Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: (Is INVEST 95L)

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TheStormExpert

Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#21 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 27, 2019 3:13 pm

:uarrow: Wxman57 with the hammer! Might as well just say see you next season. :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#22 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 27, 2019 3:42 pm

If indeed this tropical wave heads to the Bahamas area chances for development should be high, that’s where the best UL environment has been for the last few days in the western Atlantic basin.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#23 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 27, 2019 3:47 pm

NDG wrote:If indeed this tropical wave heads to the Bahamas area chances for development should be high, that’s where the best UL environment has been for the last few days in the western Atlantic basin.

Add in the near 90° water temperatures.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#24 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:07 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Wxman57 with the hammer! Might as well just say see you next season. :lol:


i dont think he realized what thread he was in lol
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#25 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:10 pm

euro ensembles,,

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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:16 pm

JB is on board for this wave.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1155224554069008384


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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#27 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:JB is on board for this wave.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1155224554069008384

If the Euro shows it, JB will be on board :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#28 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Wxman57 with the hammer! Might as well just say see you next season. :lol:


i dont think he realized what thread he was in lol

He’s been downing this season since it started fwiw.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#29 Postby Dylan » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:35 pm

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1155229964033302528


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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#30 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:23 pm

Looks like the 18Z GFS sends this wave into the Bahamas and Southern Florida in one week.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#31 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the 18Z GFS sends this wave into the Bahamas and Southern Florida in one week.

Yeah the vorticity signature is stronger and farther east this run.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#32 Postby crownweather » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:33 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looks like the 18Z GFS sends this wave into the Bahamas and Southern Florida in one week.

Yeah the vorticity signature is stronger and farther east this run.


And actual development around 210 hrs or 12Z on August 5.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:36 pm

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#34 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:39 pm

18z GfS is now developing this just east of Florida and barely missing the NC coast. Hopefully, the ridging does not allow a direct SE US hit.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:39 pm

GFS joins Euro.

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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:40 pm

NHC will begin to mention this wave on the 8 PM TWO.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#37 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 27, 2019 5:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:NHC will begin to mention this wave on the 8 PM TWO.

Maybe not yet, models don't really develop it until day 7-8.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 27, 2019 6:10 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NHC will begin to mention this wave on the 8 PM TWO.

Maybe not yet, models don't really develop it until day 7-8.


Yes,you are right.When is north of PR then they will do so.
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#39 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 27, 2019 6:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:NHC will begin to mention this wave on the 8 PM TWO.



Spoke too soon. :(
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles

#40 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:23 pm

The GFS ensembles are more bullish and recurve:

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