Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#121 Postby jconsor » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:36 am

abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Hi Aric,

Can you post a link to the 18z euro? Can’t seem to find it on there website. Thanks


That I cant. It is a pay site. :(

There's a website where the full high-res Euro can be accessed free of charge (the same data that various weather agencies pay big bucks for). I had it bookmarked on an old computer which no longer works. Thing is, even if I remembered the URL, sharing it here might entangle S2K in legal issues!


Perhaps you mean https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/ ?
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#122 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:41 am


Yeah i noticed that yesterday. It has also brought a large plume of deep moisture with it. I am curious as to how the convection responds today.
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Re: Tropical Wave off African Coast

#123 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:42 am

jconsor wrote:
abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
That I cant. It is a pay site. :(

There's a website where the full high-res Euro can be accessed free of charge (the same data that various weather agencies pay big bucks for). I had it bookmarked on an old computer which no longer works. Thing is, even if I remembered the URL, sharing it here might entangle S2K in legal issues!


Perhaps you mean https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/ ?



I was speaking of the 18z rapid scan of the euro. That is a extra feature on weather.us.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#124 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:55 am

mods Please delete
Last edited by SFLcane on Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:58 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#125 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:56 am

If this system manages to intensify near the islands, then OTS is the most probable solution, given the overall pattern:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1156012304980295680



 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1156145985313267713



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1155993769952440320


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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#126 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:58 am

Recurve not so sure..long time to watch

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#127 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:00 am

SFLcane wrote:Recurve not so sure

https://i.imgur.com/KNr4XnQ.png

OTS is likely if the system becomes strong near the islands. Note that all the weak (TS or less) members are clustered near FL, while the strongest are OTS.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#128 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:06 am

Shell Mound wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Recurve not so sure

https://i.imgur.com/KNr4XnQ.png

OTS is likely if the system becomes strong near the islands. Note that all the weak (TS or less) members are clustered near FL, while the strongest are OTS.


There is a lot that has to happen. And previous runs of the eps had strong hurricanes going into the gulf so yeah that statement does not hold up. Every year people do this re curve re curve recurve and then welll... it does not..

Chance of of a carrib runner is still quite possible even as a hurricane.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#129 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:07 am

Shell Mound wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Recurve not so sure

https://i.imgur.com/KNr4XnQ.png

OTS is likely if the system becomes strong near the islands. Note that all the weak (TS or less) members are clustered near FL, while the strongest are OTS.


There are a couple of hurricanes near Florida on those ensembles. Comparing to 12z yesterday models did come westward. Just speculation on a 8 day forecast. Might not even develop at all
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#130 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:42 am

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
shower activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant
development of this system is expected for the next few days while
the it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds could
become more conducive for development by the weekend while the wave
continues westward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#131 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:43 am

Looks like its starting to refire.
Moisture from the MCS / MCV did the trick.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#132 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:54 am

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#133 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:58 am

The only thing that's certain is the current 240 hour forecast will has a less than 5% chance of actually verifying, there are large players to be determined. Just look at a forecast trend of the last 4 runs of the 00z ECMWF @ 144 hrs (not even going to touch a 240 hour forecast trend, too much variation):

Image

The models have consistently overdone troughing this season, and we only have to go back 3 weeks to Barry to see this (early forecast was for a FL panhandle landfall, but ultimately this ended up going much further west):

Image

For this particular system, there are quite a few atmospheric influences we need to pay attention to. I hate to use a 240 hr forecast, but using the current ECMWF, the 3 main things to focus on:

1) Ridging extending over the CATL into the Caribbean will have a major influence. Not only can a stronger high pressure to the north accelerate the forward speed of the wave, it could also keep it on a further southerly track. When/where the main vorticity is established along the wave axis also plays a role here.

2) Large trough extended over the Northern Atlantic. The position, tilt, and strength can both amplify subtropical ridging above this wave (a further west track), or further erode the western periphery and allow for a quicker recurve.

3) Shortwave trough over the East Coast/NE U.S., again the strength, timing, placement, and orientation play a massive role here in steering. If this is displaced further NE, it could have little influence and allow for this wave to go much further west. An orientation more NE to SW could even allow for a recurve very near the EC (or possible landfall).

Image

Bottom line, there's a lot of players that determine steering (not including downstream implications mets have been discussing this morning), and a -NAO doesn't guarantee a recurve, it just slightly enhances the chances.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#134 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:32 am

:uarrow: I on the other hand if anything, I think that both the Euro and UKMET have over done on ridging across the eastern US in their 96-168 hr forecast.

I do think that the pattern will eventually change to more ridging across the eastern US, but it may not do so until the end of August into September, like it did in 2004.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#135 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:44 am

NDG wrote::uarrow: I on the other hand if anything, I think that both the Euro and UKMET have over done on ridging across the eastern US in their 96-168 hr forecast.

I do think that the pattern will eventually change to more ridging across the eastern US, but it may not do so until the end of August into September, like it did in 2004.


The UKMET has certainly over done ridging (a reoccurring model bias this season perhaps), but the ECMWF has been solid:
Image

Image

The upcoming pattern is difficult though, and I'd expect all the models will fall below the 0.9 anom correlation next week. It will be interesting to see how the Scandinavian high retrogression impacts steering flow as well. If I had to make a forecast, I would lean towards recurve as well (given current position of ECMWF development), but it's certainly not a guarantee.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#136 Postby ava_ati » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:48 am

I will wait for the storm to actually form before I start hedging my bets on ANY track. Updated GFS & GEFS still see nothing (Let me clarify, they don't see it forming as early as the ECMWF nor anywhere as strong as some of the members), this wouldn't be the first time the Euro has developed a ghost storm. At least we are talking about ghost TS's and not ghost 940 mb monsters though... well except UKMET and Barry, it was forecasting that storm like some of the members here wish cast.
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#137 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:55 am

USTropics wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: I on the other hand if anything, I think that both the Euro and UKMET have over done on ridging across the eastern US in their 96-168 hr forecast.

I do think that the pattern will eventually change to more ridging across the eastern US, but it may not do so until the end of August into September, like it did in 2004.


The UKMET has certainly over done ridging (a reoccurring model bias this season perhaps), but the ECMWF has been solid:
https://i.imgur.com/1oDC5By.png

https://i.imgur.com/I0ohJ87.png

The upcoming pattern is difficult though, and I'd expect all the models will fall below the 0.9 anom correlation next week. It will be interesting to see how the Scandinavian high retrogression impacts steering flow as well. If I had to make a forecast, I would lean towards recurve as well (given current position of ECMWF development), but it's certainly not a guarantee.


The Euro has also been biased with ridging across the eastern US, but more in the SE US, like I said in its 96-168 hr forecast.
The chart that showed of the Euro's good performance is for the whole northern hemisphere over all, but it has clearly not performing too well with the troughiness across the SE US.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#138 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:58 am

ava_ati wrote:I will wait for the storm to actually form before I start hedging my bets on ANY track. Updated GFS & GEFS still see nothing (Let me clarify, they don't see it forming as early as the ECMWF nor anywhere as strong as some of the members), this wouldn't be the first time the Euro has developed a ghost storm. At least we are talking about ghost TS's and not ghost 940 mb monsters though... well except UKMET and Barry, it was forecasting that storm like some of the members here wish cast.


Much like 95L, interaction with Hispaniola is evident on the 06z operational GFS, but does spinup thereafter:
Image
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#139 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:00 am

NDG wrote:
USTropics wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: I on the other hand if anything, I think that both the Euro and UKMET have over done on ridging across the eastern US in their 96-168 hr forecast.

I do think that the pattern will eventually change to more ridging across the eastern US, but it may not do so until the end of August into September, like it did in 2004.


The UKMET has certainly over done ridging (a reoccurring model bias this season perhaps), but the ECMWF has been solid:
https://i.imgur.com/1oDC5By.png

https://i.imgur.com/I0ohJ87.png

The upcoming pattern is difficult though, and I'd expect all the models will fall below the 0.9 anom correlation next week. It will be interesting to see how the Scandinavian high retrogression impacts steering flow as well. If I had to make a forecast, I would lean towards recurve as well (given current position of ECMWF development), but it's certainly not a guarantee.


The Euro has also been biased with ridging across the eastern US, but more in the SE US, like I said in its 96-168 hr forecast.
The chart that showed of the Euro's good performance is for the whole northern hemisphere over all, but it has clearly not performing too well with the troughiness across the SE US.

https://i.imgur.com/ZvWwNtx.gif


I wouldn't exactly call it a bias, but certainly a slightly failed forecast with the current digging of the EC trough (and with that being said, still verified as the most accurate of the available global models). The UKMET has consistently done this with numerous troughs, however (including troughing along the NW/West Coast).
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Re: Tropical Wave south of CV Islands

#140 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:14 am

I expect this trough pattern to last the next 2-3 weeks then from about last 2 weeks of August into sept we should see a more August type sept pattern, this is like a fall pattern right now
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