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Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean: (Is INVEST 95L)
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OuterBanker
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Hurricaneman
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles
It looks like the 0zGFS is not going to develop this, it tracks over Florida this run
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles
Model support is there from GFS Legacy, Euro, Canadian, Icon. Also may be flipping the switch as there is another possible storm is on deck
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jconsor
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Re: Tropical Wave just East of Lesser Antilles
Pattern reminds me a little bit of the development of Hurricane Gert in mid-Aug 2017.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
Wave axis is over the Lesser Antilles.
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
I'd say theres a good chance the legacy GFS is onboard showing a hurricane north of the Bahamas next weekend!
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
The last sentence from the morning discussion about this wave by the San Juan NWS is what we want to see here.
Generally speaking, this tropical wave that will be affecting the
area during the first part of the work week promises to bring
beneficial rains to areas that have been suffering from significant
drought conditions during the last several weeks to months.
area during the first part of the work week promises to bring
beneficial rains to areas that have been suffering from significant
drought conditions during the last several weeks to months.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
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Dylan
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
Idk.. the lower half of the wave seems to have the most vorticity by far. the models have been showing it farther north. really looking more like a NW carrib wave.. it should start turning NW shortly. so will see.
I noticed the EURO trended farther west from yesterday. It had the energy north PR and now it takes it into DR and North of cuba.
And the UKMEt is into the eastern Gulf.
I noticed the EURO trended farther west from yesterday. It had the energy north PR and now it takes it into DR and North of cuba.
And the UKMEt is into the eastern Gulf.
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
Aric Dunn wrote:Idk.. the lower half of the wave seems to have the most vorticity by far. the models have been showing it farther north. really looking more like a NW carrib wave.. it should start turning NW shortly. so will see.
I noticed the EURO trended farther west from yesterday. It had the energy north PR and now it takes it into DR and North of cuba.
And the UKMEt is into the eastern Gulf.
Not surprised by the UKMET having it over the eastern GOM, it continues to be biased with too much ridging in its 72-144 hr forecast.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
NDG wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Idk.. the lower half of the wave seems to have the most vorticity by far. the models have been showing it farther north. really looking more like a NW carrib wave.. it should start turning NW shortly. so will see.
I noticed the EURO trended farther west from yesterday. It had the energy north PR and now it takes it into DR and North of cuba.
And the UKMEt is into the eastern Gulf.
Not surprised by the UKMET having it over the eastern GOM, it continues to be biased with too much ridging in its 72-144 hr forecast.
yeah and the GFS continues to under do the ridging ..
the simple fact is that models have shifted farther west with the wave taking it across Hispaniola. that will change things.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
The vorticity charts are all way off except for the 500mb vort.. the location of the 850 mb vort cannot be that far east. low level winds are out of the south in that area and its cloud free almost lol.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
yeah models still initializing the vorticity/wave axis way too far east. Which would lead to the energy moving across PR vs farther west across Hispaniola or eastern Cuba.
Maybe the UKMet is just initializing the wave axis better thats why it takes into the eastern gulf.
Maybe the UKMet is just initializing the wave axis better thats why it takes into the eastern gulf.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
Aric Dunn wrote:yeah models still initializing the vorticity/wave axis way too far east. Which would lead to the energy moving across PR vs farther west across Hispaniola or eastern Cuba.
Maybe the UKMet is just initializing the wave axis better thats why it takes into the eastern gulf.
https://i.ibb.co/Sy3ZWB3/gfs-z850-vort-watl-1.png
Looking at the UKMET forecast it clearly shows more ridging on its forecast compared to the GFS and ECMWF next week.
The Euro is once again between the over ridging UKMET and the under ridging GFS.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
NDG wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:yeah models still initializing the vorticity/wave axis way too far east. Which would lead to the energy moving across PR vs farther west across Hispaniola or eastern Cuba.
Maybe the UKMet is just initializing the wave axis better thats why it takes into the eastern gulf.
https://i.ibb.co/Sy3ZWB3/gfs-z850-vort-watl-1.png
Looking at the UKMET forecast it clearly shows more ridging on its forecast compared to the GFS and ECMWF next week.
https://i.imgur.com/61LjSff.png
https://i.imgur.com/eg6yXo1.png
https://i.imgur.com/daPijOx.png
Well that is pretty normal. lol
Wish we could see more of the UKMET parameters.
However it is still odd at least right now the GFS has the wave axis so far east.
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Hurricaneman
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
The 12zGFS seems to try to consolidate this 50mi off of Jacksonville
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Re: Tropical Wave over Lesser Antilles
One nice thing this strong tropical wave is bringing some much needed rains into the Lesser Antilles and eventual Greater Antilles.
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