WPAC: invest 99W

[Nancy Smar]

99W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.8.5N.178E

[Hayabusa]

Ahh the mother of all invests... wait it's July

[doomhaMwx]

06Z GFS slightly develops this.

[Kingarabian]

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/BQxb4wd

Don't like its chances againt shear from the tutt.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 307,18.861

[euro6208]

99W INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 17, 2019:

Location: 8.4°N 171.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[Nancy Smar]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N
171.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170408Z 91GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL
PASS DEPICT FLARING STRAIGHT-LINE CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH. STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT DECREASES TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLY
WARM (30-32C) AND WILL SUPPORT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM
CALLING FOR 99W TO BECOME A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND OTHERS SHOWING NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 167.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[euro6208]