ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[hurricanehunter69]

A forecast of ( NO ) classifiable systems until the second week of August is seemingly on life support now.....

[OuterBanker]

Hmmm. What a flare up. But most importantly it has missed the Hispaniola shredder.

[northjaxpro]

Hmmm. What a flare up. But most importantly it has missed the Hispaniola shredder.

A very, very important point OuterBanker and one that should have our antennas raised. The strongest vorticity has stayed north and avoided Hispaniola and PR. I mentioned last night that we may see this system really start to organize on its approach to The Bahamas within the next 24 hours as convergence gets better and upper level shear looks to slacken off some on Wednesday.

This bears watching.......

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward with no significant development
during the next few days, producing locally heavy rainfall over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, and portions of the
southeastern Bahamas. Conditions could become marginally conducive
for development by the weekend when the disturbance moves near
Florida and northwestern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[BobHarlem]

It it really missing Hispaniola or are folks being distracted by the convection shield N of PR. I'm not so sure yet, but the low level clouds still look like they are heading for Hispaniola.

[northjaxpro]

It it really missing Hispaniola or are folks being distracted by the convection shield N of PR. I'm not so sure yet, but the low level clouds still look like they are heading for Hispaniola.

That low level vort south of PR is quickly weakening and I think we will see a stronger vort develop north of Hispaniola in the next 24-36 hours as 95L pulls away northwestward toward The Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

Ok 95L...

[jlauderdal]

It it really missing Hispaniola or are folks being distracted by the convection shield N of PR. I'm not so sure yet, but the low level clouds still look like they are heading for Hispaniola.

IR is a huge distraction, lets see the visible

[northjaxpro]

Wind shear analysis this morning has only 10-15 KT around the area of The Bahamas and off the Florida East Coast. so if 95L can get through the current shear zone its in today of 30KT + for the next day or so, conditions improve significantly for it to potentially organize in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe of this week as it treks toward the Bahamas.

[boca]

The blow up is a huge distraction, the tops are already warming and today will be interesting during D max.

[SFLcane]

Looks like they started running models again on 95L this morning there was nothing since 06z yesterday.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like they started running models again on 95L this morning there was nothing since 06z yesterday.

https://i.imgur.com/93fabFS.png

Interesting indeed, but not surprising given how decent the conditions look down the road. More and more support now for this to potentially become a modest to potentially strong TS in the next 3-4 days.

[artist]

[artist]

Radar
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_l ... Z&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

Location: 17.4°N 68.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[NDG]

Surface trough is to the S & west of the deep convection, 95L is now having to face near 30 knot windshear, and even more destructive is the current mid level shear it is encountering.
With an UL trough forecasted to stay in place through the weekend over the SE US & eastern GOM I am not sure if it will be ideal for much if any development when it reaches S FL or NW Bahamas, unless it stays further offshore well away from the trough.
It may get the same ripping effects if it develops before approaching the trough like what happened to TD 3.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Boy this mornings visible sure looks like just a wave. I don't see any LLC yet, not supposed to, but it looks ways off looking at low cloud motion and surface plots. Maybe under the convection a new Vort center will from, but the last plot looks like the vort center is pretty far west of the official "center" Have to wait and see.

[USTropics]

Surface trough is to the S & west of the deep convection, 95L is now having to face near 30 knot windshear, and even more destructive is the current mid level shear it is encountering.
With an UL trough forecasted to stay in place through the weekend over the SE US & eastern GOM I am not sure if it will be ideal for much if any development when it reaches S FL or NW Bahamas, unless it stays further offshore well away from the trough.
It may get the same ripping effects if it develops before approaching the trough like what happened to TD 3.

The NW Bahamas will remain the most favorable environment if we see any development, with highest chance of convergence as it traverses around the SW periphery of the BH. Almost exactly like TD3, as you mentioned. Wouldn't rule out another quick spinup. Regardless if it is deemed a tropical identity, will bring increased moisture and gradient wind forcing over Fl this weekend.

[BobHarlem]

More likely: This thing hits Hispaniola and never does anything.
Less Likely: This forks/splits into two entities and the north shield takes over after the southern circulation dies off.

[NDG]

Boy this mornings visible sure looks like just a wave. I don't see any LLC yet, not supposed to, but it looks ways off looking at low cloud motion and surface plots. Maybe under the convection a new Vort center will from, but the last plot looks like the vort center is pretty far west of the official "center" Have to wait and see.

If you notice the convection off of the NE tip of PR is barely moving while the surface trough continues to move west away from it, a mid level vorticity might form here later on but the convection will eventually die off. Convection will reform further west closer to the wave's axis but not sustain itself until it gets into a better mid and UL environment.