it again until 2023.

This year's list has very little in the way of retired names. Maybe in 2019 another list will jump high?

I feel like with List 5, which has ALWAYS retired a name off its list each use (even in 1983 which was the quietest season ever in the modern atlantic era and 2013, which was the most infamously dead season across the globe), could easily get Gabrielle, Jerry or Karen out in their next use. Gabrielle has been a major hurricane once before and if done right, could do major damage. J is right next to I as well, and we've seen three J names take the axe since the beginning of the active era, more so than H. So J has a bigger shot than H does at retirement it seems, as it took 21 years between Hortense and Harvey (although Hanna still should have been retired).

[AJC3]

(Updated through the end of the 2018 season - List 4 is still in last place, but increases its number of original retirees from 4 to 6)

The numbers in parentheses for each list are the number of remaining and retired names, respectively.

Where there are multiple retirees beginning with the same letter from a single list, the first name listed is the original name.

List 1 (14): Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
Retired (7): Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin

List 2 (12): Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter
Retired (9): Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas

List 3 (10): Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince
Retired (11): Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma

List 4 (15): Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William
Retired (6): Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael, Sandy

List 5 (11): Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy
Retired (10): Alicia/Allison, Dean, Felix, Hugo, Ingrid/Iris, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne

List 6 (12): Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Retired (9): Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili, Paloma

[SconnieCane]

Yeah, 2018 really helped the previously benign list 4 catch up to the pack. IMO Gordon (which by the way is missing from your post) should have been gone after 1994, and Alberto was borderline with the water damage it did.

[AJC3]

Yeah, 2018 really helped the previously benign list 4 catch up to the pack. IMO Gordon (which by the way is missing from your post) should have been gone after 1994, and Alberto was borderline with the water damage it did.

The reason Gordon isn't on line 1 next to list 4 is because It wasn't on NHC's original set of six TC name lists in 1979 (it replaced Gilbert after the 1988 season). And, of course, the reason it's not anywhere on line 2 is because it hasn't been retired yet.

[CrazyC83]

One challenge is that you need a mixture of really quiet seasons and hyperactive seasons to get the lists cleaned out.

Of the years that retired the A name (1957, 1972, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1992, 2001), only 1980 and 2001 were near to above average - 1980 had a slow start then bang, while 2011 it was an early June storm that became an epic flood disaster. Also, under current naming practices, it is certainly possible some of them would have received a name deeper in the alphabet in the earlier years.

Even for B names (1965, 1967 and 1991) they were all slow years overall. That's not to say we can't get a big landfalling storm in June or July, since that is often what it would take...

Meanwhile, deep in the alphabet you need hyperactive seasons. You're not going to get R, S or W names retired on other lists (all are gone from List 3) unless you have at least 17 named storms in a season (the only other names retired that deep are Roxanne, Sandy and Tomas, all of which were in seasons with 19 storms), and even then often you're talking a late October or a November hurricane. The only hurricanes that peaked in November that are retired are Lenny, Michelle, Noel, Paloma and Otto.

List 1 is one that has everything from Kate onward left, so one hyperactive year in that list (like 2021) could really do some damage. It's been hindered by a whole bunch of slow years - 1997 and 2009 especially, but one big year could really do damage in the bottom of the list especially if it gets to Kate by mid-season. List 5 has been the most efficient as it has never gone without retiring something, even though it had years like 1983 and 2013 that were very slow.

[CrazyC83]

Visualizing by letter for all six lists (Greek letters are not included):

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Never been used)

List 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 2 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 3 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 4 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 5 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 6 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

[somethingfunny]

It's obviously List 3. You've not only reached W for the only time, but gotten it retired as well. Good luck with getting Vince retired in the future, but that's nothing compared to the task every other list has getting both V and W retired - none of them have even reached V yet. None of these lists will be entirely exhausted within the next century

[HurricaneRyan]

Thought I would add some thoughts for this season as we have only seen two named storms so far this year. So here are some things I have to note.

In the past two seasons, we've had a retired storm form at the very end of August. Irma in 2017 and Florence in 2018. If we get another long tracked Cape Verde that impacts land, there is a shot to get another original name retired. Chantal, Erin and Gabrielle are the earliest names on the list that could potentially be named by the end of August depending on what happens in the next couple weeks.

[DioBrando]

Thought I would add some thoughts for this season as we have only seen two named storms so far this year. So here are some things I have to note.

In the past two seasons, we've had a retired storm form at the very end of August. Irma in 2017 and Florence in 2018. If we get another long tracked Cape Verde that impacts land, there is a shot to get another original name retired. Chantal, Erin and Gabrielle are the earliest names on the list that could potentially be named by the end of August depending on what happens in the next couple weeks.

For Chantal, Erin and Gabby, I'd put order them at risk of being kicked out based on how I think patterns are going at the moment:
1) Erin = Gabby
3) Chantal

[HurricaneRyan]

Updating this for 2020.

This year has already had an active start. Josephine and Marco are the next two original names on the list. A lot of replacements in between them

[zhukm29]

This year's early start, combined with the fact that list 6 has rarely gotten far, means that most of the peak season storms will happen with the original names in the middle of the list. Potential candidates (from now on) are Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, and everything from Rene onward (since they've never been used). With all indications so far, there's a fairly good chance that an original name could be on the chopping block.

That being said, it would be quite sad if Marco got retired, since Polo in the EPAC would lose its Atlantic counterpart without both ever existing at the same time. Although, knowing my luck, I've probably jinxed it Marco is an "M" storm after all (and it will likely get named during peak season), and "M" storms have been on a Category 5 streak recently (2019 was just one letter off with Lorenzo, and it could have been the "M" storm had TD3 strengthened just a little bit more).

[CrazyC83]

This year's early start, combined with the fact that list 6 has rarely gotten far, means that most of the peak season storms will happen with the original names in the middle of the list. Potential candidates (from now on) are Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, and everything from Rene onward (since they've never been used). With all indications so far, there's a fairly good chance that an original name could be on the chopping block.

That being said, it would be quite sad if Marco got retired, since Polo in the EPAC would lose its Atlantic counterpart without both ever existing at the same time. Although, knowing my luck, I've probably jinxed it Marco is an "M" storm after all (and it will likely get named during peak season), and "M" storms have been on a Category 5 streak recently (2019 was just one letter off with Lorenzo, and it could have been the "M" storm had TD3 strengthened just a little bit more).

Excellent points. We could definitely do a number in the middle and bottom of this list with the peak season storms. It's likely Marco, Nana and Omar will be September storms. We might get one off the bottom of the list if we get a biggie later in October.

[CrazyC83]

Now with a record busy start, we'll be dealing with almost all original names in the peak season and we'll be able to potentially knock some off the bottom of the list. After all, 2020 hasn't had any clear retirement candidates (Hanna is unlikely IMO and no others are even remotely legitimate) and we're already into the middle of the list...

[Hurricane Mike]

Now with a record busy start, we'll be dealing with almost all original names in the peak season and we'll be able to potentially knock some off the bottom of the list. After all, 2020 hasn't had any clear retirement candidates (Hanna is unlikely IMO and no others are even remotely legitimate) and we're already into the middle of the list...

There are some names that I've always been surprised have just kind of been "there" and never really amounted to much. Nana, Grace, Henri, Danielle, Cindy, Ernesto. Some came close. Fabian 2003 could have been "Grace". If they named The Perfect Storm, it would've been Henri, and Henri also could have been Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Hurricane Charley could have been Danielle in 2004, Cindy could have been Dennis 2005, and Hurricane Ernesto could have been Florence in 2018.

All just happenstance.

[CrazyC83]

Now with a record busy start, we'll be dealing with almost all original names in the peak season and we'll be able to potentially knock some off the bottom of the list. After all, 2020 hasn't had any clear retirement candidates (Hanna is unlikely IMO and no others are even remotely legitimate) and we're already into the middle of the list...

There are some names that I've always been surprised have just kind of been "there" and never really amounted to much. Nana, Grace, Henri, Danielle, Cindy, Ernesto. Some came close. Fabian 2003 could have been "Grace". If they named The Perfect Storm, it would've been Henri, and Henri also could have been Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Hurricane Charley could have been Danielle in 2004, Cindy could have been Dennis 2005, and Hurricane Ernesto could have been Florence in 2018.

All just happenstance.

Andrew would have been Bonnie (at least) under current naming rules as well. Also reanalysis might move the "effective" list around as well.

The "effective" retirements had all known storms, post-reanalysis, been identified:

1954 - Florence, Hazel, Norma
1955 - Brenda, Connie, Hilda, Janet
1957 - Bertha
1960 - Ethel
1961 - Carla, Inga
1963 - Helena
1964 - F____ (list had Florence), Gladys, Katy
1965 - Carol

Two of the storms would have kept their name, while Hazel and Connie were retired for a different storm in their season, Hilda nine years ahead of its time, Florence 64 years ahead of its time and Carol would have waited 11 years.

[CrazyC83]

As far as all the original lists to this point:

1979 - Ana, Claudette, Henri, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda (14)
(Retired: Bob, David, Elena/Erika, Frederic/Fabian, Gloria, Isabel, Juan/Joaquin)

1980 - Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Kyle, Lisa, Nicole, Paula, Richard, Shary, Virginie, Walter (12)
(Retired: Allen/Andrew, Charley, Frances, Georges, Ivan/Igor, Jeanne, Mitch/Matthew, Otto, Tomas)

1981 - Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Jose, Ophelia, Philippe, Tammy, Vince (10)
(Retired: Dennis, Floyd, Harvey, Irene/Irma, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Rita, Stan, Wilma)

1982 - Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Helene, Isaac, Leslie, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Tony, Valerie, William (15)
(Retired: Florence, Gilbert, Joan, Keith, Michael, Sandy)

1983 - Barry, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Pablo, Sebastian, Tanya, Van, Wendy (11)
(Retired: Alicia/Allison, Dean/Dorian*, Felix, Hugo, Iris/Ingrid, Luis, Marilyn/Michelle, Noel, Opal, Roxanne)

1984 - Arthur, Bertha, Edouard, Josephine, Marco, Nana, Omar, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred (12)
(Retired: Cesar, Diana, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore/Ike, Klaus, Lili/Laura*, Paloma)

*presumed, to be determined in the future

Visualizing by letter for all six lists (Greek letters are not included, assumes Dorian is only retired 2019 name and Laura only 2020 name so far):

(Original - Retired - Retired twice - Never been used)

List 1 (next 2021) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 2 (next 2022) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 3 (next 2023) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 4 (next 2024) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 5 (next 2025) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

List 6 (2020/2026) - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21

Since we're already near the middle of the alphabet this year, a lot of potential to knock off some originals. After Kyle and Laura (both should be in August at this rate), the entire middle to late season will have original names with the exception of Paulette.

[zhukm29]

Here's an insane stat: it's only September 1, and every single name remaining on this list has never been used before (although Paulette was a replacement for Paloma). I don't see how list 6 will make it out of the 2020 season unscathed (unless, of course, all the remaining big ones end up with Greek names ).

[CrazyC83]

Here's an insane stat: it's only September 1, and every single name remaining on this list has never been used before (although Paulette was a replacement for Paloma). I don't see how list 6 will make it out of the 2020 season unscathed (unless, of course, all the remaining big ones end up with Greek names ).

We likely haven't retired an original yet in 2020 though (although Laura is almost certainly retired, Laura replaced Lili), but we have 5 original names left (Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred) and that's peak season.