2019 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

It is difficult to gauge solely thru the different anomaly maps, as it can be distracting and smooth some differences.

Looking at 2019 minus 2018, the EPAC is indeed generally cooler, but the CPAC west of Hawaii is actually warmer than last yr.

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ee3395776946727fd408962b245a62f8df1d091b843aa28fab5f4930215a85c.gif[url]

Do they have that map in raw SST's rather than just anomalies?

Yes, here is July 11 2019 (no point in subtracting, as subtracting by the same day yields the exact same thing as if you were to do it w/ anomalies)

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/622a52a702b9d03f3e2242f99f50927fda6fabb8d712b10133c6e44be319bbdf.gif[url]

The 26C Iostherm is still pretty north based on this map. Is there a 2018 graphic that shows the SST's at this time last year.

[NotSparta]

Do they have that map in raw SST's rather than just anomalies?

Yes, here is July 11 2019 (no point in subtracting, as subtracting by the same day yields the exact same thing as if you were to do it w/ anomalies)

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/622a52a702b9d03f3e2242f99f50927fda6fabb8d712b10133c6e44be319bbdf.gif[url]

The 26C Iostherm is still pretty north based on this map. Is there a 2018 graphic that shows the SST's at this time last year.

[Kingarabian]

Yes, here is July 11 2019 (no point in subtracting, as subtracting by the same day yields the exact same thing as if you were to do it w/ anomalies)

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/622a52a702b9d03f3e2242f99f50927fda6fabb8d712b10133c6e44be319bbdf.gif[url]

The 26C Iostherm is still pretty north based on this map. Is there a 2018 graphic that shows the SST's at this time last year.

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dab09ef11f9661d4263295890ce7a6134a26dd484e4a1a3f69d92ac1d924b5b0.gif[url]

Yeah evident that the SST's are warmer to the west. Though I would say that the SSTs in the EPAC are still very capable.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd probably agree. While an above average season is still a possibility, with El Niño now expected to dissipate and the EPAC MDR isn't as warm as it has been in recent years.

Given how early July was suppose to be the month the EPAC could have bounced back and it has continued to struggle in addition to the reasoning you provided, I'm inclined to agree

It's still mid July. If current model solutions verify, we could easily catch up to last years totals by the end of July.

After Fabio formed last year, it took nearly a month until Gilma formed, June 30-July29

Yes, but August to October really had historic activity that I don't think is likely to be replicated, given conditions overall seem less conductive. Furthermore, 2018 at that point was also behind every 2014 season, making 2018's June/July overall lack of activity somewhat of an outlier when strictly dealing with the active era. Is it premature to season cancel? It kind of depends on what you define as "season cancel". I don't think we were ever going to see the levels of activity we saw in 2014 or 2016 let alone 2015 and 2018 and I stand by that idea. I do think we could come somewhat close, however.

[Yellow Evan]

Do they have that map in raw SST's rather than just anomalies?

Yes, here is July 11 2019 (no point in subtracting, as subtracting by the same day yields the exact same thing as if you were to do it w/ anomalies)

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/622a52a702b9d03f3e2242f99f50927fda6fabb8d712b10133c6e44be319bbdf.gif[url]

The 26C Iostherm is still pretty north based on this map. Is there a 2018 graphic that shows the SST's at this time last year.

This is important because this should keep the door open for a few longtrackers come September that could wrack up ACE even in a non-hyperactive year.

[Kingarabian]

Given how early July was suppose to be the month the EPAC could have bounced back and it has continued to struggle in addition to the reasoning you provided, I'm inclined to agree

It's still mid July. If current model solutions verify, we could easily catch up to last years totals by the end of July.

After Fabio formed last year, it took nearly a month until Gilma formed, June 30-July29

Yes, but August to October really had historic activity that I don't think is likely to be replicated, given conditions overall seem less conductive. Furthermore, 2018 at that point was also behind every 2014 season, making 2018's June/July overall lack of activity somewhat of an outlier when strictly dealing with the active era. Is it premature to season cancel? It kind of depends on what you define as "season cancel". I don't think we were ever going to see the levels of activity we saw in 2014 or 2016 let alone 2015 and 2018 and I stand by that idea. I do think we could come somewhat close, however.

But how do we know that this year conditions currently and will be less conducive? The SST profile does not look that much different from prior active years. The barometers we use such as the PMM and PDO look very similar to last years and prior active years. I think we can definitely get something close to 2016.

[Yellow Evan]

It's still mid July. If current model solutions verify, we could easily catch up to last years totals by the end of July.

After Fabio formed last year, it took nearly a month until Gilma formed, June 30-July29

Yes, but August to October really had historic activity that I don't think is likely to be replicated, given conditions overall seem less conductive. Furthermore, 2018 at that point was also behind every 2014 season, making 2018's June/July overall lack of activity somewhat of an outlier when strictly dealing with the active era. Is it premature to season cancel? It kind of depends on what you define as "season cancel". I don't think we were ever going to see the levels of activity we saw in 2014 or 2016 let alone 2015 and 2018 and I stand by that idea. I do think we could come somewhat close, however.

But how do we know that this year conditions currently and will be less conducive? The SST profile does not look that much different from prior active years. The barometers we use such as the PMM and PDO look very similar to last years and prior active years. I think we can definitely get something close to 2016.

Shear or vertical instability isn't as conducive IIRC and SST's have been a bit behind 2014/2015/2016/2018 levels.

[gatorcane]

Can’t hold the EPAC down too long. I fully expect it to get active again over the next two weeks. Looks like the GFS is hinting at that.

[Yellow Evan]

Can’t hold the EPAC down too long. I fully expect it to get active again over the next two weeks. Looks like the GFS is hinting at that.

GFS and ECMWF have dropped the idea of a system next weekend, actually, in recent runs.

[Kingarabian]

Can’t hold the EPAC down too long. I fully expect it to get active again over the next two weeks. Looks like the GFS is hinting at that.

GFS and ECMWF have dropped the idea of a system next weekend, actually, in recent runs.

Although it's not gangbusters, Euro has something beginning to spin up this Friday:


GFS shows it although weaker, but it has been on and off about it in the past 5 days.

[Kingarabian]

Models showing that the area of disorganized convection between 130W-120W in association with the monsoon trough has a small opportunity to briefly spin up in about 24-48 hours:

[Yellow Evan]

Can’t hold the EPAC down too long. I fully expect it to get active again over the next two weeks. Looks like the GFS is hinting at that.

GFS and ECMWF have dropped the idea of a system next weekend, actually, in recent runs.

Although it's not gangbusters, Euro has something beginning to spin up this Friday:
https://i.imgur.com/Urvvls5.gif

GFS shows it although weaker, but it has been on and off about it in the past 5 days.

hmm 12z ECMWF brought it back. Given there's at least mixed model support, could see another TD/weak TS happening.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is likely to form several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico in a few days. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system late this
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET shows three areas of low pressure past 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97E is up

[Kingarabian]

Might need 2 more yellow circles:
GFS persistent on a Cosme 2.0, with a couple of vort's tangling near 110W and eventually gaining tropical characteristics as they move NW.

Also shows an area of low pressure that develops into a decent TC as it nears 120W.

Has marginal support from the ICON and UKMET.

[Kingarabian]

Still think we should see this area get circled:


Models do spin it up.

[cycloneye]

Still think we should see this area get circled:
https://i.imgur.com/DG8veLr.png

Models do spin it up.

Good call.

A large area of disturbed weather centered about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds
appear to be somewhat conducive for some slow development during the
next few days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Still think we should see this area get circled:
https://i.imgur.com/DG8veLr.png

Models do spin it up.

Good call.

[div]A large area of disturbed weather centered about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds
appear to be somewhat conducive for some slow development during the
next few days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.[div]

I think after the 00z runs it will be 98E.

[NDG]

So looking back through the top 10 most active EPAC seasons here is what it shows.

Through the end of July there was an average of 7.2 named storms, 4.2 Hurricanes and 2.6 Major Hurricanes.
Even in 2014 which had a very busy August, through end of the July there was 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

With only 3 named storms so far this season it will have to really ramp up over the next few weeks to be within the top 10 seasons.