ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Possible for center to form further south, under the higher cloud tops?

not likely anymore reforming. but it can get pulled for sure. just have to wait and see.

[SoupBone]

Realistically, how much further WSW can it go before ole UKMET starts to clang his bells? I seem to remember a few models showing this as temporary, maybe the GFS? I remember it having it wobble around before going north.

Even slight shifts west will move that massive rain pocket away from New Orleans.

[Aric Dunn]

Realistically, how much further WSW can it go before ole UKMET starts to clang his bells? I seem to remember a few models showing this as temporary, maybe the GFS? I remember it having it wobble around before going north.

Even slight shifts west will move that massive rain pocket away from New Orleans.

did you see how far the last vort rotated south ? well that far.

[AdamFirst]

The wobble watching is getting a little too intense. Like previous posters mentioned, that is a meso-vorticity spinning around a larger gyre that encompasses the center. Perhaps if it rotates toward the convection (which it looks like it's doing as we speak) it will become the primary center to track and strengthen further perhaps to hurricane strength.

[GCANE]

Nearly 50 mm/hr rain rate - impressive

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Things are happening already in the area of impact.

https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1149742585273028608

Holy crap it’s not even a hurricane and you’re already seeing storm surge impacts.

[GCANE]

Swirl's moving into 3500 CAPE air.
Might start to fill in soon.

[Aric Dunn]

The final merger of vorts looks to be happening. this kink in the wind field is the remains of the old vort. Going to see the center pull to the SW then wobble a bunch while this happens...

[Steve]

Joe B has a new video out talking about the mid level structure improving and transferring down to the squalls. It’s starting to howl a bit now with winds gusting to 30+

https://youtu.be/GNiVjqwdla8

[SoupBone]

Things are happening already in the area of impact.

https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1149742585273028608

Holy crap it’s not even a hurricane and you’re already seeing storm surge impacts.

Not to minimize that video but I've been in that exact road before during a depression and the water covered the road. It doesn't take much for that road to go under.

[Frank2]

But the bottom lines is it's still sheared from the north and is almost on the coast, though moving somewhat parallel: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

[sphelps8681]

The final merger of vorts looks to be happening. this kink in the wind field is the remains of the old vort. Going to see the center pull to the SW then wobble a bunch while this happens...


https://i.ibb.co/KjTzsDn/GOES19062019193s-Rol-AL.jpg

Well Aric you have been saying this was going to happen for awhile now. Great job!!

[GCANE]

WV now showing radially outflow 360 degrees around.
Swirl is moving into a higher lift-index environment with more unstable air.

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks like maybe the swirl is starting to head WSW?

[EasyTiger]

I just checked the surface map and noticed that the front has stalled out. Any idea as to how this affects Barry?

[Cunxi Huang]

SFMR got to 65 kt unflagged. Though the recon was close to terrain.

[aperson]

Looks like maybe the swirl is starting to head WSW?

Yep, I would expect structure to continue to improve as the cyclonic loop begins moving toward the deeper convection.

[Aric Dunn]

I just checked the surface map and noticed that the front has stalled out. Any idea as to how this affects Barry?

personally..... the hole is closed at all levels except the 850 mb level. mid and upper trough has begun to lift out and shift east with building ridging coming behind it. The ridge to the east is all that is left for steering really. its is stronger in the low levels.

Barry would have to wobble more west to see and real changes. unless the ridge to east weakens a tad or shifts. It has been stuck between these two large ridges the entire time..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Camerooski]

The shear may let up a bit, but with all of the downdrafts in the N (indicating dry stable air) I don't see Barry becoming a hurricane. And if it reaches 75 mph, it will be hard to find areas in LA that get and record sustained winds of hurricane force. This remains a rain and flood event which is usually almost always more serious than wind impacts. Hope I am right, but we shall see.

[SoupBone]

I just checked the surface map and noticed that the front has stalled out. Any idea as to how this affects Barry?

personally..... the hole is closed at all levels except the 850 mb level. mid and upper trough has begun to lift out and shift east with building ridging coming behind it. The ridge to the east is all that is left for steering really. its is stronger in the low levels.

Barry would have to wobble more west to see and real changes. unless the ridge to east weakens a tad or shifts. It has been stuck between these two large ridges the entire time..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

That's a whole lot of words for being non-committal. Messing with you.

Do you think it's going to go more west, like a Tex/LA solution? Or maybe an Allison like setup where it rides the coast?