ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1441 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Here is what I see happening.. it rotates down into the circle area and starts to build convection then heads off the nw then nww...

https://i.ibb.co/RT1dcs5/GOES19562019193j-G9dl-Z.jpg


Looks like there is a big blow that just blew up ready to gobble it up :woo:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1442 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:20 pm

Barry certainly won't be winning any beauty contests. Quite the sheared looking mess he is.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1443 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:21 pm

Low level cloud deck really starting to thinken.. convection is about to fire over it..
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1444 Postby daromaine » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:22 pm

That would mean more of a Lake Charles/Holly Beach/Cameron landfall.


Well crap.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1445 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:24 pm

There is now eastward blowing cirrus on the north end of the circulation so there shouldnt be much more shear out of the north.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1446 Postby Blinhart » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:25 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Here is what I see happening.. it rotates down into the circle area and starts to build convection then heads off the nw then nww...

https://i.ibb.co/RT1dcs5/GOES19562019193j-G9dl-Z.jpg



That would mean more of a Lake Charles/Holly Beach/Cameron landfall.


I'm thinking a touch East of there, Grand Chenier only like 10 miles east of Cameron.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1447 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:25 pm

I think I am on Team Aric as to where this vortex is headed

:team:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1448 Postby Condor » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:26 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1449 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:27 pm

Ntxw wrote:In case we weren't sure what it looks like in motion.

https://images2.imgbox.com/d7/87/qKW1ERcX_o.gif



I may be in the minority here, but Barry is beautiful. :)
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1450 Postby Clint_TX » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:31 pm

1990's Board Member here - Barry Rejects Your Notion of LandFall
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1451 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:36 pm

Dr. Rick Knabb
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That swirly going around northern part of circulation of #Barry is not the center of the tropical storm and is heading southwestward to the west side. Landfall of the actual center should occur sometime early Saturday, but life-threatening inland floods continue long after that.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1452 Postby TexasF6 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:37 pm

I have learned over the years that when Aric speaks on something? People do well in listening to what he says!!! Let the wobble watching commence...
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1453 Postby Blinhart » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:39 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Low level cloud deck really starting to thinken.. convection is about to fire over it..


So what part of Louisiana do you think the official landfall will be?? Sabine Pass, Cameron, Grand Chenier, Vermillion Bay????
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1454 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:40 pm

By the time the next recon plane gets there, the vortex should be back under the convection. Will be interesting to see what the pressure reading is then.
Also the closer it gets to the coast the frictional effect is going to tighten up the center considerably.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1455 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:41 pm



Awesome. Like 4 or 5 spins rotated up and around in that loop. Rotating a gyre is like the tropical storm version of mesos rotating around an eye. Not sure if it would have happened like that if the air to the north hadn’t been so dry the last couple days
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1456 Postby Condor » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:42 pm

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1457 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:43 pm

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 90.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1458 Postby Frank P » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:43 pm

Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY LANDFALL ON SATURDAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 90.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1459 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:43 pm

I'm wondering if there are some people that are questioning their decision to not open the Morganza spillway a month ago.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1460 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:45 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:By the time the next recon plane gets there, the vortex should be back under the convection. Will be interesting to see what the pressure reading is then.
Also the closer it gets to the coast the frictional effect is going to tighten up the center considerably.


I agree.
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