ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[shiny-pebble]

10pm advisory up to 50mph 1001mb and no longer forecast to become a hurricane peak is 70mph. Track looks very close to previous.

It is forecasted to be a hurricane, it just isn't shown on the map because of the timing

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[Nederlander]

From abc13 (HOU) met Travis Herzog:


8PM Thursday Tropical Update:

Barry is getting a little stronger in the Gulf, and I don't like that I'm seeing an increased spread in the computer model forecasts this evening. We're just 24-48 hours from Barry making landfall, and we still don't have a good lock on when it will turn north.

Let me be clear: Louisiana is going to receive severe impacts from Barry. I would strongly discourage travel through the state this weekend.

But for us in Houston, we still having this lingering uncertainty over our impacts. I don't think they'll be serious like what will happen to our friends in Cajun country, but I won't have complete peace until I see Barry either form a single center of circulation or make the turn north.

As I mentioned in my earlier post, we have a guarded optimism about the impacts here in southeast Texas, but our local National Weather Service office cautioned we must remain vigilant until it makes that turn north or confidence grows in the forecast. Even the National Hurricane Center is still cautioning about the higher than normal level of uncertainty with the track.

We should know when wake up Friday whether the forecast model aimed at Houston is right or wrong. It shows a straight west path while the others make a northwest turn. The reason that particular model, known as the UKMET, is not taken lightly is because it is historically the 2nd best performing model when it comes to hurricane tracks.

You can watch my latest in-depth update here, including different rainfall scenarios based on it if tracks up the middle of the cone, along the left edge of the cone, or along the right edge of the cone: https://abc13.com/weather/eye-on-the-gu ... r/5383125/

I'll update you again in the morning.

[AnnularCane]

i live in orleans parish and it isn't even raining here. gusty winds and cloudy skies but no rain. i'm sure it's coming.

Standing on a levee by the jewel streets watching a dry outer band approach good luck.

Are you in the Lakeshore area? My cousin lived in that neighborhood.

Be careful!

[galaxy401]

10pm advisory up to 50mph 1001mb and no longer forecast to become a hurricane peak is 70mph. Track looks very close to previous.

It is forecasted to be a hurricane, it just isn't shown on the map because of the timing

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From the advisory:
"Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show
Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur
before landfall."

They're not exactly forecasting hurricane strength at landfall but the odds are still possible it might.

[Craters]

Nighttime view http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=eumetsat_nighttime_microphysics&x=4486&y=5432

Is this 3d to anyone else .. or am i seeing things ? lol

I'm not sure about the 3d part, but I could swear that I saw the same scene in 2001: A Space Odyssey...

[tarheelprogrammer]

It appears as if the dry air is starting to lose out to the convection, Barry is slowly but surely building a better presentation. Lets see if he can maintain it. I am doubtful lol

[SouthFloridawx]

It appears as if the dry air is starting to lose out to the convection, Barry is slowly but surely building a better presentation. Lets see if he can maintain it. I am doubtful lol

I think it looks like crap at the moment. Dry air is nightmare for this storm and it's running out of time. It does appear that some of the dry air is shrinking.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It appears as if the dry air is starting to lose out to the convection, Barry is slowly but surely building a better presentation. Lets see if he can maintain it. I am doubtful lol

I think it looks like crap at the moment. Dry air is nightmare for this storm and it's running out of time. It does appear that some of the dry air is shrinking.

Key word "building" a better presentation lol. At this point a u shape is better than half a storm I think It isnt pretty though. No beauty pageants being won.

[MississippiWx]

Breaking news: I spot a shower over Barry's center.

[BRweather]

This storm is officially driving me insane. I cannot recall a scenario like this. There is a center, but at the same time .... is there really a center? Lol

Every 10-20 miles left or right is the difference between a lot of rain.

[Blinhart]

It appears as if the dry air is starting to lose out to the convection, Barry is slowly but surely building a better presentation. Lets see if he can maintain it. I am doubtful lol

I think it looks like crap at the moment. Dry air is nightmare for this storm and it's running out of time. It does appear that some of the dry air is shrinking.

This is exactly how he was suppose to be looking like tonight, tomorrow is when he was suppose to get his act together.
The local met here in Lafayette, La, stated that there is a chance that the center will move under the more energetic part of the system and could cause it to move more West.

[SFLcane]

Wow horrendous satellite presentation.. those 50 winds must in one of those loose bands well away from the giant naked swirl.

[Hurrilurker]

It appears as if the dry air is starting to lose out to the convection, Barry is slowly but surely building a better presentation. Lets see if he can maintain it. I am doubtful lol

Yes, the convection is wrapping around the top from the west side rapidly, and now you can see a thin finger creeping up the east side of the large central circulation area. By tomorrow morning I expect it to be fully wrapped and then we'll see how long it takes to eject the rest of the dry air, probably won't happen completely before landfall, but to me it's looking a lot better, not just cut off all across the top like it was earlier today. Doesn't look great by any stretch, but it's trying.

[LarryWx]

From abc13 (HOU) met Travis Herzog:


8PM Thursday Tropical Update:

We should know when wake up Friday whether the forecast model aimed at Houston is right or wrong. It shows a straight west path while the others make a northwest turn. The reason that particular model, known as the UKMET, is not taken lightly is because it is historically the 2nd best performing model when it comes to hurricane tracks.

Is Houston being Jose'd by the UKMET just like FL was in 2017?

[Astromanía]

Is this not more a subtropical storm than a tropical storm? Can someone tell me the difference between both phenomena? this doesn't look healthy for me, I don´t think it will reach hurricane status

[AnnularCane]

i live in orleans parish and it isn't even raining here. gusty winds and cloudy skies but no rain. i'm sure it's coming.

Standing on a levee by the jewel streets watching a dry outer band approach good luck.

Are you in the Lakeshore area? My cousin lives in that neighborhood.

Be careful!

[Steve]

It appears as if the dry air is starting to lose out to the convection, Barry is slowly but surely building a better presentation. Lets see if he can maintain it. I am doubtful lol

Yes, the convection is wrapping around the top from the west side rapidly, and now you can see a thin finger creeping up the east side of the large central circulation area. By tomorrow morning I expect it to be fully wrapped and then we'll see how long it takes to eject the rest of the dry air, probably won't happen completely before landfall, but to me it's looking a lot better, not just cut off all across the top like it was earlier today. Doesn't look great by any stretch, but it's trying.

I think it will be later tomorrow when it wraps up. Good point about the dry air not being completely ejected by landfall, because there won't be enough time. Broken record, but the model depictions have been fairly good in advance. Based on that, it's probably even money that Barry looks his best at some point during the first 12 hours after landfall too.

[Steve]

Yeah, but we were just visiting. I live a little more than halfway from Lakeshore to downtown.

[Yellow Evan]

Not impressed with Barry tonight at all.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2019 Time : 032035 UTC
Lat : 27:54:25 N Lon : 89:25:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 992.5mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : +18.0C Cloud Region Temp : 4.1C

[MississippiWx]

Breaking news: I spot a shower over Barry's center.

Update: It's gone.