ATL: BARRY - Models

[Frank P]

06 Euro has it coming ashore around Caillou Bay, then moving N just east of Morgan City from the way it looks.

What was the intensity, that appears to be another shift east? Thanks

[NDG]

Another slight shift to the east by the 06z Euro, slightly stronger.

[Pearl River]

Pearl River wrote:
06 Euro has it coming ashore around Caillou Bay, then moving N just east of Morgan City from the way it looks.

Frank P
What was the intensity, that appears to be another shift east? Thanks

10 meter was 65mph

[Frank P]

Pearl River wrote:
06 Euro has it coming ashore around Caillou Bay, then moving N just east of Morgan City from the way it looks.

Frank P
What was the intensity, that appears to be another shift east? Thanks

10 meter was 65mph

Thanks, site does not allow me to post likes

[TheProfessor]

Until we get a tight circulation to form I'm not going to bank or count out any model right now. Once we have a nice closed circulation(if we get one) then I'll put more stock in the track of the storm.

[Steve]

Also, I'd like to hear StormLogic's take on the track since he's been saying since Monday that the models were wrong except the western ones.

[ColdMiser123]

12k NAM is quite a bit stronger than 6z, and a decent tick SW.

[Nederlander]

ICON solution looks most plausible to me. I don’t buy the GFS/other east tracks. It will need to gain some decent latitude today for that to verify, and it would need to start doing that now.

[sphelps8681]

ICON solution looks most plausible to me. I don’t buy the GFS/other east tracks. It will need to gain some decent latitude today for that to verify, and it would need to start doing that now.

I was just about to ask when does this need to start heading north for the forecast to verify.

[Frank P]

12k NAM is quite a bit stronger than 6z, and a decent tick SW.

at hour 28 looks to be pretty close to the 06z model, at few mbs lower.. imo

[ColdMiser123]

12k NAM is quite a bit stronger than 6z, and a decent tick SW.

at hour 28 looks to be pretty close to the 06z model, at few mbs lower.. imo

That bump SW makes all the difference in intensity.

[Frank P]

3K NAM hour 33... 967 mb heading towards SELA very slowly

[StormLogic]

Also, I'd like to hear StormLogic's take on the track since he's been saying since Monday that the models were wrong except the western ones.

Until the two spins get stacked we must wait to gather more data for confirmation of track. With that being said, my forecast remains about the same as I'm not buying the sharp eastward trend models just yet.

[Frank P]

12k NAM is quite a bit stronger than 6z, and a decent tick SW.

at hour 28 looks to be pretty close to the 06z model, at few mbs lower.. imo

That bump SW makes all the difference in intensity.

https://i.imgur.com/mauf6rY.gif

my bad, I am looking at the 3K NAM... not the 12K NAM...

[sphelps8681]

at hour 28 looks to be pretty close to the 06z model, at few mbs lower.. imo

That bump SW makes all the difference in intensity.

https://i.imgur.com/mauf6rY.gif

my bad, I am looking at the 3K NAM... not the 12K NAM...

I was wondering what the heck were you looking at. Had to go back a couple of times to check. LOL!!

[Frank P]

3k 12z NAM stronger and a tad shift to the sw thru h33

[Frank P]

12Z 3k NAM at h44 landfall just east of Vermillion Bay pressure 960, slight shift SW from 06Z run

[Blinhart]

12k NAM is quite a bit stronger than 6z, and a decent tick SW.

at hour 28 looks to be pretty close to the 06z model, at few mbs lower.. imo

That bump SW makes all the difference in intensity.

https://i.imgur.com/mauf6rY.gif

If you look at the shoreline of Louisiana, a shift of only 15 to 20 miles West can cause quite a bit difference in amount of time over water and type of swamp land it will hit. Since the shoreline is not straight it has a major change in distance into the gulf. So that is why we always worry about landfall area here in Louisiana, we have many different spots we look at to determine stuff, Grand Isle (Mouth of Mississippi), Morgan City (Mouth of Atchafalaya), Intercoastal City (Vermillion Bay), Grand Chenier (Mouth of Mermentau), Cameron (Mouth of Calcasieu), and Sabine Pass (Mouth of Sabine), all of these areas give us people that live along I-10 in South Louisiana an idea of what to expect.

[TorSkk]

12Z 3k NAM at h44 landfall just east of Vermillion Bay pressure 960, slight shift SW from 06Z run

I think this model can be discarded after showing a sub 890 storm a few runs in a row...

[sphelps8681]

ICON 12z loading and at hr 3 looks further south than previous run. Correct me if i am wrong been looking at this stuff to long.