2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139763
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The ghost of ex 93L revives.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
cycloneye wrote:The ghost of ex 93L revives.
Might be a wave east of ex 93L.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
cycloneye wrote:The ghost of ex 93L revives.
It's actually the wave east of 93L (SW of Cabo Verde right now).
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
what area you taking about? or gfs that was post here i lost?
0 likes
- crownweather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 579
- Age: 49
- Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
- Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
cycloneye wrote:The ghost of ex 93L revives.
https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1150539401040224256
2 likes
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
only gfs showing it for now look good not seen other system let see other pick up what gfs show
1 likes
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Anyone else seeing Levi’s models are all intiating on the 13, rather than today?
0 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
- SEASON_CANCELED
- Category 3
- Posts: 887
- Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
- Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
toad strangler wrote:Crickets out through 8/1
GOOD
5 likes
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:toad strangler wrote:Crickets out through 8/1
GOOD
Great to hear.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z Euro has Barry 2.0 in the long range although it doesn't quite reach the GOM waters.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro has Barry 2.0 in the long range although it doesn't quite reach the GOM waters.
Please no...I will pass on that wannabe shredded mess
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:https://i.imgur.com/oKAhfI0.gif
that bad model run some thing dont look right that low dont touch water so likely none tropical low
0 likes
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Barry 2.0 would be renamed Chantal IF it were to become a depression correct?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 4
- Posts: 907
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
- Location: Ozark, AL
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Just a Cold front expected to move deep into the SE next week and this was mentioned by NWS Tallahassee in their Discussion overnight. Would probably have to stall out for days to do what the Euro shows.
GFS for next Tuesday afternoon.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The trend that began in the short term will continue with PoPs
returning to more seasonal levels for mid to late July (40-50%)
through the weekend. Early next week the upper level pattern is
forecast to become much more amplified with a building ridge out
west and a deepening trough in the east. This pattern may send a
cold front deep into the southeast CONUS with even better chances
for showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday.
GFS for next Tuesday afternoon.
0 likes
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro has Barry 2.0 in the long range although it doesn't quite reach the GOM waters.
I would say closer to Danny 2.0 from 1997...with less development
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2425
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SoupBone wrote:Barry 2.0 would be renamed Chantal IF it were to become a depression correct?
If a new system were to develop, it would not be related to the remains of Barry. All of the models are in good agreement on the remains of Barry to gradually recurve NE and then E across the Ohio Valley, becoming absorbed in the westerlies and crossing through portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday.
The genesis appears to be associated with a forecasted frontal zone up near the Great Lakes on the 22nd of July that dives rapidly south:
You can see this process in the GFS model:
Below is the hi-res ECMWF 850mb vorticity loop as well, I would say genesis is highly suspect (vort signature develops significantly over LA, not really tropical in origination):
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
i don't any thing until after aug 15 the Atlantic and Caribbean are dead zone for tropical weather their alot sal moving cross the tropical and shear not good system and dry air too killing storms try form only area watch home grown system like barry none big models show any thing
0 likes