ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

What is going on with this site this morning, it keeps logging me in and out in between posts????

Yeah same.

[NDG]

But the lowest pressure is still closer to 28N

Being it might be in the process of reforming down there This happens alot. It will weaken and that pressure will rise. You can see the vort on sat moving wnw. Next pass to the south might show lower pressure. Besides it was 1 mb difference between the two. And the south west one has all the convection.. soooo ?

But like I said, there is nothing but west winds to the east of it, I just think is just a vort max that has been rotating around the over all circulation.

[NDG]

What is going on with this site this morning, it keeps logging me in and out in between posts????

Yeah same.

I can't even click "like" on a post because it immediately logs me out

[Aric Dunn]

Being it might be in the process of reforming down there This happens alot. It will weaken and that pressure will rise. You can see the vort on sat moving wnw. Next pass to the south might show lower pressure. Besides it was 1 mb difference between the two. And the south west one has all the convection.. soooo ?

But like I said, there is nothing but west winds to the east of it, I just think is just a vort max that has been rotating around the over all circulation.

Extremely light no calm winds lol that can fill in with east winds very quickly.

[BobHarlem]

I like looking at water vapor loops as well when things are murky and this is similar to what I saw, but I think it's just one of many things going on that is making me doubt a lot of the models.

 https://twitter.com/DrewitzWx/status/1149273653995085824

[txwatcher91]

Yep that vort to the north is dying out and opening up as it heads wnw. All that calm wind in the will fill in as the other vort/circ takes over somewhere to the sw.

But the lowest pressure is still closer to 28N

This happens alot. It will weaken and that pressure will rise. You can see the vort on sat moving wnw. Next pass to the south might show lower pressure. Besides it was 1 mb difference between the two. And the south west one has all the convection.. soooo ?

Some models have shown the center jumping around to the SSW then back N or NW as it does some cyclonic loops and jumps around. Point is this storm is highly disorganized, the mid-level dry air later today and shear will make this a very lopsided storm that struggles to strengthen. Central to eastern Louisiana is landfall zone there is strong agreement on that even with models that show the center jumping sw some. This will be a moderate TS at best. Main threat is going to be historic flooding potential.

[Stormcenter]

The overall structure of the storm is slowly improving. IMO

[Frank P]

Looks to me watching the long 50 frame IR sat loop presentation that convection is certainly starting to rebuild again in the past hour or so, albeit slowly but surely.

[p1nheadlarry]

Woke up to a lower pressure but still sloppy. Northerlies (blue, 100-250 hPa) disrupting it a bit perhaps?

[Hurricane Andrew]

What is going on with this site this morning, it keeps logging me in and out in between posts????

Yeah same.

Same here as well.

[NDG]

It's satellite presentation this morning is no surprise on the Euro's forecast.

[p1nheadlarry]

It's satellite presentation this morning is no surprise on the Euro's forecast.

https://i.imgur.com/Z2Ke7pj.png

Might have to look at a sounding from Mobile or Slidell at two points, but I wonder how much the pbl has cooled with all the rainfall/convection the last day or two (in addition to entrainment), could be another reason why the north half is not seeing as much storminess.

[NDG]

1.According to the Euro deep convection is going to get even farther away from the broad circulation during the day today.
2.Not start build close to the center until late tonight if not tomorrow morning.
3.And finally start wrapping around the COC by tomorrow afternoon. So I don't expect much intensification/organization during the day today. This maybe another case in which any significant intensification doesn't happen until close to landfall or while making landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Lol you can see the vort very clearly that recon flew threw shooting wnw that was not the center it will soon die out. Have to start looking down around 26 to 27 N ..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[sphelps8681]

Looks as though GEFS/EPS have shifted more west from previous runs.

[StormLogic]

If the center is further S hello texas lol

[tarheelprogrammer]

This system is struggling mightily, currently. It is hard to spot a COC. A naked vort running around the system. It is very odd looking. It looks doubtful that this system will track further west than the models are depicting (excluding UKMET). It is starting to look like a moderate TS is peak intensity and rain has always been the bigger issue here anyways. Just an opinion and not an official forecast.

[NDG]

Naked eddie alert, rotating around the broad circulation.

[p1nheadlarry]

00z today vs yesterday in Slidell. Looks like a sounding before thunderstorms and one after: Definitely cooler; lapse rate in the lower levels is less steep (not far from dry adiabatic yesterday) and the LCL is higher up. Wanted a 06z comparison but couldn’t find yesterday’s.

[BobHarlem]

HWRF/HMON Showing Mississippi landfalls, UK Still West, still no good organization or agreement on models (Hi UK). Disorganized on Satellite (along with N shear), recon showing mixed messages. To anyone doing official forecasting, good luck with this.

also
 https://twitter.com/DrewitzWx/status/1149285453750816768