Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

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Aric Dunn
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#101 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:48 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro... development in 36 to 48 hours now..

https://i.ibb.co/PNkvz0b/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019072918-45-15868-608.png


Hi Aric,

Can you post a link to the 18z euro? Can’t seem to find it on there website. Thanks


That I cant. It is a pay site. :(
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#102 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:13 pm

Here comes that big surge of moisture. Convection should increase over the next 24hrs if the euro is to be believed. Invest tomorrow then TD .. 12 to 24 hours after that.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#103 Postby Tailspin » Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:18 pm

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ab ... s/genesis/
EC/GFS
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#104 Postby Hurrilurker » Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:37 am

Ugh. We’re scheduled to depart Anguilla in 7 days so this has my attention and is making me a bit nervous.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#105 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 30, 2019 2:42 am

I know this is way way out there, but there may be a possibility of a ridge building in the north GOM next week Friday.
A "southern" Burmuda High may set up.

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Last edited by GCANE on Tue Jul 30, 2019 3:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#106 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 30, 2019 2:48 am

CIMSS showing very broad circulation from surface to 500mb.
This is traveling west for a long time.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#107 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 30, 2019 2:51 am

Some mid-level dry air and SAL being entrained from the north.
However, a large MCV coming off the coast is feeding in moisture.

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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#108 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 30, 2019 3:28 am

UKMet getting aggressive

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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#109 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 30, 2019 3:42 am

Latest GFS-Legacy:
Looking like this could be a Carib runner into the GOM.

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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#110 Postby abajan » Tue Jul 30, 2019 3:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:18z Euro... development in 36 to 48 hours now..

https://i.ibb.co/PNkvz0b/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019072918-45-15868-608.png


Hi Aric,

Can you post a link to the 18z euro? Can’t seem to find it on there website. Thanks


That I cant. It is a pay site. :(

There's a website where the full high-res Euro can be accessed free of charge (the same data that various weather agencies pay big bucks for). I had it bookmarked on an old computer which no longer works. Thing is, even if I remembered the URL, sharing it here might entangle S2K in legal issues!
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#111 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:15 am

The Euro at 00z is not recurving as the 12z run had.

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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#112 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:37 am

I have a gut feeling this is going into the GOM with some good momentum.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#113 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:44 am

GCANE wrote:I have a gut feeling this is going into the GOM with some good momentum.
the euro and gfs legacy have plenty of ridge in place to bring it to 75w and beyond with multiple landfalls along the way :cry:
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#114 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:49 am

yeah a carrib runner is still quite possible.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#115 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:58 am

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1156141640555356162


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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#116 Postby jconsor » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:15 am

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1156142659066564608


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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#117 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:18 am



Interesting....
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#118 Postby jconsor » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:31 am

On the other hand, an important caveat about teleconnections in summer between Eastern Asia/NW Pacific and Eastern N. America/W Atlantic:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1156100103104552965


Last edited by jconsor on Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#119 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:32 am

From the San Juan NWS:

To start the next workweek, another tropical wave is projected to
arrive, though long-range forecast models disagree on the timing
and intensity of it. Regardless of model differences, a potent
tropical wave will be moving across the region, and we will be
monitoring this system for it`s potential to develop into an
organized tropical system. Widespread shower activity is likely
for next Monday and Tuesday.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#120 Postby jconsor » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:35 am

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1156000915628838914


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