Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)
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alienstorm
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
I am surprise that there is still no mention of it.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
alienstorm wrote:I am surprise that there is still no mention of it.
Maybe at 8pm now that the euro shows it much more intact or even develops it along with ukmet.
All because it is much more organized currently than any of the models had shown.
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crownweather
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
crownweather wrote:GCANE wrote:00Z CMC spins it up in 54 hrs
00Z UKM in 72 hrs
12Z GFS Legacy develops it in the graveyard, jumps over Haiti, respins it up in Bahamas and heads toward Miami.
12Z UKMET model text is out. Shows a spin up into almost a Tropical Storm in 144 hrs.NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.3N 52.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2019 132 15.3N 52.0W 1012 28
1200UTC 04.08.2019 144 15.9N 55.1W 1010 33
144 hour UKMET model 500 millibar chart.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Recurve time from 12z Euro.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
with what ? The recurve?TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: No surprise!
Dont get too jumpy on it lol
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SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
No big trofs on the euro not sure why it recurves it so abruptly...
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
SFLcane wrote:No big trofs on the euro not sure why it recurves it so abruptly...
I think it is because the western extent of the 60N high is relatively weak due to the weak E US 500 mb trough. So, it recurves into the relative weakness. The way I see it TCs tend to move to higher latitudes at the first chance they get. This is the first chance it gets to recurve. A big trough is not needed. TCs recurve due to weak troughs weakening or keeping weak the western extent of highs all the time.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
LarryWx wrote:SFLcane wrote:No big trofs on the euro not sure why it recurves it so abruptly...
I think it is because the western extent of the 60N high is relatively weak due to the weak E US 500 mb trough. So, it recurves into the relative weakness. The way I see it TCs tend to move to higher latitudes at the first chance they get. This is the first chance it gets to recurve. A big trough is not needed. TCs recurve due to weak troughs weakening or keeping weak the western extent of highs all the time.
No doupt larry though a long-range 6-7 day forecast is highly suspect. Irma was suppose to also recurve at one time not saying this wave will do the same.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Due to the continuing & persistent -NAO chances of this TW recurving out to sea before the US if it starts developing before reaching the Lesser Antilles like the Euro shows are pretty high, IMO.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
SFLcane wrote:LarryWx wrote:SFLcane wrote:No big trofs on the euro not sure why it recurves it so abruptly...
I think it is because the western extent of the 60N high is relatively weak due to the weak E US 500 mb trough. So, it recurves into the relative weakness. The way I see it TCs tend to move to higher latitudes at the first chance they get. This is the first chance it gets to recurve. A big trough is not needed. TCs recurve due to weak troughs weakening or keeping weak the western extent of highs all the time.
No doupt larry though a long-range 6-7 day forecast is highly suspect. Irma was suppose to also recurve at one time not saying this wave will do the same.
Irma's final track happened because it was during a year of persistent +NAO.
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
A big surge of deep moisture is coming quickly from the east. looks like it is pushing the dry air from the north out on TPW.
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Dylan
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Forgive me for the stupid question, but do you actually tweet this from your phone or do you have staff that usually handle your user? Does this apply to all other Mets?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
A few out of the ensembles are not recurving. mostly do to being weaker from land interaction.
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Dylan
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Aric Dunn wrote:A few out of the ensembles are not recurving. mostly do to being weaker from land interaction.
https://i.ibb.co/VHrbDD3/eps-cyclones-atlantic-360-2019072912.png
Very impressive wave for this time of the year, and it’s only July 29th. What are the waves going to be like in a late August and September? Hope this -NAO holds for the next couple of months for the sake of CONUS!
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Dylan
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
AutoPenalti wrote:
Forgive me for the stupid question, but do you actually tweet this from your phone or do you have staff that usually handle your user? Does this apply to all other Mets?
Everything I post is from me. I don’t have a staff! LOL
I post my take of the tropics because of my love & passion for it. I enjoy sharing my educated opinion, and talking with other experts & enthusiasts in the field. Never stop learning.
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Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
80 percent from Euro between 24 to 72 hours...
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SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast
Aric Dunn wrote:A few out of the ensembles are not recurving. mostly do to being weaker from land interaction.
https://i.ibb.co/VHrbDD3/eps-cyclones-atlantic-360-2019072912.png
I bet those come westward with all the dry sinking around so it will take its time to develop if at all.
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