ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

There is just too much pressure difference between that new Circ and the remaining old vorts for them to survive. they should get strung out shortly .. then there should be one last big cyclonic loop before we have just one center.

[GCANE]

[ColdFusion]

Puzzling to me that there is still such a lack of precip on radar. No sign of the typical heavy feeder bands setting up yet.

[northjaxpro]

It almost looks to me that the COC is nearly stationary right now.

[Red eye]

Spit out another eddy northward from that 28 90 location. We'll see if something more lasting coalesces today near the convection and halts the never-ending stream of little vortices.

Yeah, I see that. It will move the whole mess a little further north. He's running out of time, but in my opinion looks better than ever this morning.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[Steve]

Puzzling to me that there is still such a lack of precip on radar. No sign of the typical heavy feeder bands setting up yet.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/JydxLdB/Annotation-2019-07-12-111757.png [/url]

Air has moistened considerably, but it is raining some where it's not showing up. I can see the next wave coming which I'll post in a minute compared to the radar.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[Red eye]

The Lower Level Water Vapor shows the Footprint of this thing expanding. I can also see a lot less dry air in the mix compared to yesterday. Systems are go for moisture.

[Steve]

Here you go ColdFusion. This is looking roughly ENE toward Lake Pontchartrain which you can usually see out of this window. Rain shows up as only light blue/green on NOAA.lix

[GCANE]

Last vortex showed 6C core temp at 5K'

[ColdMiser123]

56 KT sustained wind by KMDJ, gusting to 62 KT:

KMDJ 121615Z AUTO 16056G62KT 2SM BR SCT021 SCT026 26/25 A2951 RMK A01

This is northeast of the center and northeast of the deep convection.

[MississippiWx]

It appears to me that the Vort that rotated through the intense convection has taken over. Easterlies can be seen taking shape to the north of this area and the old Vort to the NW is fading. I think we finally have a true center, but it is obviously exposed for now. I’d expect a few more cyclonic loops by this low as it continues to organize and feel tugs from convection.

[Aric Dunn]

It appears to me that the Vort that rotated through the intense convection has taken over. Easterlies can be seen taking shape to the north of this area and the old Vort to the NW is fading. I think we finally have a true center, but it is obviously exposed for now. I’d expect a few more cyclonic loops by this low as it continues to organize and feel tugs from convection.

yeah thats what I was mentioning earlier. the pressure difference between that circ and the other weaker ones is too great for the other to survive much longer. should do a loop back to the SW and that when things should ramp up.

[SunnyThoughts]

New Orleans city officials giving press conference for those interested. https://www.facebook.com/WKRG.News.5/vi ... 322485804/

[StormLogic]

Has Barry started N or NE hook turn yet?

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data, I would go with 60 kt for the current intensity.

There have been ugly looking hurricanes before - Earl 1998? It was totally dried out on one side and still became a cat 2.

[LarryWx]

If you had friends or relatives that live in New Orleans, would you encourage them to evacuate? I thought I just heard them saying at the new conference that they're not expecting overtopping of the levees. Is this realistic even after considering how high the Mississippi is and the very heavy rains that are expected?

[hurricaneCW]

He remains very disorganized, the center is mainly exposed and there's a lot of northerly shear that's allowing the dry air to choke him off.

The MLC is very strong but it won't be enough to bring the system to hurricane status, particularly if the LLC can't coalesce with the MLC.

Models don't show this changing much but I suspect the strong southern convective activity will continue to aid in some pressure falls. My guess is it'll be a 70mph/985-988mb storm around LF with most of the activity on its east side, very little near or west of the center.

It'll be a slow moving storm for sure due to competing steering influences next 48 hrs. He could dump 30" on someone, not good given high river levels.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well, Barry is falling apart again. It lasted around 5 or 6 hours. Now he is doing the dance in his birthday suit.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Based on all the data, I would go with 60 kt for the current intensity.

There have been ugly looking hurricanes before - Earl 1998? It was totally dried out on one side and still became a cat 2.

True, you can have a hurricane with an exposed LLC. There's no criteria for that other than just having 65 knot winds and be fully tropical.

[Aric Dunn]

Well, Barry is falling apart again. It lasted around 5 or 6 hours. Now he is doing the dance in his birthday suit.

it is actually getting better organized. should be down to one main CIrc within the next couple hours.