ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

I don't see where the dry air is gonna come from.

[artist]

It looks very rough right now with the best RH values it’s going to see. Tomorrow mid level dry air is going to penetrate the core on the N to NW sides. It’s hard for a TC to form or strengthen with dry air mixing in like the GFS is showing. Btw the 00z icon and gfs are significantly weaker than prior runs. People have been hyping the RI potential way too much because of the Euro and UK imo. The Fv3 (current gfs) did quite well with intensity last year and that looks to hold true here also. The bigger concern for me is the fire hose of torrential rains aimed at Louisiana which could cause historic flooding. That’s the big story with this one imo.

I hear you. I don't usually pay that much attention to hype posts, so I wasn't looking at rapid intensification. It's possible of course, but in my mind it was always probably TS/1 unless it took a more western track. I'm on record for that. What I would say is that I never saw it all that crazy tomorrow or Friday day. Most you were probably going to get would be 50 or so. But by Friday night and into Saturday, let's revisit the structure and where we're at compared to what we're looking at for the next 36 hours or so.

Biggest issue I see is lack of an inner core and inability to get deep convection going, especially this time of night when it’s favored more and not much is happening. It still has time but the window is closing very fast.

It has been predicted not to be classified yet. And you fail to realize they are sitting with a river that is supposed to hit the top of the levees in New Orleans on Sat and does not need lots of extra rain, even. Your discounting the storm when it is pretty much as the NHC said it would be at this point, is well, doing a disservice.

[artist]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-GM-08-1000x1000.gif

I don't see where the dry air is gonna come from.

The last run of the euro didn’t really see it either.

[Blinhart]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

In IR it looks pretty good.

[txwatcher91]

I hear you. I don't usually pay that much attention to hype posts, so I wasn't looking at rapid intensification. It's possible of course, but in my mind it was always probably TS/1 unless it took a more western track. I'm on record for that. What I would say is that I never saw it all that crazy tomorrow or Friday day. Most you were probably going to get would be 50 or so. But by Friday night and into Saturday, let's revisit the structure and where we're at compared to what we're looking at for the next 36 hours or so.

Biggest issue I see is lack of an inner core and inability to get deep convection going, especially this time of night when it’s favored more and not much is happening. It still has time but the window is closing very fast.

It has been predicted not to be classified yet. And you fail to realize they are sitting with a river that is supposed to hit the top of the levees in New Orleans on Sat and does not need lots of extra rain, even. Your discounting the storm when it is pretty much as the NHC said it would be at this point, is well, doing a disservice.

Not discounting it, I said flooding is going to be a major issue, read my posts. I said RI that has been hyped up on here all day is not looking likely. The rain is going to be an issue no matter what with historic flooding but I don’t think wind will be much of a problem since a tropical storm at best is what I think we will see.

[Blinhart]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.gif

Everything looks like the way it is suppose to according to yesterday's runs. So I don't understand why everyone is like it looks horrible. According to the runs it was suppose to break down a little tonight and blow up tomorrow morning with the sun rising up.

[txwatcher91]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-GM-08-1000x1000.gif

I don't see where the dry air is gonna come from.

Here’s a link to the GFS mid-level dry air. Loop it through and you’ll see.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 71100&fh=6

[Steve]

HMON comes in just east of the city. Rigolets, Chef Pass, Chalmette/St. Bernard Parish, Slidell get the worst from HMON.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=60

[artist]

This was taken earlier today in Morgan City

[Steve]

HWRF crosses New Orleans with the eye Saturday morning. It looks better on land in the radar depiction.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1100&fh=60

[MississippiWx]

This was taken earlier today in Morgan City
https://imgur.com/NX78WDH

Looks like the alien spaceships on Independence Day.

[gulf701]

That’s all well and good for those of us who have the means. Hurricanes Katrina and Maria showed us a significant portion of Americans are impoverished enough to need help. There’s a ton of positive roles for the government in extreme weather events from forecasting to flying recon missions to search and rescue to making evacuation routes safe to recovery etc. then we have hospitals, fire and ems units along with many of our service people in shelters and recovery pavilions who might just be passing out a bottle of cold water to people waiting in hours long lines just to apply for roof tarps and other immediate needs. Don’t be a hater imho.

That didn’t sound like a hater, but someone that has lived through the reality of the aftermath of a storm. For those that have the means, it can be a life saver, and will help the govt be able to concentrate more on those that don’t.

I mean we saw the convention center in 2005. Though 90% of the New Orleans metro area evacuated, there were still 100,000 people who had no means to get out. Obviously those of us all who can need to do whatever we are able and take personal responsibility. And we do. But even for those of us who have the means, if we run into an emergency like many people did with water coming up fast in places it never had during Harvey, you may have to rely on a shelter. I've also lived through the aftermath of a storm where I lost everything. So I know a little bit about it too. I wasn't disregarding the good advice to be prepared and have your act together at all. It was more about the idea of "do not look to the government to take care of you." It doesn't seem like one size fits all to me.

Steve,
My post was ment to convey "Hope for best, prepare for the worst". Your right, one size dosen't fit all. Katrina was not Michael and Michael was not Katrina. New Orleans is not the panhandle of Florida. Every location will have its unique response and recovery challanges. If you still live in the impack area, good luck and be safe.

[artist]

Anyone else having trouble staying signed in?

[MississippiWx]

Anyone else having trouble staying signed in?

I am. It's annoying.

[artist]

Anyone else having trouble staying signed in?

I am. It's annoying.

Thank you. Thought it was just me. I can’t like a post, or edit one suddenly either.

[disneymanda]

Trouble staying signed in only on some pages on forum.


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[artist]

Trouble staying signed in only on some pages on forum.


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Yep, same here

[artist]

Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this
time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression
later today.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


From the 2 am

[Blinhart]

Trouble staying signed in only on some pages on forum.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep, same here

Same here, but what is weird we are able to quote and post even though at the top it doesn't show us signed in. Just hard not able to go to last unread post.

[hurricaneCW]

There's a good chance this reaches min Cat 1 status, it is a smaller system which could intensify quicker.

On the other hand close proximity to the continent is normally not a good thing for developing storms. The northern gulf has notoriously killed off many strong hurricanes due to shear/continental dry air entrainment.

The intensity won't really matter though, it's still likely to produce a 3-4 foot surge and very heavy rainfall unless it never gets going (highly unlikely). I'm sure they'll be a lot of nervous people in Louisiana this weekend.