EPAC: FLOSSIE - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Maybe a Barbara type Hurricane?

As of 12:00 UTC Jul 26, 2019:

Location: 8.7°N 93.5°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 75 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

[cycloneye]

12z GFS misses Hilo to the northeast as a Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure accompanied by disturbed weather has formed
a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some
gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form next week while the system
moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902019 07/26/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 35 46 52 56 60 61 65
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 35 46 52 56 60 61 65
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 24 25 26 26 26
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 7 9 6 4 8 8 8 14 18 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 1
SHEAR DIR 55 47 51 30 352 351 359 17 3 4 326 321 340
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 155 160 156 153 149 146 149 150 150 152 155
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 70 70 68 67 69 70 71 77 77 78
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 10 9 9 11 11 13
850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -14 -26 -25 -29 -28 -16 -22 -1 9 6 8
200 MB DIV 31 25 8 4 -3 -4 5 36 44 48 65 90 104
700-850 TADV 2 0 3 4 3 3 4 3 1 4 -1 -6 -6
LAND (KM) 638 688 769 812 853 965 1108 1226 1372 1531 1712 1857 1971
LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.1
LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.7 96.0 97.5 99.1 102.2 105.4 108.2 110.8 113.3 115.9 118.8 121.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 15 16 15 15 13 12 13 13 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 9 7 11 21 20 27 22 18 32 17 25 33 21

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 15. 26. 32. 36. 40. 41. 45.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.7 93.5

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/26/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 9.0% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 2.7% 5.7% 44.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 1.9% 15.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/26/19 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Yikes! 957 mbs closing in.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS showing a major



Recurves it out to sea.



12z ECMWF in similar agreement

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902019 07/26/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 28 35 42 49 52 54 57 60
V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 28 35 42 49 52 54 57 60
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 23 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 8 10 8 12 14 12 14 15 12 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 1 3 3 3 0
SHEAR DIR 17 35 7 345 352 2 4 3 353 329 314 326 334
SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.3 29.0 29.1 28.5 28.9 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 160 157 158 152 155 150 149 150 151 154 159
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 71 71 70 71 71 73 78 78 78 77
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -2 -7 -25 -25 -24 -31 -24 -29 -22 -7 -1 0 11
200 MB DIV 46 40 21 4 5 12 22 44 69 65 99 139 116
700-850 TADV 1 3 3 4 3 1 -4 -2 -2 -6 -11 -9 -7
LAND (KM) 678 744 778 807 827 935 1033 1148 1293 1460 1570 1703 1842
LAT (DEG N) 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.0
LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.9 97.4 99.0 100.6 103.8 106.9 109.7 112.4 115.0 117.8 120.6 123.4
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 16 16 16 14 13 13 13 14 14 14
HEAT CONTENT 7 10 19 19 22 13 25 23 11 13 28 49 50

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 34. 37. 40.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.8 94.7

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/26/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.68 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.7% 22.1% 8.5% 3.8% 0.9% 6.3% 8.1% 40.4%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.9% 7.5% 2.9% 1.3% 0.3% 2.1% 2.7% 13.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/26/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:


Location: 8.8°N 94.7°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 75 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[CyclonicFury]

Remember the ECMWF had Barbara way too strong when it entered the CPAC. In order for 90E to be a legitimate Hawaii threat, it would have to remain at a low latitude and approach from the south. I do think 90E has a better chance at being a powerful hurricane than 99E, though.

[Kingarabian]

Remember the ECMWF had Barbara way too strong when it entered the CPAC. In order for 90E to be a legitimate Hawaii threat, it would have to remain at a low latitude and approach from the south. I do think 90E has a better chance at being a powerful hurricane than 99E, though.

That's what it's doing pretty much. But what did Barbara in mostly was the shear. Also Don't forget Barbara was tracking west earlier in the season where SST's in the tropics are still playing catch up. Right now the 27C isotherm appears to be just south of the Hawaiian islands which means there's support for a hurricane moving from the EPAC to the CPAC as long as it stays near 15N.

[Kingarabian]

Wow.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/OAqHAqV.gif[url]

12z model suite show a pronounced NW/N component beginning around hour 168.

[Ntxw]

Remember the ECMWF had Barbara way too strong when it entered the CPAC. In order for 90E to be a legitimate Hawaii threat, it would have to remain at a low latitude and approach from the south. I do think 90E has a better chance at being a powerful hurricane than 99E, though.

That's what it's doing pretty much. But what did Barbara in mostly was the shear. Also Don't forget Barbara was tracking west earlier in the season where SST's in the tropics are still playing catch up. Right now the 27C isotherm appears to be just south of the Hawaiian islands which means there's support for a hurricane moving from the EPAC to the CPAC as long as it stays near 15N.

Yeah Barbara was a very early storm for that kind track. SSTs are now warmer further north and fuel is there >27C. It also has a long distance of warm water to travel yet still. Shear looks not terrible.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is a little bit weaker thru 132 hours comparing to the 12z run.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is a little bit weaker thru 132 hours comparing to the 12z run.

Also looks to be moving faster, looks like a stronger ridge on this run. So long shear is modest these systems should blow up.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS. Exciting times ahead.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure accompanied by disturbed weather is located
a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is
likely to form next week while the system moves generally westward
at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

As of 00:00 UTC Jul 27, 2019:

Location: 8.9°N 96.2°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 75 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/ka8xvsw

Yes its early, but ec thinks there is a threat atm.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902019 07/27/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 47 55 59 66 70 77
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 32 39 47 55 59 66 70 77
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 28 30 32 34 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 7 7 5 12 7 6 10 10 10 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -1 -1 2 -2 0 0 -1 2 8 2
SHEAR DIR 30 28 17 28 22 343 1 356 294 288 303 328 6
SST (C) 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.3 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 155 160 158 158 156 159 153 150 150 150 153 160 153
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 72 70 71 73 73 76 79 75 74 70
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 9 11 12 15 17 21
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -24 -24 -21 -30 -35 -25 -28 -11 6 12 11 16
200 MB DIV 44 30 -3 2 -6 9 34 54 90 89 131 119 84
700-850 TADV 2 1 2 4 3 5 2 3 7 4 -1 -3 -5
LAND (KM) 754 759 778 814 862 974 1069 1208 1366 1473 1611 1769 1942
LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.6 13.7
LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.6 99.2 100.8 102.4 105.7 108.7 111.5 114.2 116.9 119.9 123.1 126.6
STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 16 16 16 14 13 13 14 16 17 18
HEAT CONTENT 11 20 19 22 19 29 23 14 13 18 35 51 17

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 10. 11. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 27. 35. 39. 46. 50. 57.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.9 96.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902019 INVEST 07/27/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.67 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.0% 35.3% 14.6% 8.2% 3.1% 16.0% 20.2% 58.4%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 1.3% 11.8% 4.9% 2.7% 1.0% 5.3% 6.7% 19.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902019 INVEST 07/27/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##