ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I have maintained that this was a TD earlier today. I think we will have Chantal tonight.

[SFLcane]

I wouldn't be surprised if they put out a special advisory soon.

Its almost as if it has stopped its westward movement or its moving very slowly

[NDG]

Winds picking up in Nassau with deep convection moving over the island.

Also the winds seen picking up on the webcam.
https://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

Conditions at: MYNN observed 22 July 2019 16:00 UTC
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.00 inches Hg (1016.0 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 knots; 9.4 m/s)
gusting to 34 MPH (30 knots; 15.6 m/s)
Visibility: 0.31 miles (0.50 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 900 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL
Present Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))
MYNN 221600Z 14018G30KT 0500 +TSRA SCT009CB BKN012TCU OV050 26/25 A3000

[boca]

Looks like it moving NNW now. It’s feeling the tug now

[floridasun78]

Winds picking up in Nassau with deep convection moving over the island.

Also the winds seen picking up on the webcam.
https://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

Conditions at: MYNN observed 22 July 2019 16:00 UTC
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.00 inches Hg (1016.0 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 knots; 9.4 m/s)
gusting to 34 MPH (30 knots; 15.6 m/s)
Visibility: 0.31 miles (0.50 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 900 feet AGL
broken clouds at 1200 feet AGL
Present Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))
MYNN 221600Z 14018G30KT 0500 +TSRA SCT009CB BKN012TCU OV050 26/25 A3000

that maybe td wind over nassau

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like it moving NNW now. It’s feeling the tug now

Don't really see that looks wnw to me

[NDG]

Pretty good convergence now to east of Andros Island moving over Nassau, I bet is catching Nassau residents and tourists by surprise.

[SFLcane]

Pretty good convergence now to east of Andros Island moving over Nassau, I bet is catching Nassau residents and tourists by surprise.

Care to estimate movement? Looks barely moving to me

[northjaxpro]

Definitely getting that comma like signature on satellite imagery. This is definitely gradually getting its act together now. I think we will get a decent moderate to strong TS out of this the next 24 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s starting to slow some more, it’s reaching the periphery of the ridge

[GCANE]

CIMSS showing a really tight symmetrical 850mb vort.
200mb in the clear with two outflow channels: The front to the NW and an ULL to the East.
This may hit the water running.
Any big flare up and I would bet they scramble recon.

[northjaxpro]

The turn is taking shape.

[NDG]

It’s starting to slow some more, it’s reaching the periphery of the ridge

It has definitely put on its break since early this morning but it could be because is trying to stay closer to the convection so it is now growing in height so it will start feeling the weakness to its north developing so it should start on a NW to NNW heading over the next 12-24 hours after moving WNW during the night, an eventual NE heading tomorrow night as it accelerates ahead of the trough by then.

[wxman57]

Still looks like a strong tropical wave, to me. Broad, weak circulation is apparent in ASCAT. Definitely doesn't qualify as a TD. Best chance of development is over the next 12 hrs or so. Most of that convection should pass east of Florida. Convection tracking NNW (maybe 340 deg). Follow the convection, not any weak circulation. Circulation always follows the convection.

[NDG]

No need to zoom in any more, closed circulation become more and more apparent.

[northjaxpro]

CIMSS showing a really tight symmetrical 850mb vort.
200mb in the clear with two outflow channels: The front to the NW and an ULL to the East.
This may hit the water running.
Any big flare up and I would bet they scramble recon.

I really hope they do not wait too late to get Recon out there while soon to be Chantal reaches peak intensity.

[floridasun78]

CIMSS showing a really tight symmetrical 850mb vort.
200mb in the clear with two outflow channels: The front to the NW and an ULL to the East.
This may hit the water running.
Any big flare up and I would bet they scramble recon.

I really hope they do not wait too late to get Recon out there while soon to be Chantal reaches peak intensity.

their dont do last min recon so go weather data from Bahama and radar,sat pic

[SFLcane]

Lol... wxman57 drops the hammer

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1153345713067220993

[floridasun78]

Still looks like a strong tropical wave, to me. Broad, weak circulation is apparent in ASCAT. Definitely doesn't qualify as a TD. Best chance of development is over the next 12 hrs or so. Most of that convection should pass east of Florida. Convection tracking NNW (maybe 340 deg). Follow the convection, not any weak circulation. Circulation always follows the convection.

wx drop bone go next invest