ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Agreed MSwx.

Looks like either a vortex is slipping south around/near the broad center, or the center under the convection. You can see the spin right in the heaviest concentration. I still think it may get a bit sloppy again before tonight and tomorrow when it should look its best.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Adding that this is one of the few times an enhanced IR is better in the daytime for identifying a circulation than the visible is. Position is farther south of where I thought it would be if this is the center and not "a center" near the broad center. I have it about 27.1N 90.65W

[CrazyC83]

If the center can reform in the convection, we could see fairly quick deepening? Also, would that change the track?

[GCANE]

Oh BTW, the shift south in the recon fixes is indicative of the center reforming under the convection.
Towers are doing the trick of stacking the vorts.

[Aric Dunn]

If the center can reform in the convection, we could see fairly quick deepening? Also, would that change the track?

It sure looks like it is. strongest inflow and curved bands yet south of the recon fix.

as for track... that is up for debate. I think it would at least allow for slightly more time over water coming in a little more west.

[Aric Dunn]

Oh BTW, the shift south in the recon fixes is indicative of the center reforming under the convection.
Towers are doing the trick of stacking the vorts.

Yeah, it is almost right on top of KGRY now.

at 27.625 N 90.441 W

and even radar is showing cells actually rotating around for once lol.

[SunnyThoughts]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[tarheelprogrammer]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Winds are up and that is ahead of schedule is it not?

[MississippiWx]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Wow. 65mph already. Hurricane strength definitely a possibility. Interesting decision on the WNW motion?

[Aric Dunn]

Recon should come up right through the stronger "center" by far..

[Blinhart]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

So it looks like Cat 1 is definite now, will they up it to possible Cat 2 at landfall???? If the CoC is a little more SW than the 28.2 is right now I definitely think Cat 2 is possible as it makes landfall at Grand Chenier closer to Cameron.

[Aric Dunn]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

So it looks like Cat 1 is definite now, will they up it to possible Cat 2 at landfall???? If the CoC is a little more SW than the 28.2 is right now I definitely think Cat 2 is possible as it makes landfall at Grand Chenier closer to Cameron.

If it can get its act together ... or at least look like it will a little more. I will be in my car and on the road.

[SoupBone]

If the center can reform in the convection, we could see fairly quick deepening? Also, would that change the track?

I keep asking about the turn north or at least NW. That's supposed to have started this morning. That has to affect how far west it'll go. Even if it starts stair stepping.

[Steve]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

So it looks like Cat 1 is definite now, will they up it to possible Cat 2 at landfall???? If the CoC is a little more SW than the 28.2 is right now I definitely think Cat 2 is possible as it makes landfall at Grand Chenier closer to Cameron.

Beven calls for the Cat 1 in the discussion:

Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective
structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to
upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity
guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best
marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until
landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry
to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this
forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
forecast to occur in about 72 h.

[Steve]

If the center can reform in the convection, we could see fairly quick deepening? Also, would that change the track?

I keep asking about the turn north or at least NW. That's supposed to have started this morning. That has to affect how far west it'll go.

Soup,

Depends on the model you're looking at. NAM last night had a south move and stall. I don't think it's done that great with the storm at all. But it has hit some things. It now takes it farther west up the coast than the NHC and moves it WNW/NW after landfall. Current NHC just released forecast has it moving only 0.4 degrees north in the next 12 hours. They have it going 0.5 west during that time frame. So it's a slow crawl for now.

[Blinhart]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

So it looks like Cat 1 is definite now, will they up it to possible Cat 2 at landfall???? If the CoC is a little more SW than the 28.2 is right now I definitely think Cat 2 is possible as it makes landfall at Grand Chenier closer to Cameron.

Beven calls for the Cat 1 in the discussion:

Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective
structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to
upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity
guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best
marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until
landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry
to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this
forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
forecast to occur in about 72 h.

If I remember correctly Bevens is one of the more conservative ones for writing up these discussions. If you read his whole discussion you can see that everyone over in NHC is frustrated and confused by this system.

[SunnyThoughts]

I take it the Hurricane Hunters will be in and out pretty much continuously now up until landfall, correct?

[Aric Dunn]

from obs radar and sat..

Im going with 27.72N 90.2 west. recon will fly through shortly.

[SoupBone]

If the center can reform in the convection, we could see fairly quick deepening? Also, would that change the track?

I keep asking about the turn north or at least NW. That's supposed to have started this morning. That has to affect how far west it'll go.

Soup,

Depends on the model you're looking at. NAM last night had a south move and stall. I don't think it's done that great with the storm at all. But it has hit some things. It now takes it farther west up the coast than the NHC and moves it WNW/NW after landfall. Current NHC just released forecast has it moving only 0.4 degrees north in the next 12 hours. They have it going 0.5 west during that time frame. So it's a slow crawl for now.

Stair stepping. Yeah this has serious potential impacts for flooding moving that slow. And it looks to be finally getting organized.

[Steve]

You're right. It was never going to be a monster, but it had to go through a lot of evolution and fight off issues. I don't mean to always be repping GCANE as much as I do (or maybe I do), but I promise when he's active posting you can time **** like clockwork when you combine his posts with everything else you look at.

[jasons2k]

It’s hard to believe the Lake Charles radar is virtually clear.