ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well, Barry is falling apart again. It lasted around 5 or 6 hours. Now he is doing the dance in his birthday suit.

it is actually getting better organized. should be down to one main CIrc within the next couple hours.

I am just not seeing that, personally. I believe that the vort that was just spit out of the convection, is in fact its true center.

[shah83]

Don't bother, Aric. Let the noise be.

[Aric Dunn]

Don't bother, Aric. Let the noise be.

lol

[hurricaneCW]

Well, Barry is falling apart again. It lasted around 5 or 6 hours. Now he is doing the dance in his birthday suit.

it is actually getting better organized. should be down to one main CIrc within the next couple hours.

I am just not seeing that, personally. I believe that the vort that was just spit out of the convection, is in fact its true center.

That does look like the true center and it's about to make landfall, which means all the impacts will be from the strong MLC.

[Aric Dunn]

it is actually getting better organized. should be down to one main CIrc within the next couple hours.

I am just not seeing that, personally. I believe that the vort that was just spit out of the convection, is in fact its true center.

That does look like the true center and it's about to make landfall, which means all the impacts will be from the strong MLC.

It has not fully absorbed the other vorts. it will turn west then SW again

[SueOrleans]

If you had friends or relatives that live in New Orleans, would you encourage them to evacuate? I thought I just heard them saying at the new conference that they're not expecting overtopping of the levees. Is this realistic even after considering how high the Mississippi is and the very heavy rains that are expected?

Not sure if this was meant for someone specific, but I and other S2K folks are here in New Orleans with our families/friends and not evacuating. I do have friends who left or extended vacations out of town to avoid the storm. We have many streets and neighborhoods that experience minor flooding during heavy (but normal) rains. If I lived in one of those areas and had young children or other vulnerable folks in my household, I would have considered leaving, but for convenience and comfort as much as safety.

Edit: I wanted to clarify that I and *some* other folks from S2K are staying. Others may be leaving, and I don't want to give the impression that there's one right answer here.

[Red eye]

Looks to have closed all the dry air out at the lower levels

[MississippiWx]

Our models are very detailed these days. We can actually see in our higher resolution models the center take this north jog, then west, and even back south. In other words, a cyclonic loop is shown by models.

[Frank P]

it is actually getting better organized. should be down to one main CIrc within the next couple hours.

I am just not seeing that, personally. I believe that the vort that was just spit out of the convection, is in fact its true center.

That does look like the true center and it's about to make landfall, which means all the impacts will be from the strong MLC.

That vortex is racing towards the coast... one of the better looking LLCs I've seen to date... wondering, is this the death blow for intensification?

[hurricaneCW]

I am just not seeing that, personally. I believe that the vort that was just spit out of the convection, is in fact its true center.

That does look like the true center and it's about to make landfall, which means all the impacts will be from the strong MLC.

It has not fully absorbed the other vorts. it will turn west then SW again

I'm looking at a loop on visible and that's no vort, that's the main LLC and it's heading NW towards the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

That does look like the true center and it's about to make landfall, which means all the impacts will be from the strong MLC.

It has not fully absorbed the other vorts. it will turn west then SW again

I'm looking at a loop on visible and that's no vort, that's the main LLC and it's heading NW towards the coast.

I didn't say it was not.. but it is still rotating around because of the vort to its west and the old one that just entered the convection. the two old ones should string out leaving the current circ. but that wont stop it from rotating back SW..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is an incredibly weird storm. That LLC being ejected from the convection isn't actually representative of the storm's true motion, rather it appears to be another vortex in a massive, elongated gyro.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That does look like the true center and it's about to make landfall, which means all the impacts will be from the strong MLC.

It has not fully absorbed the other vorts. it will turn west then SW again

I'm looking at a loop on visible and that's no vort, that's the main LLC and it's heading NW towards the coast.

It's the main LLC, but watch how its motion is curved on Hi-Res, not straight NW. It's definitely rotating as part of a larger gyro. It'll dissipate as it moves inland and another vortex will form close to the convection.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It looks as though Barry may peaked in intensity, which some models were showing the pressure around 995 or 993. Rain is still the biggest issue. Stay safe LA.

[Red eye]

[/quote]I didn't say it was not.. but it is still rotating around because of the vort to its west and the old one that just entered the convection. the two old ones should string out leaving the current circ. but that wont stop it from rotating back SW..[/quote]

Yeah, I think it's got one more of these iterations before it hits land. Models look about right going up the Vermilion bay.

[jasons2k]

If you had friends or relatives that live in New Orleans, would you encourage them to evacuate? I thought I just heard them saying at the new conference that they're not expecting overtopping of the levees. Is this realistic even after considering how high the Mississippi is and the very heavy rains that are expected?

Not sure if this was meant for someone specific, but I and other S2K folks are here in New Orleans with our families/friends and not evacuating. I do have friends who left or extended vacations out of town to avoid the storm. We have many streets and neighborhoods that experience minor flooding during heavy (but normal) rains. If I lived in one of those areas and had young children or other vulnerable folks in my household, I would have considered leaving, but for convenience and comfort as much as safety.

This is just my personal opinion: flooding events tend to be worse than forecast. For tropical systems, I always assume the worst. Based on what I’ve seen, if I lived there, I wouldn’t chance it. It’s a catastrophe that’s being prevented by a shoestring network of canals and levees. They have failed before and will fail again. With the river already at bankfull and the storm hasn’t even started yet...I’m pretty worried about New Orleans. No way I’d stay inside that bowl.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This convection blow up wont stop. I think it's going to pull everything together. Wow. 3 hours ago it was the ugliest system ive seen at that strength.

[cycloneye]

Levi explains it well.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1149731967195373568

[MississippiWx]

Recon doesn’t really give any debate on this lol. It is showing that the actual low is what we see spinning. That’s where the lowest pressure is located.

[TheStormExpert]

Based on all the data, I would go with 60 kt for the current intensity.

There have been ugly looking hurricanes before - Earl 1998? It was totally dried out on one side and still became a cat 2.

Don’t even get me started with ugly looking Hurricanes!

Bertha (2014) anyone!?