ATL: BARRY - Models
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Verdict on GFS is it's worse from here up to about Columbia, MS than NHC which is west of GFS. Everything else should be rolling soon, so we'll see if there are any surprises.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:Ukmet is finally east
Link?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:Ukmet is finally east
Surprise..........NOT! It is Jose, the sequel, starring the left biased UKMET.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
sorry wrong one my bad guys
Last edited by stormlover2013 on Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Thanks. That's a pretty major move east by it.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Where is the 0Z 7/12 UKMET run at this link? I think I only see the 12Z 7/11 run.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 88.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 0 27.9N 88.9W 1002 35
1200UTC 12.07.2019 12 27.8N 90.5W 999 41
0000UTC 13.07.2019 24 28.6N 91.4W 994 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 36 29.1N 92.5W 987 67
0000UTC 14.07.2019 48 30.1N 93.7W 987 52
1200UTC 14.07.2019 60 31.4N 94.5W 994 40
0000UTC 15.07.2019 72 33.0N 95.2W 993 27
1200UTC 15.07.2019 84 33.9N 96.0W 1000 24
0000UTC 16.07.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 0 27.9N 88.9W 1002 35
1200UTC 12.07.2019 12 27.8N 90.5W 999 41
0000UTC 13.07.2019 24 28.6N 91.4W 994 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 36 29.1N 92.5W 987 67
0000UTC 14.07.2019 48 30.1N 93.7W 987 52
1200UTC 14.07.2019 60 31.4N 94.5W 994 40
0000UTC 15.07.2019 72 33.0N 95.2W 993 27
1200UTC 15.07.2019 84 33.9N 96.0W 1000 24
0000UTC 16.07.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Sorry that’s the wrong model lol my bad
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
stormlover2013 wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Sorry that’s the wrong model lol my bad
What model was that?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
SoupBone wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Sorry that’s the wrong model lol my bad
What model was that?
Looks like it was the RUC (Rapid Update Cycle): https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/m ... -cycle-ruc
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
Canadian is jumpy but it looks like it’s between GFS and NHC. We’ll see what kind of rain it lays in a bit. Looks to be more Lafourche on up to Galliano Cut Off Larose and up from there toward Hammond look to get it worst on CMC. It’s stoll running.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=54
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=54
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
OG GFS is close to New GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=180
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=180
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
HMON is out to 15. Shows mostly barren north and west side with everything concentrated to the SE. It's fairly close to land already, so it's probably going to have to slow down if it wants to do anything. Shows 989mb and is up to about 28.85N by 21 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=21
Filling in at 27. See if it looks anything like this tomorrow night at 10. Supercharged bands, and still south of 29N, so a stall at least for those 6 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=27
EDIT - HMON is fast and landfalls tomorrow night around 1am. It doesn't show it ever really getting its act together which would be legit because of the lack of time. Better case scenario than some of the other models.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=21
Filling in at 27. See if it looks anything like this tomorrow night at 10. Supercharged bands, and still south of 29N, so a stall at least for those 6 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=27
EDIT - HMON is fast and landfalls tomorrow night around 1am. It doesn't show it ever really getting its act together which would be legit because of the lack of time. Better case scenario than some of the other models.
Last edited by Steve on Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
00z UKMET text output:
Code: Select all
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 88.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.07.2019 27.9N 88.9W WEAK
12UTC 12.07.2019 27.8N 90.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2019 28.6N 91.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.07.2019 29.1N 92.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.07.2019 30.1N 93.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2019 31.4N 94.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.07.2019 33.0N 95.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2019 33.9N 96.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models
HWRF also landfalls tomorrow night around midnight. Structure looks held in check and dry north & west, but location is similar to GFS so east of the CMC and NHC. Point is either the Hurricane models are fast, or they don't stall. We'll see if that holds true tomorrow or if maybe they grabbed onto that last center that got ejected or something.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=30
Euro in an hour and bed.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=30
Euro in an hour and bed.
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