ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

Crazy rain this morning in Anguilla, with some sporadic intense lightning and thunder. We’re walking through 3” deep pools on some of the walkways in the hotel and it’s still coming down. Turned out to be a great day to book the wife at the spa.

[SFLcane]

Don't see any 12z runs so development very likely not expected any more.

[cycloneye]

Down to 0% in 2 days and 10% in 5 days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern
Caribbean Sea has decreased since yesterday. Atmospheric conditions
as well as land effects should inhibit the development of this
system as it moves west-northwestward for the next several days.
This disturbance, however, could still produce an increase in
cloudiness and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Greater Antilles
and portions of the Bahamas during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[SFLcane]

lol...bye

[artist]

It is bringing landslides and flooding rains to the islands. That is enough to show it as an invest. To warn the islands of the flooding rains from a semi system.

[boca]

95L should get deactivated later today the way it looks.

[TheStormExpert]

I smell a TD #3 repeat if anything with that latest TWO.

NEXT!!

[Hurricaneman]

The one thing I will say is that when this moves away it may not be done as some of the models and their ensembles have a possibility of a loop back to near the east coast in the long run so I wouldn’t declare an all clear until this is guaranteed heading for Europe

[LarryWx]

95L wasn't expected to develop this early, regardless, and the various ensemble runs still suggest at least a weak area of sfc lower pressure should be in the Bahamas/FL region this weekend. And I wouldn't rule out E GOM yet due to typical model bias. Whether or not this weak low develops into a TC is a good question. I wouldn't bet on it right now but also wouldn't yet rule it out. Regardless, it may very well enhance rainfall especially along and near the SE coast. A track into the E GOM would mean more of the SE likely would get in on the enhanced rainfall.

[drezee]

95L is right on track. I hope it runs into the mountains and dissipates. If not we could have something near FL

[nativefloridian]

To my untrained eyes it looks like there's a little spin at approximately 16.2/65.8 which would be slightly southeast of NHC's mark.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[ConvergenceZone]

When the season ramps up big time in 3 to 4 weeks and gets crazy, you’ll forget this invest even existed

[CourierPR]

Has Bones declared 95L dead?

[sunnyday]

Is 95l gone since it’s not on the map here now?

[jlauderdal]

When the season ramps up big time in 3 to 4 weeks and gets crazy, you’ll forget this invest even existed

somehow this thing has produced 76 posts and 77 after i hit the submit button

[boca]

It’s actually only at 10% as of 8pm

[boca]

It looks like the greatest vorticity is about 50 miles north of Puerto Rico with 95L and the NHC has the X about 100 miles south in the Caribbean Sea from where the new thunderstorm development is occurring.

[northjaxpro]

I agree. Convection is building tonight north of Puerto Rico . 95L could find a better area of convergence and improving UL vonfitions once it nears the Central Bahamas the next day or two. We all know that region is a breeding area to spark TC development.

[northjaxpro]

I am thinking that in time we may see new vorticity max down the road with convection firing up north of PR and Hispaniola, especially if 95L interacts with Hispaniola .

[artist]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5