2019 EPAC season

[Ntxw]

One metric to watch will be ACE. 23 or so units right now, last year by August 1st it was sitting at about 37 units. Got about ~10 days to get that gap (~14 units) which is very doable. One really long, strong southerly tracking system is preferable for ACE than a bunch of short lived non-majors.

Now after August 1 in 2018 went bonkers with Hector so not expecting that kind of event, at the moment.

[Kingarabian]

My rule of thumb in the EPAC is if the Euro shows areas of organized vorticity over the open waters of the EPAC that there is a good chance to see something spin up. Especially when those systems have EPS support. I think we seen a couple of cases like this last season and in seasons prior.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: My rule of thumb in the EPAC is if the Euro shows areas of organized vorticity over the open waters of the EPAC that there is a good chance to see something spin up. Especially when those systems have EPS support. I think we seen a couple of cases like this last season and in seasons prior.

Yeah unlike over in the Atlantic where things transition back and forth, convection from land/high latitudes etc messy..the EPAC is pretty straightforward. If the Euro sees something on a broad scale, it's purely deep tropics and very likely to spin up.

[Astromanía]

I'm really confused about how strong this potential system it will be, past run was 922 mb almost cat 5 and now a little weaker 927 mb but still so strong, considering how tropical cyclones overperforms in EPAC I think it can reach cat 5, but that's based only in GFS-legacy. Now it appears that it won't be a long tracker and no two powerful cyclones like past runs, so this means, it will just a powerful cyclone of mid life near the coast of Mexico? I'm so confuse now, models have me crazy.

[Kingarabian]

I'm really confused about how strong this potential system it will be, past run was 922 mb almost cat 5 and now a little weaker 927 mb but still so strong, considering how tropical cyclones overperforms in EPAC I think it can reach cat 5, but that's based only in GFS-legacy. Now it appears that it won't be a long tracker and no two powerful cyclones like past runs, so this means, it will just a powerful cyclone of mid life near the coast of Mexico? I'm so confuse now, models have me crazy.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-legacy/2019072100/gfs-legacy_mslp_pcpn_epac_38.png

Yes you're right. GFS instead of two systems, is now favoring a monster of a system that does now allow the disturbance in front of it to develop. The disturbance that the Euro develops, the GFS delays its development until it reaches the CPAC. The Euro, UKMET, and ICON show two disturbances that develop as they move west. Both scenario's are plausible. We could see twin or triplet systems move west and become long trackers. We also could see the GFS and CMC solution where it's one large system that rides NW. Climo supports both solutions. We likely won't know until an invest area is declared.

[Astromanía]

[cycloneye]

I didn't know where to post this twit from Webb about the largest kelvin wave ever but as is now in the Pacific,I think is good to be here.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1152934109964095490

[Kingarabian]

12z suite offered no confidence with the models continuing to show little agreement.
After briefly making a 97E a TC:
12z GFS back to showing an additional 3-4 named systems by the end of its run.
12z Euro is showing what the GFS showed yesterday in combining a couple of disturbances and turning them into a larger system by the end of its run.
12z Canadian has twin hurricanes moving tracking west by the end of its run.
12Z ICON has twin weak TC's moving west by the end of its run.

[cycloneye]

12z suite offered no confidence with the models continuing to show little agreement.
After briefly making a 97E a TC:
12z GFS back to showing an additional 3-4 named systems by the end of its run.
12z Euro is showing what the GFS showed yesterday in combining a couple of disturbances and turning them into a larger system by the end of its run.
12z Canadian has twin hurricanes moving tracking west by the end of its run.
12Z ICON has twin weak TC's moving west by the end of its run.

What a mess.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF not bullish.

[Kingarabian]

00Z GFS no longer that bullish as well only shows one hurricane forming through 240 hours.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro very bearish.

[cycloneye]

Here it is Kingarabian. Missed my call but no problem. I see this as a major longtracker cane.

An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system this
weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Astromanía]

FINALLY! let's see how strong this become in the future, I hope it brings so much ACE

[Kingarabian]

Here it is Kingarabian. Missed my call but no problem. I see this as a major longtracker cane.

An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system this
weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

It's okay it's just by a day .

[Kingarabian]

Today's 12z Euro back to showing two disturbances with potential to become named as they track west. Maybe a third one @ 240 hours.


12z EPS out to 300 hours, supports the 3 system scenario.

[Kingarabian]

The Euro is now spinning this TW up in about 96 hours:


I think it needs its own circle.

The newly circled area is for the system the GFS spins up in about 5 days.

[TorSkk]

The Euro is now spinning this TW up in about 96 days:
https://i.imgur.com/T8rCW1L.jpg

I think it needs its own circle.

The newly circled area is for the system the GFS spins up in about 5 days.

It's still pretty long range

[Kingarabian]

The Euro is now spinning this TW up in about 96 days:
[url]https://i.imgur.com/T8rCW1L.jpg[url]

I think it needs its own circle.

The newly circled area is for the system the GFS spins up in about 5 days.

It's still pretty long range

It still fits within the 5 day circles that the NHC issues.

Edit: LMAO I meant 96 hours.

[Kingarabian]

The 12z CMC is much more bullish compared to its prior runs. Not likely, but plausible. We do have strong convection in association with an active monsoon trough and numerous TW's aided by a strong CCKW.