ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Convective Inhibition covering the entire state of LA.
Given the cloud cover, this may not clear out today.
This could be about as strong as Barry gets.

On second thought, looking at this a little more closely; there is a 4500 CAPE ridge over the Loop Current and surface winds are driving that air into the NE quad of Barry and into the eastern end of LA. Need to watch this since it may slowly erode SBCIN.

[Nimbus]

nothing but the center location from the calm winds and 997mb pressure at KEIR

I don't see that station reporting a pressure.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KEIR

But did get a pressure reading from EINL1 with a pressure of 994.2mb at 0400z and it is located approximately 50nm northwest of last reported position. Its pressure has gone up a little since then.

You can see the rig show nnw then calm and now SE winds. the center passed right over it. moving west to wnw..

something is not going as forecast right now. hopefully, it turns soon.

https://i.ibb.co/R91hjSP/cdtykjcguk.gif

The winds picked up with 58 knot gusts recently at KEIR and the IR satellite imagery shows a large central bloom of convection stacked over the LLC. Perhaps landfall will be delayed a few hours since Barry has apparently anchored under the convection? The squall bands often don't unwind and expand outward until after landfall which is why New Orleans has been lucky thus far.

[NDG]

Convective Inhibition covering the entire state of LA.
Given the cloud cover, this may not clear out today.
This could be about as strong as Barry gets.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6251/N04wSu.png

A lot of gusty winds in your circled area in SE LA with just a few light passing showers, I am thinking those winds are coming off a lot of downfrats from the storms to the south as the dry northerly shear hits those heavier storms causing the storms to collapse, thus the downdrafts.
The core of storms near COC just keeps having a hard time rotating around. Mid level shear has increased over it.

[GCANE]

Closest stations around Barry seem to show MSLP leveling off for the last few hours.

[Meteorcane]

Oil rig platform KEIR reporting sustained winds of 56 knots and gusts to 79 knots south of the center. Anemometer is 81 ft, so those aren't 10m winds but still shows there are some pretty strong winds (likely exceeding hurricane force in gusts) in that convective mass to the south of the center.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, as I mentioned a couple of days ago, just too much dry air choking the cyclone. Northerly shear has decapitated Barry from the very beginning. Barry never had a chance to get vertically aligned.

However, and unfortunately, Barry will leave his mark with devastaring rainfall these next 48 to 72 hours over Louisiana and the Lower MS River Valley region.

[GCANE]

Can easily see the rotation on IR Rapid Scan.
Comparing to radar, rotation is further east.
Apparently vort column is tilted to the west.
Downdraft from the convection pinching off surface infeed on the west quad.

Will be interesting to see the first vortex message from recon.

[p1nheadlarry]

Convective Inhibition covering the entire state of LA.
Given the cloud cover, this may not clear out today.
This could be about as strong as Barry gets.

On second thought, looking at this a little more closely; there is a 4500 CAPE ridge over the Loop Current and surface winds are driving that air into the NE quad of Barry and into the eastern end of LA. Need to watch this since it may slowly erode SBCIN.

How much of that is diurnally driven (nocturnal inversion)? Looks like the land /sea contrast is evident too.

[GCANE]

Convective Inhibition covering the entire state of LA.
Given the cloud cover, this may not clear out today.
This could be about as strong as Barry gets.

On second thought, looking at this a little more closely; there is a 4500 CAPE ridge over the Loop Current and surface winds are driving that air into the NE quad of Barry and into the eastern end of LA. Need to watch this since it may slowly erode SBCIN.

How much of that is diurnally driven (nocturnal inversion)? Looks like the land /sea contrast is evident too.

SBCIN is typically driven by land heating during the day. If skies are moderately clear, the heat given off by solar heating of the land warms up the boundary layer causing the temperature inversion, that comes from overnight cooling, to dissipate, allowing air to lift and convection to fire.

[GCANE]

Rain train rolling over Mobile.

[Airboy]

Hard to tell from radar and sat if it's moving anything at all right now

[RBDnhm]

Local radar loop in Southeast Texas makes it look as if Marsh Island- Pecan Island, LA will be landfall point.

[GCANE]

That high CAPE air from the GOM is eroding SBCIN over LA.
Chances for a bit more strengthening are increasing.

[Frank P]

Hard to tell from radar and sat if it's moving anything at all right now

Same here, if it’s moving it’s not moving much

[GCANE]

AF304 heading in

Already at Flight Level = 5K'
Measuring 65 knot winds

[BRweather]

Looking at shortwave IR, it seems that the lower level clouds have stopped expanding west and are now expanding to the north. I wonder if the system has been turning north more the last few hours. There is a small northward pulse of convection in the middle of the blob maybe signaling the center has changed course some. Station ENIL 1 seems to support this.

[Kazmit]

Could upwelling be an issue or is it not strong enough yet?

[weathaguyry]

Seems like the LLC is nearly stationary right now tucked under the ball of convection. It does look like it has a little more room over water since it moved a little more west yesterday.

[GCANE]

[Frank P]

Looking at shortwave IR, it seems that the lower level clouds have stopped expanding west and are now expanding to the north. I wonder if the system has been turning north more the last few hours. There is a small northward pulse of convection in the middle of the blob maybe signaling the center has changed course some. Station ENIL 1 seems to support this.

Shortwave IR certainly shows how the convection is expanding out both to the east and west... hard for me to discern where it is going..