ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[rickybobby]

So I’m guessing going surfing will be a bad idea because of the rip currents?

[NDG]

Advisory out. Not forecast to become TS. No watches.

Not surprised, is Pasch, I can see that somebody twisted his hand for the TD upgrade. Lol.

[northjaxpro]

DMAX should give TD3 a boost later this evening.

[NDG]

Ridiculous! It's weakening now.

Have to agree with you wxman57 - there's heavier diurnal convection over the Florida peninsula now then the "depression".

Because of the time of the day.

[Frank2]

Radar returns are decreasing over the past 3 hours: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... X&loop=yes

P.S. Like Barry, in-close weak systems are a a headache for NHC and being safer than sorry (today it's called an abundance of caution) one reason for the upgrade - the other is for the mariners who might be affected by an unexpected tropical system...

Frank

[northjaxpro]

DMAX should give TD3 a boost later this evening.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radar

Select a radar site and then from the drop down menu you can view short or long range radar:
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/fl/key-west

Select a radar site and then in the left column you can view short or long range radar:
https://radar.weather.gov/

Bahamas radar:
http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/
From half way down the front page:
http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/

Long range radar from South Florida Water Management District. More radar views from "Current Weather Conditions" menu:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

This site only has short range that I see:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... 24-0-100-1

Wundermap:
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... =1&wxstn=0

[Aric Dunn]

Ridiculous! It's weakening now.

Have to agree with you wxman57 - there's heavier diurnal convection over the Florida peninsula now then the "depression".

Because of the time of the day.

Its not weakening. People always .mistake this portion of organizing as weakening.. lol

[SouthDadeFish]

I agree that it looked better earlier today. Convective pattern is quite ragged at this time. I'm not ruling out some brief intensification during diurnal max tonight, but nothing crazy. Minimal TS at best seems most likely. This classification doesn't change the impacts, however.

[FrontRunner]

Ridiculous! It's weakening now.

A good time to remind everyone what the definition of a Tropical Cyclone is. Based on my understanding a weakening TC is still a TC.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

[sunnyday]

Good work, Aric!!

[SouthDadeFish]

Ridiculous! It's weakening now.

A good time to remind everyone what the definition of a Tropical Cyclone is. Based on my understanding a weakening TC is still a TC.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

I'm not sure if teaching wxman57 the definition of a TC is the move to make right now...

[tolakram]

COD loop: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[NDG]

The tropical wave developed with no model support at all. This may be an indication of where systems may strengthen more than what models would show later on in the season.
If there is one model that did show weak development was the GFS while the Euro kept it as an open wave all the time.

[psyclone]

The tropical wave developed with no model support at all. This may be an indication of where systems may strengthen more than what models would show later on in the season.
If there is one model that did show weak development was the GFS while the Euro kept it as an open wave all the time.

Seeing this give it a go when the calendar says not much happens...Look at it as another early season foreshock. Close in devlopment can escalate really quickly at peak season. I'd suggest enjoying the relative downtime..

[northjaxpro]

I am inclined to think that this was TD earlier today around 8 a.m. as the LLC approached Andros Island. I stated so earlier this morning.Convection had waned since that time,NHC upgraded with the decent chance that this could spin up a bit more tonight before southwesterly shear makes conditions unfavorable on tomorrow. Still a chance we could see thid named TS Chantal by tomorrow morning before shear puts the whammy on it beginning late in the day tomorrow.

[CyclonicFury]

I imagine NHC will make genesis earlier in their TCR, likely 12z this morning.

[tolakram]

The tropical wave developed with no model support at all. This may be an indication of where systems may strengthen more than what models would show later on in the season.
If there is one model that did show weak development was the GFS while the Euro kept it as an open wave all the time.

There was plenty of model support IMO, just too small a system to show up well, and because it never strengthens the models don't go anywhere with it. The GFS has shown a closed isobar and decent vorticity since at least the 12Z run on Saturday. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2012&fh=54

I've been impressed by the fact the FV3 GFS did a much better job showing the vorticity than the older GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

I am inclined to think that this was TD earlier todsy aroujd 8 a.m. as the LLC approached Andros Island. I stated so earlier this morning.Convection had waned since that time,NHC upgraded with the decent chance that this could spin up a bit more tonight before southwesterly shear makes conditions unfavorable on tomorrow. Still a chance we cod see thid named TS Chantal by tomorrow morning before shear puts the zammy on it beginning late in the day tomorrow.

yeah it almost certainly was this morning. The current pulse down is quite normal during part of the life cycle.

[eastcoastFL]

Major blowup of convection across south Florida. Convection seems to be minimal now over td3.