ATL: THREE - Remnants - Discussion

[sunnyday]

Aric, now what are your thoughts on the t d coming inland at all in S Fl?

[supercane4867]

It really shouldn't take much to classify a system like this as a TD. There's no minimum wind requirement for a TD that any cluster of convection activity with sustainable LLC can be upgraded to TD. They do that a lot in WPAC with JMA marking any system with suspect circulation as a TD

[NDG]

The tropical wave developed with no model support at all. This may be an indication of where systems may strengthen more than what models would show later on in the season.
If there is one model that did show weak development was the GFS while the Euro kept it as an open wave all the time.

There was plenty of model support IMO, just too small a system to show up well, and because it never strengthens the models don't go anywhere with it. The GFS has shown a closed isobar and decent vorticity since at least the 12Z run on Saturday. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2012&fh=54

I've been impressed by the fact the FV3 GFS did a much better job showing the vorticity than the older GFS.

Yes its small size probably had a lot to do with it and the fact that it was surrounded by dry stable environment along with large sinking motion overall, it found a sweet UL spot this morning along with interaction with Andros Island helped for the weak LLC to develop.
But the Euro didn't even forecasted for the h85 vorticity to develop much, a few days ago it was showing it to be very elongated open wave with barely any convection.

[jlauderdal]

Major blowup of convection across south Florida. Convection seems to be minimal now over td3.

that blowup over sfl is typical afternoon stuff...the lack of convection over td3 might spell its doom on the next advisory

[Evil Jeremy]

Major blowup of convection across south Florida. Convection seems to be minimal now over td3.

that blowup over sfl is typical afternoon stuff...the lack of convection over td3 might spell its doom on the next advisory

Has there ever been a TD that short lived? I remember one or two TDs that topped out at 3 advisories.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like we are getting dark clouds from the west (Everglades) here in Coconut Creek.

Not necessarily related from quasi-TD3, but could be a boost for it as we approach DMAX.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Like I said a couple of days ago, you gotta watch those small naked swirls with any waves that bust through the negative conditions. They will give it a go when they find better conditions, exactly like this one did.

[jlauderdal]

Major blowup of convection across south Florida. Convection seems to be minimal now over td3.

that blowup over sfl is typical afternoon stuff...the lack of convection over td3 might spell its doom on the next advisory

Has there ever been a TD that short lived? I remember one or two TDs that topped out at 3 advisories.

i think we have had them for just one advisory

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, now what are your thoughts on the t d coming inland at all in S Fl?

Still looking like it will come close to west palm maybe inland... depends on where this upcoming convective burst develops and if it pulls the llc more north or not.

[Aric Dunn]

odly enough now that the convection as waned a little ... it looks like the center has turned back more westerly. shows us the steering currents.

[GCANE]

Pop ups over FL are going to moisten the mid layers and give TD3 something to work with.

[northjaxpro]

Yep Scott we MUST never ever underestimate any vorticity anywhere in the basin, but in our corner of the world, this is so so particularly true. I have seen it numerous times over many years how ths area in the vicinity of the Bahamas has notoriously spun up some rather well known tropical cyclones from naked swirls to almost near bare littlle vorticity shown initially. It really fascinates me to see it happen in this region quite often. Ideal UL conditions, if they exist at the time, and the warm ssts and Gulf Stream influence always make this area a favorite sweet spot for TCs to spin up quickly here close to our shores.

[GCANE]

RAP is showing a convective cap over Andros and north.
Not sure what may have intiated this.

[GCANE]

A straight due north track along 80W from about W Palm Beach to the FL/GA board.
This could strengthen more than a TD.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yep Scott we MUST never ever underestimate any vorticity anywhere in the basin, but in our corner of the world, this is so so particularly true. I have seen it numerous times over many years how ths area in the vicinity of the Bahamas has notoriously spun up some rather well known tropical cyclones from naked swirls to almost near bare littlle vorticity shown initially. It really fascinates me to see it happen in this region quite often. Ideal UL conditions, if they exist at the time, and the warm ssts and Gulf Stream influence always make this area a favorite sweet spot for TCs to spin up quickly here close to our shores.

This reminds me of TS Julia of 2016 with the quick ramp up. I think tonight a convective burst takes it up to tropical Storm Force.

[northjaxpro]

Yep Scott we MUST never ever underestimate any vorticity anywhere in the basin, but in our corner of the world, this is so so particularly true. I have seen it numerous times over many years how ths area in the vicinity of the Bahamas has notoriously spun up some rather well known tropical cyclones from naked swirls to almost near bare littlle vorticity shown initially. It really fascinates me to see it happen in this region quite often. Ideal UL conditions, if they exist at the time, and the warm ssts and Gulf Stream influence always make this area a favorite sweet spot for TCs to spin up quickly here close to our shores.

This reminds me of TS Julia of 2016 with the quick ramp up. I think tonight a convective burst takes it up to tropical Storm Force.

Oh Yeah, Julia in 2016. Developed rapidly as it traversed up the Florida East Coast. The center passed directly over my house as Julia moved due north right along I-95 through Jax area. That was an interesting night for me as heavy rain squalls and gusts to 53 mph happened that night at the house here. This is the only.occurance I can remember when I had the center of a tropical cyclone passed directly over me. Beryl 's COC in 2012 missed me just to the south and west of me.

[Aric Dunn]

The convection over florida also pulled some of the convergence away you can see the low level flow accelerate inland just before the convection started to collapse with td3. That often happens with small systems near land. should see that decrease as the sun sets.

Make a TS overnight and tomorrow is still possible.

[GCANE]

Looks like a PV Streamer maybe approaching from the west.

[Dean4Storms]

I'll trust NHC in upgrading this to a TD, but it sure surprised me.

[Dean4Storms]

Recon going to get scheduled??