ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Is it not possible for the circulation to be pulled under that massive flare up south of Lake Charles?

No.

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1149341485638324224

Yup, that is the issue right now with Barry.
It's UL dry air combined with a 200mb Vort (UL PV Anomaly)
This creates sinking air and skews Barry's LL Vorts away from it, in this case to the west.

However, this feature has some moisture starting to build in it.
Very likely afternoon popups will significantly erode this and allow Barry to snap back and intensify.

[SoupBone]

Is it not possible for the circulation to be pulled under that massive flare up south of Lake Charles?

No.

Succint, concise, and to the point. I like you. I bet you're a guy that loves cold weather and snow. The snowier and colder, the better.

[gfsperpendicular]

I feel like the approaching DMAX phase will give us an indication of Barry's landfall intensity - Hurricane if he pops new towers and cuts into the UL dry air, and TS if he doesn't.

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[p1nheadlarry]

Is it not possible for the circulation to be pulled under that massive flare up south of Lake Charles?

That's pretty far and the LLC is already defined, hence it being a named storm

[sphelps8681]

Is it not possible for the circulation to be pulled under that massive flare up south of Lake Charles?

No.

Succint, concise, and to the point. I like you. I bet you're a guy that loves cold weather and snow. The snowier and colder, the better.

Just like a parent No. He could have said will see. LOL!! Love ya wxman57.

[GCANE]

No doubt Barry's LL Vorts are improving.
Once he breaks from the NE Dry Slot, it could go quick.

[p1nheadlarry]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1149341485638324224

Yep something I pointed out last night that people seemed to be ignoring when calling for RI possibilities. Last night the system was wrapped in a nice envelope of high humidity to work with, establish an inner core and try to ramp up. It was unable to do so due to the shear and structural issues and now today it's fighting shear, proximity to land and significant dry air. Flooding is going to be the main threat with this one, I don't think it makes it to hurricane status. Recon is finding pressures in the 1006-1007 range and convection is still displaced well to the south. As it turns NW to N I expect the convection to the south to shift more to the east as modeled and whoever gets stuck under those heavy bands will have major flooding issues to deal with. Hopefully New Orleans will be spared.

And you saw that in the soundings from Slidell earlier today versus 24 hours prior: drier aloft and weaker lapse rates. Also evaporative cooling from the convection that had been firing along the coast the past day or so has a stabilizing effect.

[p1nheadlarry]

Is it not possible for the circulation to be pulled under that massive flare up south of Lake Charles?

No.

Succint, concise, and to the point. I like you. I bet you're a guy that loves cold weather and snow. The snowier and colder, the better.

But his avatar clearly states that he likes it hot!

[GCANE]

Ha ha.
Naked swirl is taking a sharp turn to the south.
Headed to the deep convection.

[Blinhart]

Is it not possible for the circulation to be pulled under that massive flare up south of Lake Charles?

That's pretty far and the LLC is already defined, hence it being a named storm

But we have seen many LLC move or be replaced, so saying this is not catamount to being the truth. If a better stronger LLC forms it could cause the current one to either disappear or merge with the stronger one. I'm not saying this is gonna happen, but wouldn't be surprised to see the LLC end up further SW than it is right now, not near the large flare up south of Lake Charles but maybe due south of Morgan City.

[Stormcenter]

looking at the overall storm right now, it is definitely looking like it's getting it's act together. IMO

Oh and the center is not going to reform way west.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1149352989741789184

[GCANE]

CAPE running 4000 over N FL.
Strong popups should fire off soon.
Air flow is directly into the dry slot.
That should take a bid chunk out it quickly which in turn should quickly improve the convective inhibition on the NE quad.

[Tireman4]

No.

Succint, concise, and to the point. I like you. I bet you're a guy that loves cold weather and snow. The snowier and colder, the better.

But his avatar clearly states that he likes it hot!

That is a false facade..he is a man that loves snow, cold temperatures, sleet and freezing rain. He just abhors the melting heat

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Classic sloppy early-July GOMEX system.

[wxman57]

Classic sloppy early-July GOMEX system.

https://i.imgur.com/DhJH4H1.jpg

I see building convection over the main center about 60 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi. Could be the start of something...

I'm thinking that if any changes need to be made to the track, then it needs to be nudged a little more to the east at landfall. Could well move inland east of Vermilion Bay. As for hurricane intensity - I'm still not so sure...

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1149370916754866176

[GCANE]

Swirl popped one.

[mulley]

Levi’s latest at 12:32pm CDT https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/sta ... 66176?s=21
@TropicalTidbits
[#NerdTweet] Nowcasting this afternoon involves watching the next meso-vortex to rotate down into the southern semicircle. The last one did not get anchored to any deep convection & amplify. If the next one does, it could precede intensification and/or a SW tug on the circulation