ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1149870606860640257

Yeah, been seeing this on several of the shorter-range, higher-resolution models. WPC forecasting 10-15"+ for this area over the next 72 hours...

[crimi481]

I have watched every storm in gulf for almost 40 years. I have never seen anything like this. Barry is an alien. It wants no ropes

[drewschmaltz]

Sure feels like alot of folks are pulling for Barry.

I really enjoy following along with the discussion and reading. Due to my lack of meteorological skills, I can't add much to the technical discussion. However, I always feel compelled to chime in when these sort of posts start occurring.

I think I speak for most of us when I say we are storm/weather enthusiasts. We don't track storms, analyze them, and even travel to experience them with the thought "I am here to watch this thing dissipate". We are here to watch them organize. And when they do, they become more interesting and more aw-inspiring.

Fortunately, it has absolutely no bearing on the outcome of the storm. It's important to separate that fact. I'm not going to refresh the page in hopes of "poof". And, I don't feel bad about it.

[Frank P]

This is what happens when ya get storms that come from Tennessee and Alabama .. I want my Cape Verdi storms back to track.

[chaser1]

Did I just overlook it or has the NHC 10:00 P.M. Discussion still not come out yet?

[gfsperpendicular]

The "eye" is gone.

[USTropics]

Did I just overlook it or has the NHC 10:00 P.M. Discussion still not come out yet?

10:00pm CDT/11:00pm ET I believe.

[cycloneye]

Did I just overlook it or has the NHC 10:00 P.M. Discussion still not come out yet?

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

The overall satellite presentation of Barry has improved since this
afternoon. The center is located closer to the main convective
mass and there has been some expansion of the cirrus outflow. There
has also been an increase in the convective banding over the eastern
and southeastern portions of the circulation. Both NOAA and Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft have been in the storm this
evening. The NOAA aircraft found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of
64 kt in the southeastern quadrant, which still supports an initial
intensity of 55 kt.

Barry has been able to strengthen over the past day or so despite
northerly shear and dry mid-level air. With the recent increase in
convection near the center and the expansion of the upper-level
outflow, it appears that the shear over the center has decreased.
As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Barry to become a
hurricane before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Although this
is slightly above the intensity guidance, most of the dynamical
models show some modest deepening before landfall. After the
center moves inland, steady weakening is expected and the system
is predicted to become a remnant low in about 72 hours.

Barry has been meandering over the past several hours, but the
longer term motion is 300/3 kt. The storm is expected to turn
northwestward overnight as a weakness develops in the subtropical
ridge that extends over the southeastern United States. This should
bring the center of the storm onshore along the south-central coast
of Louisiana on Saturday. By Saturday night or early Sunday, Barry
is forecast to turn northward around the western portion of the
aforementioned ridge. Barry or its remnants should recurve into
the mid-latitude westerlies by late Monday. Although the guidance
envelope has shifted slightly westward again this cycle, the NHC
track is virtually unchanged and is closest to the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models which lie along the eastern side
of the envelope.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun
to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur on
Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 28.6N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 29.3N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 31.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0000Z 32.9N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 35.8N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z 38.7N 90.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[SunnyThoughts]

update is out....They didn't change a thing, other than the fact that it is now moving at 3 mph. Why not just say its stationary? Crazy mess of a storm.

[Puddinhead]

Local NOLA met just reporting that Mississippi River will crest at NOLA much lower than originally feared. Crest now expected to come Monday at just over 17 feet, including rainfall, rather than the feared 19-20 feet. Explanation Ive seen is that storm surge has a much more difficult time propagating upriver against a high river/high velocity current than against low river/low velocity current.

[cycloneye]

Did I just overlook it or has the NHC 10:00 P.M. Discussion still not come out yet?

There is the Advisories Thread where all the advisories are being posted.

[FLpanhandle91]

Sure feels like alot of folks are pulling for Barry.

I really enjoy following along with the discussion and reading. Due to my lack of meteorological skills, I can't add much to the technical discussion. However, I always feel compelled to chime in when these sort of posts start occurring.

I think I speak for most of us when I say we are storm/weather enthusiasts. We don't track storms, analyze them, and even travel to experience them with the thought "I am here to watch this thing dissipate". We are here to watch them organize. And when they do, they become more interesting and more aw-inspiring.

Fortunately, it has absolutely no bearing on the outcome of the storm. It's important to separate that fact. I'm not going to refresh the page in hopes of "poof". And, I don't feel bad about it.

Excellent post. I remember, vividly, many arguements that occured during some of the scarier storm situations in this forums recent history (Matthew doomsday GFS model runs, Michael approaching the Florida coast, etc). Our discourse is never conducted in a manner which wishes people into harm's way. We are enthusiasts and the fact of the matter is that stronger storms are incredibly interesting to "what if" over.

[TCu]

This is what happens when ya get storms that come from Tennessee and Alabama .. I want my Cape Verdi storms back to track.

Started out as a cluster of storms/MCV out east of the Rockies on July 4.

[Steve]

Sure feels like alot of folks are pulling for Barry.

No one is pulling for Barry to do anything. But Barry does expand in a larger area than just the center of LA. It has been making changes that might impact others so all eyes are on this. We all hope and pray things will not be bad but a lot of some very smart people on this site see things changing and want to keep up with the progress of this storm. It actually helps everyone involved.

I'm not going to lie. I want a little bit of fun out of this.

[sphelps8681]

update is out....They didn't change a thing, other than the fact that it is now moving at 3 mph. Why not just say its stationary? Crazy mess of a storm.

Bur they did say guidance has shifted slightly westward.

[drewschmaltz]

This is what happens when ya get storms that come from Tennessee and Alabama .. I want my Cape Verdi storms back to track.

Started out as a cluster of storms/MCV out east of the Rockies on July 4.

I didn't realize that! I live in Central Florida. We've had some heavy rain throughout the day. July 4th I was in Rocky Mountain National Park experiencing the same storm!

[sphelps8681]

Sure feels like alot of folks are pulling for Barry.

No one is pulling for Barry to do anything. But Barry does expand in a larger area than just the center of LA. It has been making changes that might impact others so all eyes are on this. We all hope and pray things will not be bad but a lot of some very smart people on this site see things changing and want to keep up with the progress of this storm. It actually helps everyone involved.

I'm not going to lie. I want a little bit of fun out of this.

Just a little bit of excitement in the air. Can't help it.

[chaser1]

Been busy this past week and barely keeping much of an eye on "Linear Storm Barry". What's the anticipated tornadic threat for E. Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama?

[birddogsc]

That eastern side really appears to be taking over...

[ktulu909]

Sure feels like alot of folks are pulling for Barry.

No one is pulling for Barry to do anything. But Barry does expand in a larger area than just the center of LA. It has been making changes that might impact others so all eyes are on this. We all hope and pray things will not be bad but a lot of some very smart people on this site see things changing and want to keep up with the progress of this storm. It actually helps everyone involved.

I'm not going to lie. I want a little bit of fun out of this.

Look man,I get it. I get a rush out of this to an extent too.just not with the river at 17 feet. Hows life anyway TPS?