ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1361 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:56 pm

Just checked CIMSS
They PV Streamer really got kicked back a couple notches.
Anti-cyclone pretty much over the top of this.
Great outflow channel from the NE quad 270 degrees around to the NW quad.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1362 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:56 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:question is will the NHC upgrade ....


It should justify it being a hurricane temporarily. It is ground truth.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1363 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:57 pm

Steve wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:It looks as though Barry may peaked in intensity, which some models were showing the pressure around 995 or 993. Rain is still the biggest issue. Stay safe LA.


it hasn't peaked in intensity, and it's not going to until sometime on the 14th. We will hopefully stay safe here though.

Steve how much more hours till landfall?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1364 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:57 pm

no upgrade at 1 still 65mph pressure 993
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1365 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:57 pm

LOCATION...28.4N 90.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1366 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:58 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:MISS CANYON OIL PLATFORM just recorded a sustained wind of 76 mph with gale 87 mph.
FYI Elev: 224 ft.
12 Jul 12:15 pm 81 77 89 S 76G87 1.75 Mist SCT014,SCT019 29.19 996.3 29.43


Other obs in the area are much lower. This location is about 150 miles ENE of Barry's center. In my experience (having worked on an offshore platform), the anemometer is rarely calibrated well. The location may be atop the derrick, which could be atop a rig that's 150 feet above the water. The wind doesn't look representative of Barry's wind field.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1367 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:58 pm

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 90.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1368 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:59 pm

jasons wrote:
SueOrleans wrote:
LarryWx wrote:If you had friends or relatives that live in New Orleans, would you encourage them to evacuate? I thought I just heard them saying at the new conference that they're not expecting overtopping of the levees. Is this realistic even after considering how high the Mississippi is and the very heavy rains that are expected?

Not sure if this was meant for someone specific, but I and other S2K folks are here in New Orleans with our families/friends and not evacuating. I do have friends who left or extended vacations out of town to avoid the storm. We have many streets and neighborhoods that experience minor flooding during heavy (but normal) rains. If I lived in one of those areas and had young children or other vulnerable folks in my household, I would have considered leaving, but for convenience and comfort as much as safety.


This is just my personal opinion: flooding events tend to be worse than forecast. For tropical systems, I always assume the worst. Based on what I’ve seen, if I lived there, I wouldn’t chance it. It’s a catastrophe that’s being prevented by a shoestring network of canals and levees. They have failed before and will fail again. With the river already at bankfull and the storm hasn’t even started yet...I’m pretty worried about New Orleans. No way I’d stay inside that bowl.


Jason- I agree, in Eastern NC Mathew was a surge and wind event - until it wasn't ...luckily as it weakened coming up the coast but the rain caused many areas that have never flooded in 100 years to be underwater, roads washed out, it was worse than we expected. Some areas were cut off from access for a long time. The flood maps are helpful but they won't show what will actually flood, Florence was modeled to be a huge surge here at 12 plus feet- thankfully that didn't happen. I used to live in Plaquemines Parrish, there was a lot more land there as a buffer in the late 80's when I was there. It's shocking how Katrina and wetland erosion has affected south LA. I would be overly cautious about a minimal tropical storm if I lived there.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1369 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:59 pm

Barry may have 3-5 landfalls. One for each mesovortex and perhaps more than one for a couple of them. ;-)
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1370 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:01 pm

12z EURO has the pressure at 993 in 24 hours... Barry is already at 993mb... does that mean it isn't expected to strengthen anymore for the next 24 hours or EURO is off... initialized at 996 mb
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1371 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:01 pm

main circ is taking over and turning west now. Then SW and then things likely to start really happening..
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1372 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:03 pm

From the NHC 1pm discussion.

A motion
toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central
Louisiana coast on Saturday. After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1373 Postby GCANE » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:03 pm

Great improvement in WV last few frames.

All those little finger thingys on the south side of the big cloud.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1374 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:03 pm

In other news, the 12Z UKMET has given up on a Texas landfall. It now takes the center inland just west of Vermilion Bay around 12Z tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1375 Postby davidiowx » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:03 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:main circ is taking over and turning west now. Then SW and then things likely to start really happening..


Wouldn't that cause the storm to move much further west than models are depicting? Or is the trough that is supposed to pull Barry N stronger than the HP so it will still grab Barry (even more so with Barry strengthening)?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1376 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:04 pm

Elevation of the surface obs is probably why this wasn't called a hurricane at 18z.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1377 Postby ncforecaster89 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:05 pm

Frank P wrote:12z EURO has the pressure at 993 in 24 hours... Barry is already at 993mb... does that mean it isn't expected to strengthen anymore for the next 24 hours or EURO is off... initialized at 996 mb


It will definitely continue to get better organized and intensify through landfall. As I noted earlier, fully expect it to be at least 65 kt... and possibly achieve upwards of 75 kt...once it's able to wrap convection all the way around the center and develop an eyewall. Frictional Convergence will help further tighten the core as it reaches the shoreline.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1378 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:05 pm

davidiowx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:main circ is taking over and turning west now. Then SW and then things likely to start really happening..


Wouldn't that cause the storm to move much further west than models are depicting? Or is the trough that is supposed to pull Barry N stronger than the HP so it will still grab Barry (even more so with Barry strengthening)?


Just in this gyre not the overall system.. should still be midday tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1379 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:09 pm

GCANE wrote:Great improvement in WV last few frames.

All those little finger thingys on the south side of the big cloud.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7200/vPQbGl.png


Many of the high-res models have been showing this development happening, followed by a ramp up with intensification.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1380 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:11 pm

I’m very curious about where these other vorts are that you guys are seeing. :wink: I see one that has taken over.
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