2019 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is pretty CMC-ish. Same seeds but different development times/locations.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro gets the EPAC going:

[Kingarabian]

The Euro is now spinning this TW up in about 96 hours:
https://i.imgur.com/T8rCW1L.jpg

I think it needs its own circle.

The newly circled area is for the system the GFS spins up in about 5 days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Five-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a tropical
wave. Upper-level winds could support some gradual development of
this system starting late this week while the wave moves westward at
about 15 mph well southwest of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for gradual development of this system over the
weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

1. Showers and a few thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southeast of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions could become more favorable
for some development late this week or over the weekend as the
system moves westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for gradual development of this system over the
weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
southeast of the southern coast of Mexico are associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions could become a little more
favorable for development late this week or over the weekend as the
system moves westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for gradual development of this system over the
weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

[Yellow Evan]

The 0/20 is a dark horse candidate for a long tracker of sorts but only the ECMWF has really shown in and it's been off and on about it.

[Kingarabian]

The 0/20 is a dark horse candidate for a long tracker of sorts but only the ECMWF has really shown in and it's been off and on about it.

Euro has had it for the past 3 runs. There is run to run variability in just how favorable the CPAC is, which will determine how strong it will get.

[Yellow Evan]

Yea the 12z Euro has a decent hurricane that stays in the deep tropics. Confidence in genesis is increasing.

[Kingarabian]

Yea the 12z Euro has a decent hurricane that stays in the deep tropics. Confidence in genesis is increasing.

UKMET and Euro are in good agreement. CMC/ICON are close to the UKMET and Euro but have some notable differences in strength. GFS still does not show the 0/20 developing; favors latter disturbances.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS slightly unrealistically showing something (the 0/30 most likely but hard to tell) forming at 10N 97W and moves it westward. Have more confidence in the ECMWF rn atm.

[Kingarabian]

GFS in some of its runs (with varying intensities) is delaying the 0/20 development until it reaches the CPAC. Still uncertain, but model trends hinting that the 0/20 system is looking to be the first Hawaii threat of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

CFS weeklies do seem to show shear relaxing in the long range, even if it hasn't been preforming very well so far this year. Exciting times ahead if true.

[Yellow Evan]

CFS still somewhat showing an El Nino esque pattern precipation wise despite the current ENSO state for much of August.

[cycloneye]

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and cloudiness. Some gradual development of this system is
possible later this week while the system moves westward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual
development of the system thereafter while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro and UKMET continue to show 3 future systems, with development starting in about 72 hours. A lot of EPS support. I think we should see 99E soon. 00z CMC shows this scenario as well.

[cycloneye]

1. A tropical wave located almost a thousand miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and cloudiness. Some gradual development of
this system is possible later this week while the system moves
westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual
development of the system, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kingarabian]

1. A tropical wave located almost a thousand miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and cloudiness. Some gradual development of
this system is possible later this week while the system moves
westward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual
development of the system, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

GFS still not budging and refuses to show the 0/30 system.

However on IR and VIS imagery, it looks pretty good.

[cycloneye]

Now the two are mediums.

A tropical wave located almost a thousand miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and cloudiness. Upper-level winds are expected
to become more conducive for development of this system during the
next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
or early next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual
development of the system, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Astromanía]

So it seems we will see an active period soon, finally! I want to see many strong fish long tracker tropical cyclones that brings a lot of ACE , Barbara was a beauty and almost a category five I think by this date the probabilities to see a category five hurricane this season are increasing

[Kingarabian]

GFS still very bearish. 12z Euro/UKMET/CMC still show two basin crossers.