ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

Not to minimize that video but I've been in that exact road before during a depression and the water covered the road. It doesn't take much for that road to go under.

Very true, not too surprising. If you care to look, some longer vids coming out of GI.

https://twitter.com/wchs8fox11/status/1 ... 4466499584
https://twitter.com/KTULNews/status/1149753024228798464

[Aric Dunn]

I just checked the surface map and noticed that the front has stalled out. Any idea as to how this affects Barry?

personally..... the hole is closed at all levels except the 850 mb level. mid and upper trough has begun to lift out and shift east with building ridging coming behind it. The ridge to the east is all that is left for steering really. its is stronger in the low levels.

Barry would have to wobble more west to see and real changes. unless the ridge to east weakens a tad or shifts. It has been stuck between these two large ridges the entire time..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

That's a whole lot of words for being non-committal. Messing with you.

Do you think it's going to go more west, like a Tex/LA solution?

lol...

That would be the max. it would have to rotate all the way to the SW of gyre then resume its wnw motion. However this sw rotation where its now already looks like it might shift the landfall west of the bay now.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Barry went from 993 mb to 996 mb the last pass from HH. So, it is indeed weakening some.

[Ntxw]

In case we weren't sure what it looks like in motion.

[GCANE]

Just checked CIMSS.
The overall vort column is expanding vertically.

[Nederlander]

Barry went from 993 mb to 996 mb the last pass from HH. So, it is indeed weakening some.

DMIN?

[Condor]

[jasons2k]

The winds here around Houston have picked-up a bit but also changed trajectory, slightly from NE to more NNE now. You can see the shift on HGX radar. No precip. at all though.

[Aric Dunn]

Which way do i go george ? lol

[GCANE]

Rapid Scan showing the swirl taking a turn to the south.

[Aric Dunn]

Rapid Scan showing the swirl taking a turn to the south.

Very shortly Convection is about to blow up over the center...

[MississippiWx]

As the Vort max dives south now, I would look for the convection on the east side to begin rotating upshear (north).

[ColdFusion]

Rapid Scan showing the swirl taking a turn to the south.

Very shortly Convection is about to blow up over the center...

Aric tripling down on his prediction!

[Aric Dunn]

Here is what I see happening.. it rotates down into the circle area and starts to build convection then heads off the nw then nww...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There's a single vortex, but it's clearly rotating around a broader area of rotation. Recon confirms that's where the lowest pressure is and the sharpest windshift, but it's being influenced by a very broad area of low pressure. It'll begin to move more west, and then southwest.

EDIT: Satellite frames already show this mesovortex moving west. It'll begin to move more southwest here in a few hours.

Going SW now.

[Nederlander]

Convection firing over the center

[TheProfessor]

The 3Km NAM is actually doing a great job forecasting this loop that the circulation has taken. It does a couple of more smaller loops as the storm approaches land.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

To illustrate what I'm seeing, the motion of the LLC is constrained to red circle due a broad, relatively stationary rotation to the south. Kind of like Polaris around celestial north pole, to name a non-meteorological example if you're into astronomy.

[SoupBone]

Here is what I see happening.. it rotates down into the circle area and starts to build convection then heads off the nw then nww...

https://i.ibb.co/RT1dcs5/GOES19562019193j-G9dl-Z.jpg

That would mean more of a Lake Charles/Holly Beach/Cameron landfall.

[Frank P]

wow convection really flaring up as the LLC heads back southwest towards the mass of clouds... amazing to watch..