Easterly shear looks to be an inhibitor over the next few days. Not one model develops it over the next 5 days thus why no mention of it on the latest TWO.Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Easterly shear looks to be an inhibitor over the next few days. Not one model develops it over the next 5 days thus why no mention of it on the latest TWO.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
NDG wrote::uarrow: Easterly shear looks to be an inhibitor over the next few days. Not one model develops it over the next 5 days thus why no mention of it on the latest TWO.
Forget the models for the moment... look at it currently lol. It is much farther along then any of the models have shown thus far. Personally the models have been all over the place with genesis this season so far for some reason.
And shear does not always equal death..
If this gains anymore convection they will have no choice.. lol
We have a closed tight circ..
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
It is still somewhat broad, it needs to detach itself from the monsoon trough.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
NDG wrote::uarrow: It is still somewhat broad, it needs to detach itself from the monsoon trough.
Why i said if convection increases too much more they will have no choice.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Aric Dunn wrote:NDG wrote::uarrow: It is still somewhat broad, it needs to detach itself from the monsoon trough.
Why i said if convection increases too much more they will have no choice.
It still has a bit more to go, IMO.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Doesn't seem like a closed, defined circulation to me on that last wind analysis image. We will see if it can survive the shear. Nonetheless, it is an important reminder that we will soon enter into the true Cape Verde season, where climatology becomes more favorable for early-developing TCs. Of course, I will add the usual Hurricane Andrew disclaimer: climo isn't infallible.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
NDG wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:NDG wrote::uarrow: It is still somewhat broad, it needs to detach itself from the monsoon trough.
Why i said if convection increases too much more they will have no choice.
It still has a bit more to go, IMO.
https://i.imgur.com/mAlqdfz.png
Yeah again. Any increase in convection would fairly easily consolidate.
Also the point of this is it is not even mentioned... which is ridiculous.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
I'm sure it will be mentioned once it's time to start attaching percentages.
So when might that be?
So when might that be?
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
AnnularCane wrote:I'm sure it will be mentioned once it's time to start attaching percentages.
So when might that be?
Should have been 8am... so maybe 2pm lol
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Gfs 12z pretty much holding it together out through 72hrs. So thats new.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Gfs might actually develop it finally .. lol
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
00Z CMC spins it up in 54 hrs
00Z UKM in 72 hrs
12Z GFS Legacy develops it in the graveyard, jumps over Haiti, respins it up in Bahamas and heads toward Miami.
00Z UKM in 72 hrs
12Z GFS Legacy develops it in the graveyard, jumps over Haiti, respins it up in Bahamas and heads toward Miami.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
GCANE wrote:00Z CMC spins it up in 54 hrs
00Z UKM in 72 hrs
12Z GFS Legacy develops it in the graveyard, jumps over Haiti, respins it up in Bahamas and heads toward Miami.
12Z UKMET model text is out. Shows a spin up into almost a Tropical Storm in 144 hrs.
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.3N 52.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2019 132 15.3N 52.0W 1012 28
1200UTC 04.08.2019 144 15.9N 55.1W 1010 33
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
crownweather wrote:GCANE wrote:00Z CMC spins it up in 54 hrs
00Z UKM in 72 hrs
12Z GFS Legacy develops it in the graveyard, jumps over Haiti, respins it up in Bahamas and heads toward Miami.
12Z UKMET model text is out. Shows a spin up into almost a Tropical Storm in 144 hrs.NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.3N 52.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2019 132 15.3N 52.0W 1012 28
1200UTC 04.08.2019 144 15.9N 55.1W 1010 33
Ukmet closes the iso bars in 54 hours. And by 72 drops two mb. Then by 114 hours is down 5 mb. And continues to deepen there after. So ukmet is showing possible development in 48 to 72 hours.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
12z euro keeps it closed now woth greater vorticity through 48 hours.
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