2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[SFLcane]

Euro picking up on a few waves...

[SFLcane]

Ok ok season is over see you in 2020

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1154534382318673921

[psyclone]

Ahh yes...the late July panic is here... Now it is possible the season could be a bust...but it's not the most likely scenario. Hyperactive is possible too but also unlikely. More likely is what we usually get...a burst of peak season activity that happens at some point from latter August into October. It's always darkest before dawn. Late July is effectively no man's land in the tropical atlantic. Climo ramp starts upward on August 1 but even then...the climb is from a low baseline so a quiet first half of August is also rather common. I think we're right on schedule. The commentary on the overall quiet state of the tropics around the globe is interesting but we'll need to wait a good while before painting the Atlantic with that brush.

[CyclonicFury]

Ahh yes...the late July panic is here... Now it is possible the season could be a bust...but it's not the most likely scenario. Hyperactive is possible too but also unlikely. More likely is what we usually get...a burst of peak season activity that happens at some point from latter August into October. It's always darkest before dawn. Late July is effectively no man's land in the tropical atlantic. Climo ramp starts upward on August 1 but even then...the climb is from a low baseline so a quiet first half of August is also rather common. I think we're right on schedule. The commentary on the overall quiet state of the tropics around the globe is interesting but we'll need to wait a good while before painting the Atlantic with that brush.

Agreed. I think people are putting too much stock into this "sinking branch". While it will make it more difficult for tropical cyclones to develop, it does not mean that it will shut down the Atlantic. Climatology matters. Look at 2012 and 2016. There was a burst of activity in late August despite a sinking branch. There will be waves that move off Africa that have a chance to develop. It's not like we are in a Super El Nino with the coldest Atlantic MDR on record. Arguably, the SST profile is much more conducive than last year.

[Emmett_Brown]

Ahh yes...the late July panic is here... Now it is possible the season could be a bust...but it's not the most likely scenario. Hyperactive is possible too but also unlikely. More likely is what we usually get...a burst of peak season activity that happens at some point from latter August into October. It's always darkest before dawn. Late July is effectively no man's land in the tropical atlantic. Climo ramp starts upward on August 1 but even then...the climb is from a low baseline so a quiet first half of August is also rather common. I think we're right on schedule. The commentary on the overall quiet state of the tropics around the globe is interesting but we'll need to wait a good while before painting the Atlantic with that brush.

Agreed. And if taken literally, that ECM forecast shows stable air up until 60W. If this model is even close to being correct, the result could be that disturbances may form further W once they leave the more stable air, allowing them to form closer to land. Ryan implying that ATL action will be shut down for the next 45 days based on this chart is sort of silly... maybe he is just joking.

[galaxy401]

I think 2013 has become Godwin's Law around here. Comparisons to that season inevitably get brought up the longer a hurricane season goes on.

[LarryWx]

Ahh yes...the late July panic is here... Now it is possible the season could be a bust...but it's not the most likely scenario. Hyperactive is possible too but also unlikely. More likely is what we usually get...a burst of peak season activity that happens at some point from latter August into October. It's always darkest before dawn. Late July is effectively no man's land in the tropical atlantic. Climo ramp starts upward on August 1 but even then...the climb is from a low baseline so a quiet first half of August is also rather common. I think we're right on schedule. The commentary on the overall quiet state of the tropics around the globe is interesting but we'll need to wait a good while before painting the Atlantic with that brush.

I love the word choices here: "panic"/"darkest before dawn" as if it being quiet is a bad thing lol.
That being said, I agree with the idea stated here. I just wouldn't have used those words because quiet is something I enjoy and want. But I know it would probably be too good to be true for it to last.

[psyclone]

Ahh yes...the late July panic is here... Now it is possible the season could be a bust...but it's not the most likely scenario. Hyperactive is possible too but also unlikely. More likely is what we usually get...a burst of peak season activity that happens at some point from latter August into October. It's always darkest before dawn. Late July is effectively no man's land in the tropical atlantic. Climo ramp starts upward on August 1 but even then...the climb is from a low baseline so a quiet first half of August is also rather common. I think we're right on schedule. The commentary on the overall quiet state of the tropics around the globe is interesting but we'll need to wait a good while before painting the Atlantic with that brush.

I love the word choices here: "panic"/"darkest before dawn" as if it being quiet is a bad thing lol.
That being said, I agree with the idea stated here. I just wouldn't have used those words because quiet is something I enjoy and want. But I know it would probably be too good to be true for it to last.

Naturally you're correct but in the context of a weather forum where the primary activity is watching and discussing storms having nothing to watch presents a "problem". Plus I'm having a little fun. Big fan of the Bastardi tagline "enjoy the weather it's the only weather you've got". A dead season=stress free beach weather.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1154727911322259457




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1154727920478359559

[tarheelprogrammer]

The Atlantic is poised to wake up in a week or two. When it does it could be storm after storm after storm. Hopefully the steering patterns keep them away from the US. I wonder if we will get some Caribbean runners this season?

[USTropics]

The Atlantic is poised to wake up in a week or two. When it does it could be storm after storm after storm. Hopefully the steering patterns keep them away from the US. I wonder if we will get some Caribbean runners this season?

Climate models can give some hints at this, 'short-term' (through end of August), there's some slight troughing over the EC of the U.S., but evident ridging through the CATL on the CFS runs lately.

This was the 00z run:


Long-term (ASON), there's a very 2004 feel to things (even in October, CFS shows weak ridging over the Caribbean):


CanSIPS has a very similar pattern:


The CFS has been consistently forecasting what could be a backloaded season (Sept/Oct) as well:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1154768326641487874

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1154768326641487874

Tell that to the 2005 season where it was just boiling everywhere. lol

actually 2005 is not a bad analog to this years ssts.

[psyclone]

One would think the hot zone this year will be north of the MDR in the subtropics (20-30N)...in a band from the Gulf extending eastward into the Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles.. This would favor close in homebrew threats which may limit lead time.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1154784089251205120

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1154768326641487874

Tell that to the 2005 season where it was just boiling everywhere. lol

actually 2005 is not a bad analog to this years ssts.

2005 didn't even have a particularly active MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1154768326641487874

Tell that to the 2005 season where it was just boiling everywhere. lol

actually 2005 is not a bad analog to this years ssts.

You with the 2005 comparisons!

[Chris90]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1154768326641487874

If I remember correctly the zone right off Africa was really cold last year as well, I think there was even a time when -7C anomalies were showing up, but it still managed to warm up enough to provide Florence with the fuel needed to reach Cat 4 pretty far east and Helene was also a decent hurricane far to the east closer to Africa.
Right now the 26C isotherm takes a big climb to the north starting right around 38-40W, so there's still plenty of time for tropical waves to get going once they've traveled far enough west, and honestly still plenty of time for them to consolidate and intensify before they even reach the islands. I don't think it will be too much of a hindrance.

[WeatherEmperor]

The latest NAO forcast is for it to dip into negative territory big time for the next 7-10 days possibly beyond that as well which means increase troughing near the east coast of the US.

Does anybody have any graphics/data showing the mean trough position? Is it far enough east to deflect incoming storms from the Atlantic or is it further West somewhere near the midwestern states??




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[USTropics]

The latest NAO forcast is for it to dip into negative territory big time for the next 7-10 days possibly beyond that as well which means increase troughing near the east coast of the US.

Does anybody have any graphics/data showing the mean trough position? Is it far enough east to deflect incoming storms from the Atlantic or is it further West somewhere near the midwestern states??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190726/ec5d741d413bfba1b95f6147b271e9cf.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I would checkout the weekly climate model run for the CFS or an ensemble suite if you're looking for future position. I posted the 00z run through August above (first loop).