Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

[Aric Dunn]

A few out of the ensembles are not recurving. mostly do to being weaker from land interaction.

https://i.ibb.co/VHrbDD3/eps-cyclones-atlantic-360-2019072912.png

I bet those come westward with all the dry sinking around so it will take its time to develop if at all.

Actually there is a surge of moisture and energy coming from the east. I bet we see an uptick in convection in the next 24 hours.

[SFLcane]

Sure..it will pulse up and down who knows what steering will look like 7-8 days from now

[Aric Dunn]

Sure..it will pulse up and down who knows what steering will look like 7-8 days from now

yeah I did not say anything about steering lol. that we cant go past 3 days ..

I mean the GFS tries to develop it. but its also way farther south than the euro heading wnw into hispaniola with a lot more ridging too. so who knows.

[cycloneye]

Aric.

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles
southeast of Cabo Verde. Upper-level winds are expected to be
unfavorable for any significant development of this disturbance
during the next few days. However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

The reason the 12z Euro recurves this is due to a pretty big weakness where it’s at in 8-10 days. It also slows it down too due to that weakness.

[Yellow Evan]

I gotta say given the conducive intraseasonal environmental setup, I'm pretty bullish on this.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric.

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles
southeast of Cabo Verde. Upper-level winds are expected to be
unfavorable for any significant development of this disturbance
during the next few days. However, environmental conditions are
forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/r2Hcz3n.png

Lol well its something at least

[TheStormExpert]

I gotta say given the conducive intraseasonal environmental setup, I'm pretty bullish on this.

Interesting, explain more.

[CyclonicFury]

If the ECMWF is right, a good analog for this storm might be Bertha of 2014. Development in the western MDR, with strengthening in the subtropics. However, it's too soon to definitively say this wave (soon-to-be-96L) will recurve. It may pose a threat to the Leeward Islands even if recurvature occurs.

[toad strangler]

Recurving deep MDR Atlantic systems are established climo. It takes things out of climatological norm for African systems not to recurve. That’s some basic premise I always consider first and foremost. African waves almost always disappoint if your interest is seeing them make it far to the W at latitudes that would threaten either the Greater Antilles, Mexico, or the US.

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS legacy.. its weak from tracking across the islands. but again the ridging is quite different than the EURO.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1155998162969980928

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro... development in 36 to 48 hours now..

[Yellow Evan]

I gotta say given the conducive intraseasonal environmental setup, I'm pretty bullish on this.

Interesting, explain more.

Robust CCKW will pass over this disturbance in a few days. Same CCKW that spawned Dana’s, Erick, and Flossie.

[Aric Dunn]

TS by 60 hours...

[ouragans]

TS by 60 hours...

Ok let me write that down somewhere

[Aric Dunn]

TS by 60 hours...

Ok let me write that down somewhere

That was what the Euro 18z was showing.. lol

[floridasun78]

let see how it do next five days we seen other invest done not well modles want jump gun make their stronger like td 4 and invest 94 it didnt happen models not doing well with SaL and shear

[SFLcane]

18z Euro... development in 36 to 48 hours now..

https://i.ibb.co/PNkvz0b/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019072918-45-15868-608.png

Hi Aric,

Can you post a link to the 18z euro? Can’t seem to find it on there website. Thanks

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1156012304980295680