ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah looks like from the data it is trying to reforn to the sw.. interesting..

[Airboy]

Yeah looks like from the data it is trying to reforn to the sw.. interesting..

You could be right.

[Blinhart]

Yeah looks like from the data it is trying to reforn to the sw.. interesting..

Wouldn't be too surprised that it reforms down there, that is where all the energy is.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah if you look at satellite you can see that vort they flew through shooting to the wnw out of the convection ... which means it will eventually die.

[N2FSU]

Yeah looks like from the data it is trying to reforn to the sw.. interesting..

Track implications?

[Aric Dunn]

And if it does ultimately end up reforming that far south. Will likely change track significantly... interesting next few hours.

[wxman57]

Growing consensus for a track into eastern Vermilion Bay Saturday morning, a bit east of the NHC track. Could be a hurricane at landfall. That will put a lot of rain into Baton Rouge & New Orleans, two areas that don't need any.

[NDG]

If anything the recon still shows a broad surface low with several vorticities rotating around it, but the circulation looks a little tighter than yesterday afternoon.

[davidiowx]

This looks like a mess to me this morning.. then again I am still half asleep. I was somewhat expecting it to be a little better organized but it doesn’t appear to be at all.

[SFLcane]

Still very disorganized per recon this morning no well llc as of yet hopefully never.

[Stormcenter]

The key thing to note from the NHC discussion is
that it has not moved much at all the last 6 hours or so. That in itself is not good at all.....more time over
very warm Gulf to organize.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep that vort to the north is dying out and opening up as it heads wnw. All that calm wind in the will fill in as the other vort/circ takes over somewhere to the sw.

[Aric Dunn]

The key thing to note from the NHC discussion is
that it has not moved much at all the last 6 hours or so. That in itself is not good at all.....more time over
very warm Gulf to organize.

That was before recon.

[NDG]

Growing consensus for a track into eastern Vermilion Bay Saturday morning, a bit east of the NHC track. Could be a hurricane at landfall. That will put a lot of rain into Baton Rouge & New Orleans, two areas that don't need any.

The Euro shows that the system will take a whole 12 hours to get from near Morgan City to I-10 between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. That's going to be a lot of rain for a long period of time that somebody in SE LA will get if this run was to be correct.

[NDG]

Yep that vort to the north is dying out and opening up as it heads wnw. All that calm wind in the will fill in as the other vort/circ takes over somewhere to the sw.

But the lowest pressure is still closer to 28N

[Aric Dunn]

If we look at the HRRR it seems to be showing what might be going on. Vort to the north dies and then overall circ takes over to the Sw..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1108&fh=18

[NDG]

Yep that vort to the north is dying out and opening up as it heads wnw. All that calm wind in the will fill in as the other vort/circ takes over somewhere to the sw.

But the lowest pressure is still closer to 28N, if there would had been S or SE winds to the east of that vortiticy to the SW, I would had given you credit for your hypothesis. Instead there is nothing but W winds to the east of it and higher pressures.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep that vort to the north is dying out and opening up as it heads wnw. All that calm wind in the will fill in as the other vort/circ takes over somewhere to the sw.

But the lowest pressure is still closer to 28N

This happens alot. It will weaken and that pressure will rise. You can see the vort on sat moving wnw. Next pass to the south might show lower pressure. Besides it was 1 mb difference between the two. And the south west one has all the convection.. soooo ?

[Aric Dunn]

Yep that vort to the north is dying out and opening up as it heads wnw. All that calm wind in the will fill in as the other vort/circ takes over somewhere to the sw.

But the lowest pressure is still closer to 28N

Being it might be in the process of reforming down there This happens alot. It will weaken and that pressure will rise. You can see the vort on sat moving wnw. Next pass to the south might show lower pressure. Besides it was 1 mb difference between the two. And the south west one has all the convection.. soooo ?

[NDG]

What is going on with this site this morning, it keeps logging me in and out in between posts????