ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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crimi481
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#761 Postby crimi481 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:29 am

is the center moving east?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#762 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:38 am

crimi481 wrote:is the center moving east?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined


Several models actually show the center performing several cyclonic loops as it consolidates.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#763 Postby Airboy » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:45 am

Have they canceled recon flight three?
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#764 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:50 am

UL PV is too close to the CoC and pushing convection way to the west.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#765 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:06 am

Looks like crap this morning, maybe Wxman57 was right that this will not amount to much but a sloppy rainmaker. Conditions clearly aren’t that favorable in the GoM.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#766 Postby Airboy » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:26 am

Kermit is in the air and finds some stronger winds on the surface.
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 kts (48.3 mph)
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#767 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:37 am

Vertical instability in the Gulf is below average, that might explain why this thing is struggling.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#768 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:44 am

I wonder how far south it is going to get pulled...
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#769 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:53 am

Last drop shows good lapse rate and RH thru 600mb.
Beginning to entrain 3500 CAPE air on the west side.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#770 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:02 am

Just checked latest GFS UL forecast.
The UL PV to the NE should dissipate within 24 hrs and a strong anti-cyclone will develop to the west.
A deep CAPE ridge will pretty much be under the anti-cyclone and this puppy will walk right into it.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#771 Postby Airboy » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:05 am

The TD upgrade is probaly immenent I would say.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#772 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:20 am

It has dropped pretty significantly to the sw overnight. Looks to be south of where all the models had it.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#773 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:24 am

Down at 26.7 ... thats a big jump...
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#774 Postby Airboy » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:25 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Down at 26.7 ... thats a big jump...


mm, the center is at 28.0N 88.0W from recon.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#775 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:27 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Down at 26.7 ... thats a big jump...


Pressure is not as low in that area.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#776 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:29 am

Airboy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Down at 26.7 ... thats a big jump...


mm, the center is at 28.0N 88.0W from recon.


Nope...

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#777 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:31 am

Whatever they flew through up north cant be the center...
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#778 Postby Airboy » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:33 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Whatever they flew through up north cant be the center...


What? it clearly looks to be the center to me?
But I guess we will know soon
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#779 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:34 am

Airboy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Whatever they flew through up north cant be the center...


What? it clearly looks to be the center to me?
and there is something well too the sw too. And to the sw has most of the convection and overall energy.. so maybe its reforming.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO - Discussion

#780 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:36 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Whatever they flew through up north cant be the center...


And the center is center is not as far south either. For now it still looks broad, unless they find something with a distinct tight circulation.
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