ATL: BARRY - Models
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Inland and over New Orleans by 48 hours. Still not much on the north side.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1118&fh=48
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1118&fh=48
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Credit to the GFS for forecasting a couple of days ago dry northerly shear to affect the system as it tracked over the central GOM. I was questioning it back then when conditions were almost perfect across the GOM but it was absolutely right that it was not going to stay like that.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
gatorcane wrote:Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?
That is correct.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Barry pretty typical early season storm. Lopsided and sheared with dry air intrusion. I'm having my doubts it ever reaches hurricane status and unless it explodes convection overnight I believe the rainfall totals might be overdone. But good for us if it stays weak and disorganized. The new GFS has done well with the storm so far.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Winds have definitely increased as the circulation continues to tighten. As the shear lets up a bit, it will take another step up in intensity. Judging by the way the south side of this system looks, this would have been a rather strong hurricane had the shear not increased.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
NDG wrote:gatorcane wrote:Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?
That is correct.
And maybe one day we can move on from the silly King Euro crap as it diminishes the value and importance of all models and model blend. As I recall the UKMET had some good scores last year as well. Model blend folks. Model blend. Some models score better based on time or year, location, fronts, dry air etc...
Last edited by caneman on Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
caneman wrote:NDG wrote:gatorcane wrote:Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?
This still isn’t over with
That is correct.
And maybe one day we can move on from the silly King Euro crap as it diminishes the value and importance of all models and model blend. As I recall the UKMET had some good scores last year as well. Model blend folks. Model blend. Some models score better based on time or year, location etc...
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- StormLogic
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
mid level moisture starting to really pan out
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Did the HWRF finally give up on it's far eastern track? Looks like 18z more in line with GFS and ECMWF
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Yikes. HWRF a disaster for southeast LA. Training bands of rain. Big shift west.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Well....might actually want to ignore the 18z HWRF I have been posting. It has massive problems with its 500MB vorticity. Not sure what is going wrong.
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
18z Euro landfall around Iberia/Vermilion Parish border and the center moves NNW from there just barely west of Lafayette. Drops 12.1" here through the next 72 hours...
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- Audrey2Katrina
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
MississippiWx wrote:Winds have definitely increased as the circulation continues to tighten. As the shear lets up a bit, it will take another step up in intensity. Judging by the way the south side of this system looks, this would have been a rather strong hurricane had the shear not increased.
Well, Thank God for small favors... and wind shear!
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro landfall around Iberia/Vermilion Parish border and the center moves NNW from there just barely west of Lafayette. Drops 12.1" here through the next 72 hours...
Euro has been fairly narrow from several days out and has done a mostly good job overall with landfall location if it verifies within 100-150 miles.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
The GFS legacy consistent with putting NOLA in the crosshairs for a lot of rain and even some strong winds:
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