2019 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

So looking back through the top 10 most active EPAC seasons here is what it shows.

Through the end of July there was an average of 7.2 named storms, 4.2 Hurricanes and 2.6 Major Hurricanes.
Even in 2014 which had a very busy August, through end of the July there was 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

With only 3 named storms so far this season it will have to really ramp up over the next few weeks to be within the top 10 seasons.

It's halfway there. IF the two areas of interest circled by the NHC become TC's and IF the GFS forecasts verify (has increased support from UKMET and Euro) we should be able to reach these thresholds by the end of July.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1151593920670916615

[cycloneye]

This should be a invest shortly.

A small low pressure area has formed within a larger area of
disturbed weather centered about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Upper-level winds
appear to be conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression could form during the next two or three days while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. After that time, cool water temperatures are expected to
prevent development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[NDG]

So looking back through the top 10 most active EPAC seasons here is what it shows.

Through the end of July there was an average of 7.2 named storms, 4.2 Hurricanes and 2.6 Major Hurricanes.
Even in 2014 which had a very busy August, through end of the July there was 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

With only 3 named storms so far this season it will have to really ramp up over the next few weeks to be within the top 10 seasons.

It's halfway there. IF the two areas of interest circled by the NHC become TC's and IF the GFS forecasts verify (has increased support from UKMET and Euro) we should be able to reach these thresholds by the end of July.

https://i.imgur.com/VGQT2eM.png

I still think chances of 2019 being in the top 10 EPAC busy years are fairly low based on the activity so far, and there is nothing that looks promising in the short term. IMO.

[Kingarabian]

So looking back through the top 10 most active EPAC seasons here is what it shows.

Through the end of July there was an average of 7.2 named storms, 4.2 Hurricanes and 2.6 Major Hurricanes.
Even in 2014 which had a very busy August, through end of the July there was 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

With only 3 named storms so far this season it will have to really ramp up over the next few weeks to be within the top 10 seasons.

It's halfway there. IF the two areas of interest circled by the NHC become TC's and IF the GFS forecasts verify (has increased support from UKMET and Euro) we should be able to reach these thresholds by the end of July.

https://i.imgur.com/VGQT2eM.png

I still think chances of 2019 being in the top 10 EPAC busy years are fairly low based on the activity so far, and there is nothing that looks promising in the short term. IMO.

Certainly if this strong CCKW does not produce a few notable systems, then it will be time to bring down the numbers.

[cycloneye]

12z ECM joinss GFS on a longtracker.

[Ntxw]

CCKW is pretty strong. I'd say odds of a true longtracker (20+ ACE) is increasing.

[Kingarabian]

CCKW is pretty strong. I'd say odds of a true longtracker (20+ ACE) is increasing.

I'm expecting two Major hurricanes at the minimum. If not, then the background state has taken the year off.

[Ntxw]

Not sure which wave will take the most advantage but monstrous CCKW is coming in from the CPAC now. The sinking motion in the EPAC that has capped it will go off and possibly 97E will be the first to become a hurricane. Its life may not be so long though given it would quickly move poleward, the system behind it superimposed by the CCKW would then be candidate to become a monster/longtracker. Not long now I think before EPAC wakes up and puts on another show, fireworks and all by middle of next week.

[Astromanía]

Kingarabian, what do you think about these two probably monsters?

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, what do you think about these two probably monsters?
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I'm expecting this. They need to be a good distance away from each other or else one system will get hurt by shear.

[cycloneye]

So far of the three systems that have formed, only Barbara was a quality hurricane.(Almost cat 5) If the models are right there may be at least 2 more quality ones in the next 2 weeks that will lift a lot the ACE.

[Ntxw]

So far of the three systems that have formed, only Barbara was a quality hurricane.(Almost cat 5) If the models are right there may be at least 2 more quality ones in the next 2 weeks that will lift a lot the ACE.

I think there should be 3. 97E looks like it should become Dalila and head north/northwest. Behind it the middle one will be a longtracker and one of those Cat 3/4 looks like on models. The third is the big question mark depending on spacing. This CCKW means business slowing down/superimposing over the EPAC, the strongest this year.

[cycloneye]

Going to make the call for the new yellow (Modeled longtracker) and will be on Sunday morning. (5 AM PDT or 11 AM PDT)

[Kingarabian]

So far of the three systems that have formed, only Barbara was a quality hurricane.(Almost cat 5) If the models are right there may be at least 2 more quality ones in the next 2 weeks that will lift a lot the ACE.

I think there should be 3. 97E looks like it should become Dalila and head north/northwest. Behind it the middle one will be a longtracker and one of those Cat 3/4 looks like on models. The third is the big question mark depending on spacing. This CCKW means business slowing down/superimposing over the EPAC, the strongest this year.

Really needed 98E to develop and become Dalila in order to keep pace with the top 10 EPAC season. But there's still a good chance to catch up with them since there's model support for 4 systems including 97E to develop by August 5.

CFS showing another strong CCKW pushing through the CPAC during the first week of August which if verifies would keep the basin very active through at least mid August. The ingredients are there. The EPAC just needs to perform.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS and 12z ECMWF only have 1 system behind 98E. That's kind of underwhelming given the scope of the CCKW incoming.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS and 12z ECMWF only have 1 system behind 98E. That's kind of underwhelming given the scope of the CCKW incoming.

12z Euro out to 240 hours shows 3 systems behind 97E with EPS support:


GFS has 2 disturbances behind 97E as well but is iffy on which one develops and how/when they develop.

Regardless of what the models show developing or not developing, the seeds for development will be there.

[Kingarabian]

GFS 16 days out:

[cycloneye]

GFS 16 days out:
https://i.imgur.com/Mmt6g6e.png

The seeds do this.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS and 12z ECMWF only have 1 system behind 98E. That's kind of underwhelming given the scope of the CCKW incoming.

12z Euro out to 240 hours shows 3 systems behind 97E with EPS support:
https://i.imgur.com/37gOL1o.png

GFS has 2 disturbances behind 97E as well but is iffy on which one develops and how/when they develop.

Regardless of what the models show developing or not developing, the seeds for development will be there.

Only 1 system by day 10, though another one looks like it's forming in the ECMWF.