ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gfsperpendicular]

Wow, it's getting destroyed by northerly shear. Hopefully that will keep the rainfall down.

[NDG]

AF recon just flew through another eddy, this one west of the broad circulation.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looking at early morning visible and that naked vort appears to be the COC. Interesting. Convection sheared off and now the old COC rotating around a large and broad circulation. Shear is taking its toll for sure.

[MississippiWx]

What a mess we have on our hands this morning. You would think this originated out of the monsoon trough with the large convection-less center, relatively low pressure, and smaller circulations rotating around. Models have been advertising this in the erratic motions we have seen as the center seems to jump around on model forecasts. I'm not very surprised by this because of that fact.

[MississippiWx]

Sorry, guys. I thought I was editing my post, but I actually quoted it..twice. Mods, please delete the first two if you are around.

[GCANE]

Pretty easy to see on WV the UL PV to the NE.
Sinking air here with the UL vort disrupting the LL Vort and pushing convection well west of the CoC.
This feature is forecast to dissipate within 24 hrs.
A large anticyclone will build to the west of the CoC, around the Houston area.

[Aric Dunn]

So many vorts.. lol

I am going tonstick with the sw most area. Has all the convection and greatest energy potential.

[tolakram]

Just keep in mind that regardless of the classification very few people will get the strong winds, it's the rain, and the rain in the wrong place, that's the issue.

As far as site issues, I haven't had any problems this morning either posting or liking posts. Hopefully the problem sorted itself out.

[txwatcher91]

This system is an absolute mess. It's going to be slow to organize, if any, with northerly shear impacting it today and dry air getting into the core later this afternoon/tonight if models are correct.

[cycloneye]

Well,I posted last night that the fist has begun,but not so fast I say now.

[GCANE]

Recon showing a nice wind field on the SW quad

[cycloneye]

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 11/1201Z

C. 27.6N

D. 88.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING WHICH RESULTS IN
DT OF 1.5. PT AND MET AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEVINE

[Aric Dunn]

Per recon. Here is what we know.. we have stable north winds out the the west and east with multiple vorts in the middle.
Given the shear and convection thenlikely place for a circ to tighten once that vort weakens over land later is down on the southern half of that circle.

[NDG]

So many vorts.. lol

I am going tonstick with the sw most area. Has all the convection and greatest energy potential.

Even if it does it will rotate around the mean circulation

[Aric Dunn]

So many vorts.. lol

I am going tonstick with the sw most area. Has all the convection and greatest energy potential.

Even if it does it will rotate around the mean circulation

Unless it consolidates down there..

[TexasF6]

I don't buy the naked swirl as the center. That thing is dead Jim! I look for a reformation further south. One of my meteorological mentors always said, "storms in the Gulf of Mexico can be highly unpredictable at times." The naked swirl is marching into Louisiana, but where will the new center form and go?






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[wxman57]

Center appears to be north of earlier estimates, around 27.9N/89W. I see a ship 65nm east of the center reporting 50kt SSW wind, but it isn't in any squalls and that wind ob doesn't fit other obs in the area.

[tarheelprogrammer]

If we guess the correct center location, can we get a prize? Anyone want to start a poll I kid, I kid. On a side note, it appears as if PTC2 is about to make its first landfall in LA

[gatorcane]

Doesn’t look too great this morning. That said it shouldn’t be surprising as models don’t really show this thing really organizing until tomorrow. That said we can see how difficult it is to get a major hurricane to hit the northern Gulf coast. Dry continental air is usually a factor and in this case add shear on top of that.

[wxman57]

Here's a sat pic with surface obs. Can see the center where the red crosshairs are. That's where recon found it, though it's not well-defined yet. Farther north center means farther east landfall. Might miss Vermilion Bay to the east.